Mar 31, 2018

Weekly preview

Short term view - tricky I would say one more low will look better, maybe some indexes with lower low some with higher low next week.
Intermediate term view - intermediate term low expected and higher in April/May.

Up and down as expected, but very volatile moves and tricky picture if we have a bottom or not. Different indexes show different pattern despite all of them moving in the same direction.
Short term - Nasdaq made a lower low for expected wave 5, SP500 did not - truncated fifth? We can only guess. Some indexes including SP500 will look better with one more lower low some with a bottom already.
Intermediate term - looks different for different indexes. For some the pattern looks like wave IV for some like 2 of V and for some the top is behind us.

We can discuss for days about counts/patterns/labels or do what a trader should do - the analysis says the next bigger move is up so look for long entry. Simple after that we will put the labels.

Short term - so far nothing to confirm reversal and I will stay with the plan - one more lower low.
Finished pattern fifth truncation(green) in sync with NDX ... it is rare event and betting on this outcome is betting on event with lower probability and as a trader you should do the opposite. For confirmation the indexes should continue higher to finish impulse and then correct with three waves.

Intermediate term - either the top is behind us and we have multimonth corrective pattern like the top 2000(red) or alternate wave IV(green). The price is testing MA200 may be fake break lower and reversal, RSI and the histogram building divergences.

Long term - the index is testing the low and MA50, a rally should follow.... the last one for the move from Feb.2016. The histogram with very deep trough like the biggest corrections since 2009 - in 2011 and 2015 so this should be intermediate term low. On the other side notice it is just the left side of the trough(the green arrows) and it needs time for momentum to slow down and reverse. In 2011/2015 we saw one more test of the low. This time should not be different and I think the price will not just reverse and blast off higher.

Market Breadth Indicators - are pointing lower of course, but building divergences and start looking bullish.
McClellan Oscillator - higher low and close to zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal with higher low so far .
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - double bottom?
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - second oversold bottom slightly higher and turned up.
Fear Indicator VIX - heading lower after lower high.
Advance-Decline Issues - higher low close to oversold level.

Day 32+1 waiting next week for a lower low or not to see where to pin the low for the 40 day cycle.

Week 18+1 the same story like above. I think this is intermediate term low and 40 week cycle low.

Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Finished buy setup as expected and price flip. The price bottoming, up and down moves and the histogram doing exactly what it should do:) momentum is slowing down and trying to reverse. On the weekly chart we should see the same what I have explained on the daily chart.


  1. Happy Easter from Rome and thanks for your analysis

  2. Happy holiday! So how about Gold/miners? It seems still not bearish and begins another wave up? Thanks.

    1. I do not see anything bullish. Two weeks lower and seven weeks to retrace 50%. This is not strength for me.

  3. Hi Krasi, what’s your downside target for GDXJ?



    1. The pattern is a mess so it is difficult to give a target, when I do not know exactly what is going on. At the moment best guess is up to 34 and lower to 28 or 26 then up again.