Intermediate term view - believe it or not I do not see bullish signals so the next bigger move is lower.
Quiet week, nothing has changed only the leader, the technology sector plunged on Friday... probably the indexes are waiting for FOMC next week. Currently I see two possible patterns - wave B from expanded flat and and some kind of ED for wave iii or v of 3. The only index which really moved higher since March is NASDAQ. Now it has 5 waves from the bottom in March with multiple RSI divergences.... it will be really very surprising if it continue the rally. Yesterday feels like climax for Nasdaq/SOX and VIX... it is getting more and more difficult to see something bullish - call me broken clock or wrong big time:) but this is what I see. TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the two short term patterns - expanded flat and ED.
Intermediate term - the same like last week, now Nasdaq joint to the party with MACD/RSI divergences. On this chart is shown expanding ED.
Long term - the bull market is not over, but small divergences MACD/RSI are visible so correction is expected.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same like last week, hanging somewhere in the middle without clear signal. They are showing weakness and not strength that is why I think the next move is lower.
McClellan Oscillator - slightly above zero with long term divergence lower tops since late 2016.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, but with double divergence since March.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - below 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - trying to reach the overbought territory.
Fear Indicator VIX - looks like climax, lowest level since 1993 and sharp reversal.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
HURST CYCLES
Day 16 of the 40 day cycle. The low for the 20 day cycle will show us if we will see one more high.
Week 10 of the last 20 week cycle, waiting for the top of the 18 month cycle.
Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
On the weekly chart we have finished combo/countdown, but no price flip. On the daily chart setup was finished this week.
Russell2000
Thank you much for updates! what are your thoughts on R2K? This week price action invalidated the triangle idea. Could it be done too? i was looking at an ED from the march low, not sure if correct?
ReplyDeleteYes, I am looking ED from the March low too. Alternate if it is done, it is some kind of expanding pattern when you connect all 4 tops since Dec.2016 and the two bottoms.
DeleteKrasi, do you mind showing a graph of what you mean?
ReplyDeleteCase1. if it is an ED from march low, do you think it is done too?
if not, what should target for wav5 of that ED be? wave5 with respect to wave3
Case2. expanding pattern....im confused there. Maybe a graph might help me. is it done too or more to go and likely where. Thank you very much
Posted a chart. As I have mentioned the triangle was not in sync with the other indexes and this two patterns are the same like for SP500. Red likely expanded flat and ED green.
DeleteThank you Krasi!!! Very clear. One question however, you have the ED as contracting. Can it be an expanding or are those rare in wave5s. thx
DeleteLess likely to be expanding ED they are rare. This second move should continue higher it needs to be longer than the first one for expanding pattern.
Deletethx Krasi. Lets see what plays out. Whether expanded flat or contracting ED. Either way, a move lower should be imminent. thx
ReplyDeleteDo you expect gold miner would also go down for another wave? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteYes, the important low should be in Q4 this year.
DeleteThanks. How about short term and intermediate term? I recall you mentioned 20 days low? When should we expect it? And 20 weeks low? half year low? Usually 20 weeks/half year low should be by the end of May?
DeleteDay 26 it should be close to a bottom.
DeleteHalf year cycle low/20 week low was in May the next one is running.
Week 6 it is moving higher,but very weak as it should be.
Just confirm today is Day 22? Thanks. I feel gold miner should have another down wave to finish pattern in hourly chart.
DeleteHi, so you are thinking low in Q4 and not in July/August? Can you post GDX chart in the next update?
ReplyDeleteOk, I will post a chart.
DeleteHi Krasi, Thanks for updates.May I ask for a favour, what is the method you use to calculate the Price Retracements for each wave of Elliot Wave? if you could let me know about anysource or best method to have most success that is much appreciated.
ReplyDeleteFibonacci is used with EW to measure targets... I do not focus so much on targets more on finished pattern in a time window(cycle ripe for a low/high).
DeleteUsually I look at the Fibonacci targets/MAs/resistance or support levels/previous congestion zones etc. and you will see 2-3 of them pointing to the same area - this is the most likely target.
Perfect.. appreciate it, Thanks alot
Delete