Short term view - final spike higher.
Intermediate term view - after the final move higher correction for a few weeks.
Boring week with sideway price action. We saw a small move lower and the final move higher should be around the corner. Overall for a month since mid-December the price moves in a tight range and time is running out.... volatility should rise soon and either we will see final spike higher or the price will reverse lower.
A month ago I have shown different US indexes... they are moving as expected, which does not really help us:). Nasdaq looks like finished impulse from the November low, SP500/NYSE mixed could be counted as finished or could extend a little bit higher, DJI,DJT,RUT,XLF - I do not see a way to count this as a reversal it should be wave 4 with one final spike higher before a bigger pullback.
As I wrote last week I favor the scenario with the indexes moving higher before a reversal.... next week we should have our answer.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - move higher(green) expected, but watch the support line. The price has nothing to do below support,the gap and MA200. Below this level something bearish(red) has started.
Intermediate term - no change waiting to see how a correction will look like. RSI either it rises from the trend line for a top with a divergence or accelerates and breaks below the trend line. The same for MACD - either it rises for a top with a divergence or it accelerates lower.
Long term - no change, waiting for the wave from Feb.2016 to be finished.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - the same like last week. Short term no reversal signs, but double divergences on some indicators suggesting that something bearish is around the corner.
McClellan Oscillator - making lower highs.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal, in overbought territory for a while.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal, but double divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - second high still buy signal above 75, but double divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - very tight BB again and complacency.... volatility will rise soon.
Advance-Decline Issues - one more push to overbought levels will look better.
Day 9 of the second 40 day cycle.
Week 10 of the 20 week cycle... indexes should be nearing a top.
Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
9-13-9 finished last week, but no price flip so far.... no sell signal.