Intermediate term view - several weeks for the current move up to be finished and correction to around 2420.
The indexes squeezed a few points higher as expected, but it is lasting whole week.... they are moving soooooo slowly. The same story waiting for a pullback and one more high. TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the pattern looks like ED, MACD/RSI with divergences... waiting to see reversal for the expected pullback.
Intermediate term - waiting another 2-3 weeks before the current move up is finished. The high should be either the top of iii of 3 or 3 from the Feb.2016 low.
Long term - no change, waiting for the top of the current leg higher then one more correction and a rally before the end of the bull market. Momentum is still pointing up.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same like last week - positive, pointing higher, only the McClellan Oscillator is sending warning message... probably because of the expected pullback.
McClellan Oscillator - with multiple divergences and around zero. I think we will see oversold level around 60 with the pullback and bigger intermediate term divergences with the intermediate term top for the indexes.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal and erased some divergences.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal, in overbought territory.
Bullish Percentage - still buy signal, but turning lower with double divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - no change around overbought level, but showing weakness.
Fear Indicator VIX - extreme complacency and extreme tight BB again, pop-up is around the corner.
Advance-Decline Issues - cumulative A/D still making higher highs.
HURST CYCLES
Day 39 of the 40 day cycle. The expected pullback should be 40 day cycle low.
Week 8 of the 20 week cycle.
Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Combo at 13 and countdown at 10. Probably the finished combo marks a top then a pullback and the final high with finished countdown. On the weekly chart we have sell setup at 7 the odds are very good to see finished setup.
Thanks for the update. Is the market breadth indicator typically lead or lag other technical indicators you use. Also, you mentioned you typically trade 10-12 times per year in your previous posting, can you share what is your ideal setup. Thanks once again.
ReplyDeleteAll indicators are lagging, market breadth can show you extremes and top/bottom importance compared to TA indicators. With enough experience watching charts and indicators behavior for years you will learn when you have important signal and when to ignore it.
DeleteI wait for intermediate term trades 20 week cycle tops/bottoms. I check for clear EW pattern and if the indicators and market breadth confirm it. Such trades have much higher probability compared to short term trades and you can invest more.
What does TA stand for again?
ReplyDeleteTechnical analysis.
DeleteKrasi, what's your view on crude oil? Looks like oil is consolidating before another leg up. thx.
ReplyDeleteIf you talk about the long term picture yes. This corrective move which I was expecting is obviously a sideway pattern, probably triangle. I expect one more leg lower to around 44 before the next leg up.
DeleteWhat is your expeced high for the weekly to reach 13, January 14th?
ReplyDeleteWhat do you mean with 13? Is it 3? If so I am not 100% sure. If you see the daily chart I have to labels. One option is in the next few weeks the other option is January.
DeleteThere he goes again with pull back. There goes the market higher!! Hahaha
ReplyDeletedo you expect xbi higher high or It hes peaked and begin going down for pullback? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteThe pullback is already running for XBI(begun on 6th of October). I do not see reversal pattern it looks so far like a correction so I expect another high after that.
DeleteSo do you think the pullback of xbi will be together with SPX? In this sense, XBI is still going down in next few days... Thanks.
DeleteI can not say. It is difficult to say when this bull flags are over. The pullback for XBI looks mature maybe it will bottom before SP500 and test the low when the major indexes are making a short term low.
DeleteThanks. It seems this bull flag is broken? Today we got pullback, another day to finish? or what's the target? MA 2530?
DeleteYou guys need some serious help!
ReplyDeleteHaha
Hi, IMHO SPX500 is looking quite similar to April-June 2007. Krasi would you agree XIV is getting closer to top (running final 5th wave),and vxx sellers will likely get run by the steam roller.
ReplyDeleteKeep it up, i have lots from this site
Mily
* i have learnt lots from this website
DeleteEven in the most bullish scenario SP500 is nearing the top of (iii) of iii of 3, which means series of up and down moves for a year and volatility will pick up.
DeleteThe market will continue to make higher highs, but VIX will start making higher lows. We will see series of divergencies like at previous tops. Because XIV follows VIX and not the indexes it will get killed much earlier.
See the XIV simulation before inception - https://sixfigureinvesting.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/XIV-hist-Mar2016.jpg
VIX makes a low in the 9 area, the market continues higher for another 9 months with divergences and XIV dies with the VIX bottom much earlier.
Yes, there is no historical comparison - in 1993/92 and 2006/07 VIX stayed so low for 1-2 months now for almost 6 months. I admit I did not expected VIX to stay so low for so long, but at the end we will see the same outcome.
P.S. we are nearing an important top - just look at the comments I get abused because I expect a pullback and the index moved 2 points higher:)))))
We will never ever see a pullback not to mention correction:)))
Hahaha. I am long as long as u say pullback. Hahaha
DeleteGreat to hear this:) I always want to see the dumb money chasing the last 5 points thinking "I am soooo smart"
DeleteI am so smart. I make money and you watch. I not looking and waiting when money pouring out. Grab it. Why not? No doom gloom. Things r great!
DeleteDid I ever said sell or do not go long???? Since when a pullback 20-40 points is doom and gloom forecast???
DeleteWho says that when a pullback/correction in a bull market is expected you should sell and run for the hills????
I know that things are great, the bull market has another year to go. I have never mentioned that it is over.
Can you imagine that there is traders who trade short term moves and want to see short term charts with pullbacks?
Can you imagine that there is "gamblers" trading XIV/UVXY and want to know when to expect volatility spikes?
Can you imagine that there is option traders which want to know roughly the timing for a lows/highs to adjust the strategies?
This are real examples real traders which I am in contact. Different traders, different time frames, different strategies.
You have chosen to buy and hold it is a bull market fine, watch the weekly chart and enjoy the ride.
Ask your self when everything is great and you make money why are you so insecure and look for confirmation that everything is fine because "Krasi is wrong"?
I know the answer I have been there:)
Haha.
DeleteAnother rant. You know I right. You know in heart I make money and u watch. I right. Hahaha
Dow to 30,000.
DeleteHaha. I say so. Dow 30,000!!!
Who are you arguing with???? Do you have personality disorder????
DeleteDid I ever said the indexes will reverse and crash????
I have no problem with Dow 30k. Do you read what I write "the bull market has another year to go".
Seriously doubt you are a trader let alone making money.
Good luck.
Who u argue? I not argue. I say I right. I just say Dow 30,000. U get angry. I not angry. I just say so people think Dow 30,000. Stop pullback. No pullback. Not scary thinking. Haha
DeleteAaaaaaa now I get it:)
DeleteI am not angry just clueless what you are talking about... all the time I am so bearish and wrong when I am showing bullish charts.
Now I understand it - you are not just an amateur it is much worse, you are an amateur who fall in love for the first time with his trade.... oooooo it is so cute:)
Dow 30k and not even pullbacks, no negative thinking, holding hands and singing kumbaya,..... it is really cute:)
How dare I to disturb this beautiful love story with talks about pullbacks:))))))
You are perfect example of an amateur who do not know how to control his emotions - read "Trading in the zone".
Copy this and read it at the end of 2019. Then if you want to learn something comeback.
The following will gonna a happen - it does not matter if DOW hits 30k or 50k you will never book profits you are in love. After the reversal late 2018 you will ride it all the way down in 2019. The pain gets so strong it lasts for too long, you can not take it any more and you will sell at the bottom. In the mean time you will abuse me because your so smart trader and you make money and I do not because I dare to say pullback.
I buy every dip. U see. I get richer and u just watch. Haha. Today buy more. I teach u how u trade. U buy dip. No scared. Just hold on and u make money. Why u so complicate with bs? Just buy dip and u make money. I try help u. I nice guy. Try to help people. Hahaha
DeleteHaha I right. Again Dow up. U say pullback and wrong. I right with more money. U say pullback and I think time to buy more. Hahahaha
DeleteIgnore this scumbag Krasi. Everyone else appreciates your work very much. Just promise me you'll post us a midweek update when you see a complete structure like you have done so well in the past (like you did for Nasdaq a few months ago with sniper precision). Thank you
DeleteHaha. I help. I tell u buy. No thinking pullback. That for suckers. I buy cuz people say pullback. That time to buy. That how u make money. He say pullback pullback pullback. Wrong wrong wrong. Just buy when hear Krasi pullback and make money. Haha. That why I here. I look. Krasi pullback then I know I no worry.
DeleteI do not have problem with such bullshit, you need a bagholder:)
DeleteI always try to warn when the direction changes. I hope it will work again... this third waves are notorious:)
Lol, yes well said, we do need overly confident bag holders for a violent correction... In this case a douchebag holder
DeleteI money bag holder. U douchebag holder. U just watch me make all money. U just watch and say it will drop. It drops 100 and go up 1000. U think u right? My money say I right. Ha ha. I laugh to bank. U hold hands watching me make money. Haha. U sour grapes. U upset u missed boat.
DeleteHi Krasi,
ReplyDeleteSo I recently subscribed to EWI, and they seem to think the current move in the Nasdaq will be over after a pullback and up to finish the ED and complete the wave count to 5.
I just wanted to bring your attention to this. I just wanted to see how to juxtapose this with your thoughts.
Thanks,
Kali
I was thinking for ED for the Nasdaq too. Yes, you can count it as wave 5, but it does not fit at all with SP500, market breadth and cycles. So I seriously doubt it is wave 5 from the Feb.2016 low more likely the top of wave 3.
DeleteReally appreciate you taking the time to teach and answer my questions.
DeleteKali
The moral problem of trading
ReplyDeleteHTTP://TRADINGONLINE-A-MORAL-PROBLEM.BLOGSPOT.IT/
The current move looks very similar to end of Feb 2017, DOW/SPX have been going up vertically overnight, the rising triangle Krasi has drawn may end up with overthrow witch may be a sign of buying exhaustion. Also, pretty much all Krasi's breadth indicators are starting to roll over, bullish candle with confirmation in VIX weekly (with 4-MACD divergences, getting really close to neutral line). I also think we are getting closer to important top. Based on Krasi's analysis the bottom of the correction should be around end of year/1st week of January, no santa rally this year? :)
ReplyDeleteThis down move is not showing exactly the timing. A pullback for a week until the end of October then up in November. End of November/December 18 month cycle high.
DeleteIt will be too stretch the move up until Christmas, but not impossible or we can see the first wave lower and retracement with the Christmas rally.
Trading is such an inner struggle.
DeleteKali
Krasi,
DeleteWould love to see your viewpoint on QQQ this weekend.
Thanks again.
Pay no attention to the guy above. I have never heard a trader with any experience who is so boastful.
- kali
I see this for QQQ https://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_98596372.png?1508554948
Delete