Intermediate term view - the pattern is not clear, I think wave 4 is not over and B wave is running.
Choppy pullback this week as expected... which does not help us much, the pattern is still unclear. Most of the indexes with a-b-c, RUT and NDX with impulse..... more confusion. Short term the same store is the pullback over or not. The perfect fake out will be to see sharp move lower for 2-3 days to finish b of B then reversal again for c of B , but shorter in time and price and reversal again for wave C triangle/zig-zag/flat. I doubt 2 weeks will correct a rally for more than a year, it will be strange that is why the primary scenario is the indexes are still in wave 4. TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - I see only a-b-c(red) higher. The pattern and the indicators do not look like a reversal so more likely b of B. Is it finished or not I do not know. Looking at RUT and for more confusion it will be nice to see another leg lower.
Here is how RUT(IWM chart) looks like. I see an impulse with perfect Fibo measurements. This pullback looks too short time and price....
Intermediate term - as I wrote 2 weeks look too short to correct 15 months. It is more likely that this is wave B. Possible patterns flat, zig-zag or triangle.
Long term - one more rally before the bull market is over.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - most of them look bullish and it is more likely that wave B is not finished.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - turned up, buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal, in the oversold area.
Bullish Percentage - buy signal, in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - buy signal, in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - cooling off, fear fades out:)
Advance-Decline Issues - close to overbought level.
HURST CYCLES
Day 9 of the 40 day cycle.
Week 12+2 the low for wave 4 should be the low for this 20 week cycle.
Hi Krasi! Thank you for sharing your analysis. I am just wondering, if this correction is a correction to a lower degree wave 3, the one from Nov 2016 then it may be shallower and shorter in time. So it’s possible that we are in wave iv of 3 and not 4 of V. Wave 4 may be coming up later much bigger. That’s why this may be a quick rebound to finish 3 of V. What do you think?
ReplyDeleteKris
It is not lower degree wave. You RSI trend lines you will know when a wave is from the same degree or not.
DeleteHi Krasi, You give me support/direction. I follow you every week. I have only 6 indicators that will give the time and direction but not the price. I found them in 15 years. The last week LOW was on wednesday and the HIGH on Friday. That was correct. This week we have the HIGH on Monday, the LOW and an nice rebounce on thursday. I just have started a free "website" http://prognoseus500.simplesite.com/ to share it with every body. So use the date in your forecast. Kind regards Willem
ReplyDeleteI have added the page under "Links" - turn dates... If we see b of B this will confirm your forecast for this week.
DeleteMy short term analysis are not perfect so I hope your system works:) I will watch it for a few weeks and if it works I will post the turn dates in the short term section of the weekly analysis.
Willem, in addition to follow Krasi, I also looked at your website which is also giving me much insight. Is there any possibility that I can PM you for futher discussion?
DeleteKrasi,
ReplyDeleteI have been using moving average breaks and entries as trend following technique. Any suggestion on how to not lose so much when the trend breaks?
Using only MAs - no. They are lagging trend following indicator.
DeleteThe only way is to be active trader and use the fact that price moves away from MA and than comes back to kiss it.
For example in January price was way to far from the MAs which is not healthy so time to cash some profits and enter again when MA200 was tested.
Or even more active holding core position and trade lower to MA200 and higher to MA50.
The problem is all this is the opposite of a trader using MA for trading.
How is demark looking? No flip?
ReplyDeleteTo me still trending towards sell.
Thank you in advance
No change since last week. For corrective moves is demark not suitable... the market is not trending so you can not measure the strength of the trend.
DeleteIt is more likely to see buy price flip on the weekly chart followed by reversal lower.
Whipsaws in a corrective phase...
So what's the status for GDX and Gold? It looks so mixed no matter short term and intermediate term...Thanks.
ReplyDeleteMost likely one more low for the USD and one more high for Gold then multi month move in the opposite direction.
DeleteHow about qqq and soxx, are these done with impulse up today?
ReplyDeleteI can not say either finished or iii of 5.
DeleteHi Krasi,
ReplyDeleteCould you please comment on WTI? My count is a-b-c correction almost done up to between 0.618-0.786 fibo and then lower to either 58, or deeper to around 54-56 to retest support, possible rsi divergence forming on daily and weekly. May I also ask why you rejected Kris' suggestion, not sure I follow how you link RSI trend lines and wave degree.
Best Regards,
Mily
Careful with commodities they are much more difficult to count. I think there is more to the upside first cycles say it is a little bit earlier and EW only 5 waves up so I would wait to see 7 waves for double zig-zag you do not want to be caught short in the middle of wave 3.
DeleteRSI trend lines work almost perfect showing when the current move is still running and when we have a new wave. RSI weekly testing the trend line from 2016 and RSI daily braking the trend line and moving to oversold level 28... I do not see a way to call this internal wave 4 of III.
If it is 4 of III it should test the trend line for the RSI lows Nov.2016-Aug.2018
Hi Krasi,
DeleteThank you for your response. However, how would you account for the V correction in October 2014? The weekly RSI went even lower than now and violated the trend, the daily RSI went as low as now and it was a lower degree wave 4.
Kris
Hi Kris,
Deleteno it was not lower degree wave 4. For me the move lasts from Oct.2011 to Mai2015 and this is wave 4 for this move. So no difference the same price/RSI behavior.
This RSI trend line approach watching for reversal has two scenarios - test of the trend line and lower high and second one break of the trend line and test with lower high. Now we should see the fist scenario RSI very strong above 90, in 2014 RSI was weak that is why the sharp sell off caused break of the trend line the second scenario.
Thank Krasi, I get it now.:)
DeleteKris
Morning krasi! Here is for a new high, but do you think we have seen the high for that wave, or another 4-5 with false break down around 2730 and another high to the 2800s more likely? What are your thoughts?
ReplyDeleteMany thx!!
As wrote in the last two weeks the pattern is not clear. If it is an impulse we should see a top and correction below 2700. If it is a corrective wave lower to 2730 and higher again above 2800.
DeleteThx krasi, much appreciated! Jury’s still out then! Do you have a level that would indicate that wave 4/the correction is over?
ReplyDeleteNo, just watching the pattern.
DeleteSo now what's the next move? It seems Impulsive B wave is finished?
ReplyDeleteMove lower for a few days. Either wave B is finished and the decline resumes or this is a of B.
DeleteHi Krasi,
ReplyDeletehow would you now count HUI? It obviously fell more than anticipated comparing to your December 16 update. Is the whole Y wave yet in front of us?
Btw. USD looks like expanded flat targeting 90.60 - 91.00 in my opinion. Then we would have last big move down. It fits your June - July forecast for EURUSD high.
Yes, USD looks good it follows the plan with wave 5. When I wrote the long term update there were only three waves it was not clear if it will continue lower or bigger 4 will develop. It took the short cut and plunged for wave 5 so the bottom should come earlier.
DeleteMiners very weak at the end they are stocks and when we see fear the are sold like stocks(see 2008) Probably this y is still running.... with this mess I do not see a count with high probability.
Do you have any target for c of B krasi? Can it reclaim the all time high? Thx
ReplyDeleteI do not have any targets at the moment because I do not know what pattern is running.
DeleteYes, it can make a new high for expanded flat.
Hi Krasi
ReplyDeleteIt looks like Nasdaq is prepping for a flat and Dow with S&P for a zigzag. Would you agree?
Thanks
Kris
For a flat you need 3-3-5. NDX/DJI/SPX all have the same waves just NDX is close to the previous high and have clear 5 waves higher.
DeleteIf the indexes turn lower now the theory says we have expanded flat for wave B.
But for expanded flat wave B would have to go past previous high, right? Nasdaq has not reached that level and spy and Dow retraced about 75% of wave A.
DeleteKris
Wave B itself is expanded flat - 06.02 was the low of A and beginning of B.
DeleteDoesn’t soxx look like finished pattern up?
ReplyDeleteFinished impulse, but part of what pattern is the impulse. If you mean finished from 2016 - possible one of many options.
DeleteShort term it seems another high to test 2800? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteFirst to finish this b of B then 2800... and this is the bullish scenario.
DeleteThere was a guy here long UVXY, not sure you got the memo but proshares announced yesterday UVXY is now 1.5x leveraged, not 2x, they got scared of XIV blow up which could happen to UVXY as I mentioned two weeks back (i.e. on unlucky day after front month VIX future expiries 2m contract becomes 1m, and new front month contract is clobbered > 45% on a single day). Also they changed how they track underlying, so UVXY no longer consists etirely of 1m/2m, but in addition uses index swap, (similar to FAZ).
ReplyDeleteRegards,
Mily
Interesting info... after the fact they are scared:)
DeleteHI Krasi;
ReplyDeleteYou are right on UST10 to consolidate/retrace below 3% first, before breaking that level.
As such from cross assets point of view, agree with you that chances are high DXY will need to make another low first before posting a multi-month rebound. Question here, do you think DXY is completing 3 of C (for the flat correction since 3rd week of Jan), or it is in the final stretch of the C wave?
Many thanks in advance!!!
If this is C from expanded flat this should be the low for the pattern.
Deleteit seems like you are probably right Krasi!! Thanks
DeleteHi Krasi! Whay level to do see on the spx and ndx now that 2730 has been broken? Thx and good luck!
ReplyDeleteThe pattern is still not clear. I think we will a-b-c for "b of B". In this case a low around 2700 and test of MA200 hourly then one more leg lower.
DeleteIf 2700 does not hold most likely B is over and the indexes just plunge lower to finish the correction from the January top.
Any potential target or path for the down move? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteNot really... I expect a low for b of B, but I do not have an exact path.
DeleteHi Krasi.. do you think zigzag for Dow and s&p is more likely now?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Kris
If you mean that wave C lower has begun - no. I still think we will see something more complicated.
DeleteIt might retest the lows today or Monday and form a W formation..another possibility, I think.
DeleteI think we have a bottom today and a bounce higher. When we see the move up we will know what kind of bottom.
DeleteSo DXY has reached top and goes down while GOLD/miners should rebound up? It seems SPX reaches short term bottom? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteYes, DXY should make one more low and Gold/miners move higher in the mean time.
DeleteSPX short term bottom. When we see the bounce higher we will no more.
Corrective test of MA50 - more to the downside. Impulse higher b of B is finished and more to the upside.