Weekly preview

Last week I have explained why this reversal feels wrong and so far it failed. I see a zig-zag lower and impulse higher the price is doing the opposite if you expect a reversal.
Reversal and bearish trend should produce bearish weekly candle, that is why I wrote last week watch closely how the week develops. Usually you will see a pause for day or two (ii of 1 of C in current case) and lower for the rest of the week with bearish weekly candle. What we have is lower for three days with intraday reversal for bullish weekly candle.

The price and the indicators behave like pullback for daily cycle low. If I am right it will last another 2-3 weeks before the move up is over.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - nothing to suggest reversal zig-zag lower and impulse higher. Now we should see pullback to test the gap and MA200.

Intermediate term - MA50 was tested. The odds are higher that we will see one more higher high before a bigger decline. I see two options for this decline either 2 of ED or alternate C.

Long term - no change the indexes are nearing an intermediate term top and decline until October should follow for 18 month cycle low. I do not think we have major top... and the bottom for wave 4 is still not 100% clear. Now I prefer that the low was in April for wave 4.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - nothing new weak with divergences, but the McClellan Oscillator for example is spending a lot of time below zero without the price following which is usually a sign for a bottom.
McClellan Oscillator - more than a month below zero correcting and now up in positive territory.
McClellan Summation Index - accordingly weak and heading lower.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turned lower.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - between 50 and 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - jumped sharply, I do not think that we will see 9 and staying there, rather series of higher lows.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range holding the trend line with higher lows.


HURST CYCLES
Day 2 of the next 40 day cycle. It feels so far like daily cycle low. Sometimes the move lower is very shallow and you do not know where to put the cycle low this is even worse with the 20 week cycle. Look at closely this chart it shows you the low for the daily cycle low even if the price amplitude is missing. It says loud and clear we have daily cycle low and turn up.

Week 7 for the 20 week cycle.