Oct 21, 2017

Weekly preview

Short term view - higher for a day or two to finish wave 3 from the August low.
Intermediate term view - heading higher for the top of wave 3 from the Feb.2016 low.

The ED broke lower, but only for a day which means it was a move from a minor degree and my short term pattern was wrong. The big picture has not changed much - the indexes are heading higher for the top of waves 3 from the Aug.2007 and Feb.2016 lows.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - a lot of room for speculation... on the chart is the count which I was following so far with the internal waves adjusted. Alternate we could see two more highs not only one( the green label). When we see the next low we will know more. For more bullish count it should stay above 2540-2545(the green circle) for the current count it should drop deeper to around 2525.
According to the theory the maximum extension for wave 3 is 4,236 and this is around 2588.


Intermediate term - I was asked about timing the next important lows are 40 week cycle low in the next 6-10 weeks and 18 month cycle low in Q2 May/June(if wee see average cycle length). Adjusted the chart for time... sudden deep sell off does fit much, retracing time looks more likely. In 1993/1994 and 2006/2007 when the VIX stayed below 10 for while the outcome was short living plunge 7%-8%. So finishing the wave higher and similar correction to support/MA200 for 40 week cycle low looks better, after that the indexes should burn time - either this is the top of iii of 3 and they burn time with waves iv/v of 3 and 4, or wave 4 will be time consuming some complex double zig-zag or triangle.


Long term - no change, waiting for the top of the current leg higher then one more correction and a rally before the end of the bull market.
For those who think that the indexes will continue higher should look at the weekly chart and RSI. It is more likely the indexes to hit the trend line and correct than to continue higher.... so far since 2009 we have not seen exception.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - look "surprisingly" weak given the new ATH which we see.... some are trying to turn lower, but it is too early to talk about confirmed sell signal. We are seeing peek complacency I think from now on VIX will make only higher lows.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal, but just crossed the signal line.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - just turned lower, but close to overbought levels too early gain.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - a few points above the 75 level.
Fear Indicator VIX - short term divergences with very very tight BB.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Day 44... I do not know if this intraday low should be counted as a cycle low or not. RUT for example makes very nice wave 4 and cycle low at day 44. I think it is more likely to see a longer cycle and we have not seen the low yet for the current 40 day cycle.


Week 9 of the 20 week cycle.


Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
We have now finished combo and countdown on the daily chart and week 8 of a sell setup on the weekly chart.

28 comments:

  1. Hi Krasi,

    Thank you for taking time answering my "timing next important low question". For those who trade VIX futures related products (ETNs like VXX, UVXY), take a look how relentless front month VIX future selling has been (XIV,VXX/UVXY/TVIX ETNs are long/short 1st and 2nd month VIX futures to mirror S&P500VIXFuturesIndex), and why it has been very profitable trade for a quite some time. But when it blows up, it will be epic (last VIX 50% spike was triggered by only 1.5% selloff as everyone had to cover, if I remember it correctly, XIV ETN shuts down when daily change is 80%).
    https://s.tradingview.com/dailyfx/widgetembed/?symbol=CME_MINI_DL%3AES1!&interval=D&hidesidetoolbar=0&symboledit=1&saveimage=1&toolbarbg=f4f7f9&studies=%5B%5D&hideideas=1&theme=White&timezone=exchange&studies_overrides=%7B%7D&overrides=%7B%7D&enabled_features=%5B%5D&disabled_features=%5B%5D&locale=en&utm_source=www.dailyfx.com&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=chart&utm_term=CME_MINI_DL%3AES1!

    Regards,
    Mily
    PS. Krasi are you based in London?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ups, wrong chart, this is correct one:
      https://s.tradingview.com/dailyfx/widgetembed/?symbol=CBOE%3AVI1!&interval=D&hidesidetoolbar=0&symboledit=1&saveimage=1&toolbarbg=f4f7f9&studies=%5B%5D&hideideas=1&theme=White&timezone=exchange&studies_overrides=%7B%7D&overrides=%7B%7D&enabled_features=%5B%5D&disabled_features=%5B%5D&locale=en&utm_source=www.dailyfx.com&utm_medium=widget&utm_campaign=chart&utm_term=CBOE%3AVI1!

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    2. Yes, everybody is on one side of the boat with the volatility trade and it will not take much to reverse. I think we are seeing max complacency and the peak of this trade at the moment.

      P.S. I am in Vienna.

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  2. hi krasi, has gold miners made the cycle low for the year? i recalled u said something about making a lower low than 2016 yearly cycle low.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, I think there is more to the downside.
      I still think we will see a low the end of the year, but as you mention it is not below the 2016 low.
      I can not see finished pattern and probably the low will be just intermediate term low and not a major low.

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  3. Hahaha. No learn lesson? Still thinking pullback? How playing pullback working? I moneybag holder. Hahaha

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  4. Hi Krasi,

    I want to ask you about XBI. But more specifically what to do once you have exited a short position on a reversal candle and it goes lower on an unbelievably low RSI. Currently XBI daily hit 1.5. I have never seen such over sold condition. Now my disciplin says I should reenter only if rsi bounces above 20. Do not chase. But my gut says it’s showing you how strong it’s selling off. Get in!

    Your thoughts?

    Kali

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I see RSI 41 on the daily chart and corrective move lower to MA50......
      Overall I do not buy overbought RSI/sell oversold RSI... not interested in such extremes. The time for an entry is after it pullbacks below overbought/oversold level with the price making corrective pattern.

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    2. Thanks so much

      Kali

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  5. Thanks Krasi... sounds like market is on Tipping point today... if CBs do not support it again, will drop

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    Replies
    1. The charts do not support stick save again:)

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    2. It looks like ABC pull back as per short term scenario, no?
      Regards,
      Mily

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    3. So far is a-b-c one more low is needed to look like an impulse.

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  6. Is this it? End of short term IV?

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    Replies
    1. If the price moves above 2564 yes. If we see one more lower low the pattern will be an impulse and more to the downside is expected.

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    2. Krasi,

      Do you see further downside to xbi?

      Kali

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    3. Yes, it takes too long and it starts looking like 1-2-3 from an impulse.... if see retracement to the 84,5-85 area and one more lower low this will be the confirmation.

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    4. So once you get the confirmation, would you now know this would be wave 1 of the big drop?

      Thanks,

      Kali

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    5. Impulse means more to the downside, but that is all. The move up is too choppy to say I am sure we have finished pattern and major top. With the major indexes making the top of wave 3 corrective three higher for XBI will be a nice sell setup.

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    6. "corrective three higher for XBI"? Do you mean corrective wave would be three wave higher or it's typo for corrective wave higher? Thanks. I agree with you. The question is how high it would retrace? to EMA50 or MA20?

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    7. Yes, I mean corrective wave would be three waves higher. It is early, but I would say MA200 will look better (I suppose you mean hourly chart).

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  7. Hahaha. Dow go down little and so excited! Down 100 and excited. It go up 2000 and go down 100 so exciting! Hahaha

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  8. Do you think QQQ is last small wave 5? What's the peak expectation? Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It looks like the fifth wave from the August low. The Fibo targets for a top are 151,37/151,86 the next higher targets look unlikely between 154,5 and 155,5.

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  9. Replies
    1. Higher high with divergences will look much better... Fibo targets for IWM 151,85 / 154

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    ReplyDelete