Feb 9, 2018
Update
The speed is crazy the pattern develops in a few days instead of a few weeks.
20 points needed to hit EMA200 and C=0,618xA, 40 points needed to hit 38,2% Fibo retracement of wave III and SMA200 (0,5%-1% in the blink of an eye in current conditions:). European indexes(and SOX) are finishing expanded flat which begun in November. Market breadth reached levels where you see a bottom for a correction and the first divergences VIX and McClellan oscillator. Too many red flags on the short side.
I think the more likely scenario is that the correction is finishing. If I am wrong wave B 50% or more retracement... do you really want to ride 200 points against you if you are short?
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Sorry I don't get the meaning "do you really want to ride 200 points against you if you are long?" I agree no matter how to count, currently it looks like finished impulsive down wave. How it goes next depending on how higher and strength for the potential move up? Another worry is that SPX weekly chart: A long red candle closed below MA20, it may likely hit EMA50 2520?? That would be a too deep and quick correction...
ReplyDeleteI mean short... when the rubber is too stretched is snaps back violently we saw it on the long side now we should see it on the short side. 50% FIbo retracement or MA200 hourly/MA50 daily are easily 150-200 points. I do not see a reason to hold short position no matter the count.
DeleteIt is more wise and lucrative to see the next move or even to trade it. There is no point to guess now. Everything still pointing lower and looks scary. I think we will see a lot of up and down in the next few weeks to absorb the selling and this will be the needed time for the indicators and market breadth to stabilize and reverse.
thanks Krasi.. yes.. they are in rush to finish this extended bul market... Today rally is fake too, it wont last long
ReplyDeleteSee. :)))) From +1.5% we are negative now.... such a nice Ripoff :)))) they are stealing money in front of your eyes :))))
DeleteI think bottoming has begun.... up and down, I do not see much to the downside left.
Deleteagree.. may be it is today
DeleteHit 2552 my dream area between 2540 and 2560 from the post above:) Now interesting if we will see a reversal.
DeleteI hope you were not stopped out as the previous low was tested, amazing analysis Krasi. The current move looks similar to Feb 2007 and Brexit, I hope we get relief rally next week, it's been 2 weeks non-stop selling. I hope everyone has great weekend!
DeleteRegards,
Mily
I have closed today the rest of the shorts and opened long positions.... and I do not use stops so I am good:)
DeleteCFD? :) I hope everyone now sells their hedges and use it to BFTD.
DeleteHave a nice weekend,
Mily
Yes CFD DAX and SOXL both because I think I know the right pattern:)
DeleteDear Krasi,what do you think about Natural Gas? It's time for go long? Thanks
ReplyDeleteNatural gas makes crazy moves I do not touch it. The pattern which I see at the moment is the final wave lower for the correction from the top in Dec.2007, but I would wait for confirmation that the trend has changed and not try to catch the bottom. Probably 2.40 wait for divergences
DeleteI'm thinking 2540 in the last hour before a reversal into the close .....Midday low is lower than the opening low , so decent odds the last hour low will be the lowest of the day .
ReplyDeleteJust hope we get a rally first as a 2540 print now opens up another big drop into the close
Definitely only a few will hold over the weekend.
Deletebravissimo krasi, complimenti hai preso il fondo, grazie
ReplyDeleteWhat a week! Thx krasi!
ReplyDeleteSo, i guess nothing much changed and yesterday’s chart is still your best prognosis for next week? Or not? Medium term has the market been damaged with all this?
Have a great weekend!
Yes, yesterday it has played out exactly as expected.
DeleteI do not see damages the market follows the rules of technical analysis.