Jan 24, 2018

Update

The chart below is for the next 2-3 weeks and for the next 2 days one final high today or tomorrow will look good to finish an impulse from the last low. As I wrote this 4 yellow is questionable at the moment we have to see the decline first to be sure. Watch for RSI and price breaking below the trend lines for short term reversal.


Currently I see the pattern as shown on the chart. It depends on where you start to count green or red. There is enough small waves to count finished pattern. I think it is more likely to see in the next 2 weeks one correction and one move higher than plunge and crash.... just I do not know higher high or lower low. If you want to be a prudent trader it does not matter you have to wait for confirmation anyway.

13 comments:

  1. Market start to show weekness from a few days ago and specially today...sounds like we are on CIT point

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    1. I see more and more indexes with finished patterns.... I can not imagine that they can stretch more to the upside. Even the green scenarios looks less likely.

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  2. Hi Krasi,

    Am i correct to see the move for xbi to be over? I see 5 distinct waves up.

    Thanks,

    Kali

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    1. One more v/5/III is possible, but that is all. I do not see how to extend it higher the count.

      P.S. I hope you were patient:) as I wrote last time something was missing and it exploded for the final top.

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    2. Why of course i was short. How else could you explain the explosion up :)

      But i have good money management skills to limit my loss. I am here to fight another day.

      Kali

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  3. This market is way beyond abnorlam to me...it is controlled.. it is willing to Crash but something hold it all the time... Big boys dont like it to crash, and just blow in this big bubble.

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    1. It looks like a distribution to me - up and sell then leave it to regenerate do not kill it.
      The crash comes at later stages when the big boys sold most of their positions

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  4. The crash comes when everyone is in and there is nobody left to buy. The market is trying to lure everyone in right now. Forcing those who aren't in to capitulate and buy making it seem risk free with virtually no drawdown...longest stretch without a 5% drawdown on record!

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    1. Agree.. today GDP was missing, in the past it was a big RED if GDP missing..today, market even goes highr :)))))))) LOOOOL

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    2. Seriously. This has gotten completely out of hand!!! Nasdaq up 90+ is normal now every time there is a dip. It’s becoming so exaggerated!!!

      Kali

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  5. S&P closed at the top of a trend channel I am following. Look forward to seeing Monday's close. If it's more than a couple pts I capitulate. I see short term divergences but only bullishness on daily charts. Has anyone analyzed the tech bubble charts for a revelant comp? This feels like it could go violently more vertical

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    1. This is exhaustion for me like March 2000 200 points. I will be surprised if we do not see all the gains from January wiped out in February.

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  6. The force of greed and FOMO can be more powerful thanthe fear of losing money.... here is an interesting section from Krasi's 2010 Tops/bottoms library that I think is a worthwhile read/reminder: http://practicaltechnicalanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/01/tops-and-bottoms.html

    My opinion on Jan'18 acceleration: short sellers have left the party

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