Jan 20, 2018

Weekly preview

Short term view - not very clear, I do not think we saw the top.
Intermediate term view - topping in January and lower in February.

I do not see a clear short term pattern. I can not say if we saw small wave 4 and wave 5 is running or not. I think one more high will look better.
Anyway we have RSI showing a lot of strength and you do not try to short the blow off move, you try to short higher high with divergences or confirmation impulse lower and lower high.

Short term - I do not see a top. The pattern will look better with wave 4 and higher high with divergences on the daily chart. If you look at the futures you will see clear zig-zag higher so I do not know if we have a flat for wave 4 or some ED is running.

Intermediate term - this chart shows the same path like the two charts from the previous post, but a deeper correction. We have a vertical move and what comes up vertical comes the same way down. So I will not be surprised to see sudden sell off similar to Feb.2007. This will purge the greed from the market, we will see 6%-8% standard correction, the "missing" wave IV with 0,236 Fibo retracement(after extended third wave more common than 38%), we will have mean reversion to the trend line and MA200.
To sum up such price action will fit perfectly from technical and "emotional"(fear/greed) perspective.... interesting scenario.

Long term - one more correction and a rally before turning bearish.

Market Breadth Indicators - half of them turned lower close to a sell signal and some like VIX and A/D looking awful. We had a vertical move higher and VIX is two weeks in a row higher.... options traders are expecting the volatility to rise.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - turned lower, waiting for continuation.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turned lower waiting for continuation.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower waiting for a sell signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower, but still above 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher for two weeks despite the blow off. I suspect higher low with the final high.
Advance-Decline Issues - divergence and heading lower, obviously the blow off was caused only by a few shares.

Day 43 of the 40 day cycle. The next short term low should be the low of this daily cycle.

Week 9 of the 20 week cycle. I count shorter cycles, but other Hurst guys are counting 18 month peek now and expected 40 week cycle instead of 20 week low. This should cause deeper retracement and not just 3% like all pullbacks in 2017.


  1. Hi Krasi.. I left a message but disappeared,,please check your email.

  2. H2535

    Hi Krasi..thanks for updates... this Bull looks very strong..the worse news could not affect it so far. What if this count of EW is not a 5 wave ( I am looking at Long term) and it is ABC (Zigzag)? I think it start to match better to that pattern, because this wave that we are going on it now, is taking long. If that is the case, then we are on Wave C ride, and end of that will not look pretty at all. That way top of 2007 Is A , bottom 2009 is B and we are still running for C... what do you think?

    1. From 2000-2002 corrective move lower then some strange correction higher A-B-C for 16 years correcting 2 years, which goes to the moon.... such count does not make sense.

  3. Start of Wave A in what I said was mid of 2002 , not 2000. Infact, I assumed that could start from mid of 2002 ( for Wave A) then the first Top before 2008 would be the A wave, then goes down to earlty 2009 (Wave B) and since then we ae in wave C... that was my assumption I made.

    1. I understand your idea, but a correction higher should correct a move lower.
      And you have lower from 2000-2002 before that you have 20 years higher.
      First 2000-2002 lower is corrective, second the move lasts 2 years and the correction 16 years.
      Neither time nor size fit it does not make sense at all.

    2. I forgot to mention .. I was looking at "COMPQ" not SPX, Really Sorry. for SPX that doe snot make sense, what about COMPQ? if we consider a rising market starting from mid/end of 2002? thanks for your responses anyway.

    3. It is possible, but I do not know how to fit such A-B-C in the rest of the pattern.

  4. Do you think GDX is corrective move higher and going down again for c wave in the next few days from daily/hourly chart? Thanks. Clearly SPX/QQQ daily/hourly chart looks like some last impulsive move? But still bigger corrective wave iv and v missing? What I don't understand is that SPX MACD histogram has so long mMm shape. What do you think about it? What's the reasonable expectation for the current MACD histo finishes its mMm shape?

    1. Wave c for GDX to test MA50/MA200 on the daily chart will look much better than continuing higher.
      Yes, one small wave 4 and 5 on the hourly chart is missing. On the daily chart too, but of a higher degree of course.
      Histogram mMm is not such an important signal... especially against strong trend. In the direction of the trend is ok against it ignore.

  5. As much as I hate triangles , this last few days seems like a wave 4 triangle with perhaps a test of 2835ish to come before your spike high to finish off ....unless there's another 4-5 ,etc ?

    Just mindful that that's consensus and you always look for one more high too many .

    Do you see any clues in the Dax or NQ or are you thinking we get one more high everywhere?


    1. SPX and NDX some sideway move probably triangle and one more high. DAX with impulse lower it should make lower high and continue lower with the C wave from expanded flat, when the US indexes finish their pattern.