Intermediate term view - expecting intermediate term top and sharp correction.
Choppy sideway week.... the same analysis, the difference is the mess from this week is corrective pattern so far, which favors one more higher high. TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the same patterns, at the moment we have only flat or a triangle for wave 4 which favors the bullish outcome. For the bearish case we need a strong reversal next week so that we have an impulse lower.
Intermediate term - no change. The next high will be intermediate term top.
Long term - the bull market is not over, but small divergences MACD/RSI are visible so correction is expected.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same story... only "Percent of Stocks above MA50" is trying to move into overbought territory, but most of the indicators with double divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero with long term divergence - lower tops since late 2016..
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, but with double divergence since March.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - below 70 with double divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - trying to move into overbought territory, with divergences since the beginning of 2017.
Fear Indicator VIX - I think we will see a spike higher soon.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range, but turned lower.
HURST CYCLES
Day 21 of the 40 day cycle.
Week 11 of the last 20 week cycle, waiting for the top of the 18 month cycle.
GDXJ cycles - the next important low should be in Q4 2017. It is in the last 4th 24 week cycle of the 22 month cycle so the longer cycles 48/96 week are pointing lower. It is not a surprise that we have very weak start - 1/4 of it 6 weeks are behind us and I do not see much strength. The most bullish case I can see is a test of MA50. It will be very surprising to see something more bullish so late in the cycle with such weak price action. Most likely we have an A-B-C from the top and we will see important low for C in Q4.
Thanks for the update Krasi. How does this GDXJ scenario match with USDJPY? It seems to me that RIGHT NOW we are starting final leg higher to around 120 and final GDX 5th wave lower of that bigger C-wave on your chart which should finish below December low.
ReplyDeleteThat would suggest GDX low in summer.
USDJPY needs a few more weeks lower to enter the time window for an important low, then higher to 120. Yes, it looks like it has begun, but I do not think we will see major low in the summer for GDX.... more likely to see one more low for the USD.
DeleteI think GDX is now in wave b from an a-b-c higher so in the summer I think there will be one more leg higher for c. Then the final leg C lower should begin.
Ok thanks. Do you think 103,8 was not USD Index top then ? Just trying to connect the dots ;]
DeleteMeanwhile... USDJPY breaking out...
My feeling tells me we have a major top for the USD already. At the moment only time(cycles) support the idea - long overdue 16 year cycle top and move lower(DXY) for 6 months. We need one more lower low(DXY) or higher high(EURUSD) to see something like an impulse to confirm trend change.
DeleteOn the other side USD is heading for 3 year cycle low so we should see at least a few months higher, USDJPY shows the same idea.
One more lower low and a few months higher for the USD fits perfect with PM.
Now waiting to see what happens in the next several weeks.
Hi Krasi,
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think about nasdaq? Do you expect impulse down? Am I correct in reading the chart with 3 of C to begin soon?
Thanks,
Kali
I think the correction for the NASDAQ has already begun. 3 of C is the final part of the correction... it is way too early for that and this does not happen when the index is above MA50(the final plunge). It is more likely to see a bounce higher from MA50 for B or 2.
DeleteWhat made you change your GDXJ projection from a bottom in summer to now the fourth quarter? Cycles or chart technicals?
ReplyDeleteI have changed the cycle model several months ago.
Delete