Jul 30, 2017

Weekly preview

Short term view - one more leg lower which should show us if we have a top or not.
Intermediate term view - close to intermediate term top... or already behind us.

We saw one more high as expected and now we have nice finished patterns and reversal candles on some indexes. If the top for the move from the April low is behind us we need to see the price below 2450. But this is the third wave in a bull market so one more high is still possible:)
Intermediate term - if history repeats(VIX behavior) after the current move we should see a correction bigger than 5% lasting a few weeks and another 2-3 weeks bottoming. The two targets which I watch are 2330-2350 and 2280-2300(daily chart).


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
The 10min chart looks like impulse lower and correction so I expect one more leg lower.

Then if the move reverses at support/MA200 we have only a-b-c for wave 4(green) and we will see one more high. For something bearish we need a break below this support zone around 2450.
The bullish case - many are counting the beginning of this move at the green arrow. In this case we need one more higher high(green) for wave 5. What bothers me is if you look at the supposed wave 1(green) consists of only three waves and the following wave 2(green) looks like impulse with five waves. I think we have two zig-zags from the top w-x-y(red) for wave 4 red arrow. On top of this we have too many divergences on all time frames. This makes me very nervous:) Personally for me the risk is too high, I would start exiting long positions and average down... see the outcome Feb.2007 - sell off 1 week(3/4 of the loses in one day) and 2 weeks bottoming. Do you think you are so fast?


Intermediate term - nothing new, the two counts iv of 3(green) in the 2350 area and 4(red) in the 2300 area. At the moment the end of wave 3 and wave 4(red) makes more sense when I go trough the indexes.


Long term - no change. We should see at least one more higher high for the bull market. RSI looks bad - it is more likely to see a correction before another significant move higher.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower. We have enough divergences and bearish signs to say correction has begun, but we need confirmation next week.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero with short term and intermediate term divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - flat with divergences.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - sell signal with divergence, but still above 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - another failed attempt to move above 75 and turned lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - turned up after extreme complacency for 3 months. Waiting to see if we have follow trough or not.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower.


HURST CYCLES
Day 16 of the 40 day cycle.


Week 15 if this the second 18 month cycle.


Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Now we have finished setup and countdown on the daily chart.

13 comments:

  1. Beautiful work Krasi.

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  2. pretty worthless blog to be honest. Krasi has been predicting a correction for the past six months now and we're still making new highs...

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  3. What do u do for a living? I mean, besides being a douchebag....

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  4. And the douchebag comment was meant for the anonymous troll, not Krasi. I just wanted to clarify.....though I am sure everyone on this blog knew who I was referring to.

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  5. well, i'm just stating a fact. Just go over Krasi's posts since the beginning of the year and you will see that's he's been predicting a correction which hasn't happened. Not my fault.

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  6. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  7. Mr. Douchebag, in all seriousness, how old are you? My guess is you are under 32. Were you actively investing prior to 2007? Prior to 2000? If you don't mind disclosing your age, maybe I can give you some perspective on why your comments are not only disrespectful to Krasi, but also wrong. If you have been investing through multiple cycles, you would know that buy and hold (which I think you are) doesn't work in a secular bear market. Also, if you have invested through other high liquidity periods, you would also know that sometimes you can be "wrong" for periods of time. Typically, these periods "stretch the rubberband" and eventually result in vicious corrections: 1987, asian, russian, ltcm, .com, housing. I've invested thru them all - professionally and at top mutual and hedge fund managers - and for the most part I have been able to make money and have seen lots of folks go out of biz. So just wait, maybe a trader misses 5%, but I assure you the correction will be worth it. Krasi gives us technical evidence, analysis through multiple trading disciplines and then his best bet on what is happening. Sometimes I disagree, but in this business there are many different ways to make money and no one is 100% right all the time. This is aweightof the evidence gams. Krasi also aggregates an ENORMOUS amount of technical data for his readers. A lot of people charge a shit ton of money for what Krasi prints for free. For that reason alone, you should be more respectful towards Krasi and not such a little prick. If you don't like Krasi's trading style then go somewhere else cuz you're annoying us. If you want to learn something, be a gentleman and ask questions - respectfully. If you don't want to be a gentleman, then shut your pie hole and just wait cuz the market is very good at humbling douchebags like you. I am sure Krasi and the rest of us would be happy to help you learn and make money, but only if you are a courteous member of this blog.

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  8. Krasi,
    Make your blog paid for small fee and you will be rid of these people who waste all of our times.

    I made a ton of money on biotech!!

    Thanks krasi,

    Kali

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  9. Thanks Krasi for update...all indicators are showing a Top here. we will see soon. and ignore those Childish comments.some people never growup.

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  10. Thanks guys!
    Such comments do not bother me at all.
    The guy is not a douchebag, he is just insecure and searches for a reason that everything is fine. Emotionally immature trader who looks for confirmation to feel better. Why do you think some one will visit "worthless blog" every week and needs to explain how "worthless" it is every week:)

    A professional trader will try to discuss a setup to improve his profits.
    A professional trader does not care about being wrong he will move on to search the next setup.
    A professional trader seeing a silly analysis will move to the next blog/forum to find better setups and not wasting his time with useless discussion who was wrong/right 2 months ago.

    Some day he will understand what I am talking about..... or maybe not:) I have all this behind me. I know I can not be always right and I have accepted this fact. And I try not to waste my time with useless stuff.... My expectation that the correction from the March top has one more leg in May/June was wrong - end of story.

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  11. How about XBI? short term it seems a bottom? GDXJ reaches top in short terms? Thanks.

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    1. XBI one more lower low, but at M50 support so yes looks close to short term bottom.
      GDXJ is a mess, yes it looks like short term top , but after that higher again.

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  12. I second everything in the comment starting 'Mr. Douchebag'

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