Mar 9, 2018
Update
This is how the futures look like(CFD SP500 4h chart).... from the lows in February I do not know how to twist the pattern as bullish... diagonal?
We have the move up this week but this move from the March low does not look bullish either. It looks like corrective a-b-c and MACD retracing to the trend line. I think the indexes will turn lower and the two options are wave C of IV to finish the correction or higher low around 2600 for another a-b-c - wave 2 of V?
The indexes show a lot of differences. If you try to synchronize the pattern for all indexes the choices I see are - wave C/IV zig-zag for all indexes(NDX flat which is zig-zag too) or the correction is over and this is wave 2 of V and NDX is the strongest index and the others are just weaker. Yes, for some indexes impulse higher is questionable, but it will not be the first time to see such "ugly" impulse.
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I have the same feeling that SPX is not strong enough, but this morning SPX reaches above 2750 with impulsive blow. Still the same pattern? DXY is still hanging higher and GOLD/gold miners still waiting for bottom? Do you think GOLD and GOLD miners would move higher if SPX begins C wave Down? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteThe futures are showing only a-b-c, the impulse you see is c. For an impulse SPX should continue higher next week 2820 at least. The indexes diverge too much and we have different pattern that is why the post above.
DeleteThe opposite if SPX plunge lower it will drag gold miners lower too. They do not look really bullish anyway and the more important correlation is with USD.
Hi Krasi
ReplyDeleteI understand then that you don’t believe in any impulse and today or Monday we should see a reversal...is this a correct assumption?
Thank you
Kris
From the low we have two legs with the same size so far which is a-b-c, for an impulse it should continue much higher... but here is the catch I have seen many times "fake" a-b-c (1 and i of 3 have similar length) suddenly mutate to impulses. The scenario is usually short correction for ii of 3 and move above the last high.
DeleteYes, I do not believe it will happen, but if I see the scenario above I will change my mind.
I do not believe it not because I am bearish, but because looking at the strong indexes like NDX/RUT/XBI/SOX it is more likely to see a cool down around the top for ii of 3 than sudden vertical burst higher.
Now VIX down to 15.3, from the past, it will continue down several days to reach bottom. In this sense, SPX could reach even higher... what do you think? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteThan it is wave i of 3 of V
DeleteThank you for the update. It's really confusing moment... So do you think VIX should reach bottom at? It seems 15 is already very low..
DeleteI do not know how to forecast VIX.
DeleteJust a bit confused with this market. I thought we move to retest highs on xbi, so i have been long. But i see now that nasdaq composite has broken out. Soxx has broken out. I don’t see why i would not be bullish right now? It’s all looking like we will push much higher especially with the breakout traders entering this market. Am i mistaken?
ReplyDeleteKali
XBI looks too much like a-b-c. It could be bullish, but than it is 1-2 i and ii to follow.
DeleteI agree with you regarding xbi. It does look like abc. Plus if you look at all the other corrections, notice this bizarre 1-2 wave is simply too big without the adequate retracement. But i look at soxx and it’s an impulse. I look at qqq and Nasdaq and it’s an impulse. I guess my confusion is whether a rapid collapse to follow or rapid rise. I am using options to limit risk and catch the rise but i wonder if i should push more to the long side.
DeleteKali