Jul 9, 2017
Update
Quick update because I am busy and there is nothing new anyway.
We have a sideway move for five weeks. The same pattern - it is more likely to be a wave 4. I hope it is wave 4 and we will see one more higher high, then we will have clean pattern instead of looking for some ugly count. The price tested one more time the Fibo levels / support levels / MA50 / the lower trend line and bounced higher. Now waiting to see what we have - continuation or just weak bounce from support. At least it is clear from the chart when something is wrong and move lower has begun.
The same daily chart updated again.
And RUT for example - one more zig-zag higher to finish an ED will look much better instead of looking for... I do not know for what, some expanded flat.
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Thanks for the update. I have to say that your long term one from 2 January turned out to be one of the best things I have ever read in the topic of financial markets and it helped me make a lot of money.
ReplyDeleteNow that USDJPY began its final push higher, stocks are finishing wave III of 5 and everybody hates precious metals, I wish you huge profits during the heart of metals wave 3 which is literally days away.
Great to hear it:)
DeleteYes, I am watching miners very closely.... if the cycle model continue to work we have a few more months to finish this corrective move and a rally for around 18 months... until stocks find a bottom sometime in 2019.
After turn we have most propably witnessed yesterday in miners I am not so optimistic anymore :( I thought we would go even lower because USDJPY is not high enough for a serious turn (would have preferred it above 119). Now I actually believe we might backtest on TIP and gold and fail at 1260...
DeleteIt does not look so bad at the moment, USDJPY not strong enough to the upside it looks more like a-b-c.... but if cycles are right a rally in summer should fail and we should see one more lower low.
DeleteSo which scenario is more likely? Gold miner moves higher in the next few days to test GOLD 1260 or corrective move and continue move lower. What confused me is whether the summer rally has finished or still in motion? Thanks.
DeleteGold silver GDX GDXJ with different patterns. That is why I commented in the previous post that I can not see a setup with high probability.
DeleteI think the "summer rally" is not over. There should be more to the upside something like a few weeks not a few days.... and if the cycle model works this "rally" should fail.
Thank you. To me GDX looks like some triangle with potential to break out downwards. And GDXJ looks like head and shoulder...But hard to say how it goes since several patterns are possible. And GOLD could be double top or anther wave up and down to get triple top? silver looks like more bearish, anyway
DeleteI know it doesnt look bad now I was talking about longer term;]
DeleteI'm actually watching TIP very closely as proxy for gold. Trend line going though march, may and half june lows is the perfect place to backtest form below and fail. If we break that then gold is out of here.
Bottom line is if USDJPY topped for now then the high for stocks wave 3 should be in. If we are to get summer correction and then final wave up then Yen should further weaken and it matches well with your autumn miners low scenario.
great, so again it might go up or it might go down. amazing analysis, where do I sign up ?
ReplyDeleteFirst read and think, then comment!
DeleteI repeat it for weeks that this should be wave 4 with one more higher high. Clear defined support zone when this is wrong.
Learn to think like a trader weighting probabilities then comment.
I will translate it for you - it will move higher green, but if it breaks below the support zone I am wrong and it is the red.
That is the way I analyze and trade. If you look for some one to think and make decisions for you, this is the wrong place.
Thanks Krasi for update,if breakup above 2425 Green scenario is highly probable
ReplyDeleteYes, I think we should see a move higher. By the way the down sloping trend line was hit and we saw a reaction lower, but I think the break out should be higher.
DeleteTech stocks and European markets with high probability corrective move lower so they hint move higher too.
How about gold? It looks like some backtest, finished or not? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteGold should move higher for a few weeks
ReplyDeleteSo, all the markets are at new highs today. Since you've been expecting a correction for many months now, we can safely say you were dead wrong. No offense but I really fail to see the value in your analysis.
ReplyDeleteThat is probably because you are illeterate... this latest post clearly said expecting a new high, the most likely outcome
ReplyDeleteof course, there's always a path up and a path down, so Krasi will always be right....
ReplyDeleteI hate to say, but it's very stupid to judge whether something s useful or who's right who's wrong like young kids debate who is the best superman:) Earn your OWN money by whatever way you want. Publish your ideas in advance if you like. That's it. Thank you very much for Krasi's great analysis.
DeleteI, on the other hand would like to thank Krasi as the more probable move up scenario played up well and I made some profit shorting uvxy with put options (1:5 rr), I also use other means to weight more probable outcome. I think Krasi could be right we are getting closer to bigger correction, look at the rsi/mcad divergences on spx daily and weekly, also mcad on VIX daily has crossed neutral line (see historical data to see what it might mean), very tight VIX BB, VVIX (volatility of VIX) is making higher highs, I'm waiting for bearish candle XIV
DeleteRegards,
Mily
Are you kidding me?? Krasi even had the decency to respond the following to your dumb comment on July 11th when SPX was in the low 2420s (so just guessing you don't comprehend risk/reward very well?)
DeleteKrasi
Jul 11, 2017, 4:39:00 PM
First read and think, then comment!
I repeat it for weeks that this should be wave 4 with one more higher high. Clear defined support zone when this is wrong.
Learn to think like a trader weighting probabilities then comment.
I will translate it for you - it will move higher green, but if it breaks below the support zone I am wrong and it is the red.
That is the way I analyze and trade. If you look for some one to think and make decisions for you, this is the wrong place.
wait no, it was at 2415 at that time...I'll be that's where you shorted it.
DeleteI will explain it one more time and for the last time:
Delete"There is two directions drawn on the chart, you will be always right and look smart how stupid is that" - this is sooo amateurish interpretation of the chart:)
I do not need to show how smart I am. I do not need to show perfect track record. I do not need bullshitting the readers because I do not sell subscriptions.
The most paid services are not better. The difference is some of them will send you buy/sell signals and make the thinking for you.
I do not this, I am just presenting the probabilities the way I see them and traders/readers should decide for themselves to act or not.
Here is my interpretation of the chart - this is a short term move/trade and because it is a short term the risk is higher the market has two direction.
I want to now - how high is the risk(loses), how high is the risk to be wrong(the odds), when I am wrong(pattern level etc), and if I am wrong what is going on(the new pattern).
This way I can have a decent trading plan and decide to trade or not. All this risk assessment is the second red scenario on the chart.
This is the way I think and it will not change like it or not.
I explained this in a comment and in second comment in response to H2535 I have said up in the moment when SP500 dropped 10-15 points.
On the hourly chart often there is second scenario, on the daily and weekly not so often and when I show second scenario usually it is about the degree of the move size etc
and seldom about the direction.
What is the alternative - it will go higher.... ooo it is moving lower, OMG should I run... what is going, I do not know eventually it will go higher.
This is an amateur approach - now the amateur is a long term investor holding losing position:) I have seen this so many times... and I have done it thousand times:) I do not want to do it any more.
Intermediate term - I called a top in March which was right, I was expecting another low in April/Mai for the 18 month cycle low... all we saw were higher lows.
I was wrong, move on to the next setup/trade - this is trading look in the future you can not change the past. I was not even short I have covered my shorts in April.
Since then I was expecting higher high with alternate if it breaks below a certain level.
You have to get rid of this concepts right wrong. No one knows the future all you have is setup with probability. If the probability risk/reward justify a trade do it. If it does not play out move to the next setup.
Do not worry if you are persistent enough you will learn to think as a trader weighting probabilities and not in terms like right and wrong.
P.S. So I was wrong in Mai, but right in Feb.2016 when most of the traders were shitting their pants. Where were you then to explain me how wrong I am? One of the many reasons for a free blog is - no need to justify to customers.... and now I have to justify my analysis on a free blog?!?!? It is not allowed to be wrong once?!?!? I was wrong that's it move on. When you do not like my analysis do not read them so simple.
If you have a problem with loosing position it is better to ask for an idea/opinion and second you have to take responsibility and not blaming some one else
If think you are so smart and made a better analysis/trade than me.... congratulation, but come back to Earth - you are an amateur. Where do I know - your behavior. I have seen this
so many times, I have done this so many times. I understand you, I have been trough this too - believe me it is waste of time. Invest your time and energy in something more productive and do not waste yours and my time..... Which is more productive spending a few hours working on the next long term update looking for the next opportunity or discussing who was right or wrong? This is the past, it is over, it is done, it does not matter any more.
If you will feel better - here it is I WAS WRONG:)
HI Krasi,
ReplyDeleteLooks like Nasdaq completed its retracement today. 3 distinct waves up with exact QQQ target of recent highs (which you predicted!). Excellent trading opportunity as we would know quickly whether we are wrong or not in terms of our short position... Do you believe we should resume our decline? Now, what do you think as the target for the downside?
Thanks again,
Kali
It looks better as an impulse see SOX too. I think there should be more to the upside.
DeleteIf I look at technology sector and Europe continuation of the rally in August will look better.
Hi Krasi,
DeleteInteresting you say that. Would it not look better if we pullback along with SPY then make the push higher to all time high? That would make for a flat correction or expanded flat for the nasdaq. At which point, we would resume the move down along with spy for leg C?
I see your point of abc move behind us, but I am trying to figure this in the picture with other indices. Also don't you think we should retrace to at least 23.8% of fib lebel?
Thanks again for your valuable insight.
- Kali
Yes, a flat is another possibility I have prepared charts Nasdaq/Sox to show this.
DeleteA bigger correction is coming wave 4 from Feb.2016 - either running already with a flat for the Nasdaq or making one more high with SP500 which is in the final waves from 3 now.