Aug 18, 2018

Weekly preview

Last week I have explained why this reversal feels wrong and so far it failed. I see a zig-zag lower and impulse higher the price is doing the opposite if you expect a reversal.
Reversal and bearish trend should produce bearish weekly candle, that is why I wrote last week watch closely how the week develops. Usually you will see a pause for day or two (ii of 1 of C in current case) and lower for the rest of the week with bearish weekly candle. What we have is lower for three days with intraday reversal for bullish weekly candle.

The price and the indicators behave like pullback for daily cycle low. If I am right it will last another 2-3 weeks before the move up is over.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - nothing to suggest reversal zig-zag lower and impulse higher. Now we should see pullback to test the gap and MA200.


Intermediate term - MA50 was tested. The odds are higher that we will see one more higher high before a bigger decline. I see two options for this decline either 2 of ED or alternate C.


Long term - no change the indexes are nearing an intermediate term top and decline until October should follow for 18 month cycle low. I do not think we have major top... and the bottom for wave 4 is still not 100% clear. Now I prefer that the low was in April for wave 4.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - nothing new weak with divergences, but the McClellan Oscillator for example is spending a lot of time below zero without the price following which is usually a sign for a bottom.
McClellan Oscillator - more than a month below zero correcting and now up in positive territory.
McClellan Summation Index - accordingly weak and heading lower.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turned lower.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - between 50 and 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - jumped sharply, I do not think that we will see 9 and staying there, rather series of higher lows.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range holding the trend line with higher lows.


HURST CYCLES
Day 2 of the next 40 day cycle. It feels so far like daily cycle low. Sometimes the move lower is very shallow and you do not know where to put the cycle low this is even worse with the 20 week cycle. Look at closely this chart it shows you the low for the daily cycle low even if the price amplitude is missing. It says loud and clear we have daily cycle low and turn up.


Week 7 for the 20 week cycle.

14 comments:

  1. Good.

    Finally i think no wave B, and no wave C.

    The 4 wave as a triangle.

    Impulse up monthly time ago... Going to ATH... Going to 3100-3300 in S&P in wave 5.

    In Europeo i lost... No ideas.

    Lucky and good trading.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If you look at DJ and NYSE you will see that fifth wave does not work. This is corrective crap.... ED is an option.
      This could be B wave, but it takes way too long and if it plays out it is not 4 from the Feb.2016 low it is something bigger.

      Delete
  2. will you give an update on the SPX during the week? thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nothing has changed the gap and MA200 on the hourly chart should be tested.

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  3. Now it looks like reversal? Thanks.

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  4. Krasi, what are your thoughts on USDINR? Please let me know as I am short at 68.90

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It looks like finished impulse and island reversal... correction should follow 66,5-67.

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  5. Thank you so much krasi. In how much time do you see this unfolding? Also, what's the best time frame for currencies?

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    Replies
    1. The time frame depends on the traders style. I prefer intermediate to long term - more reliable pattern less whipsaws.

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  6. Hello Krasi.

    If USA impulse up, is in may in my opinión.

    The posibilities are open to going minimun febrary or not.

    In S&p, crash down 2797 open de door, but i think no posible.
    The last week going to 2808+- and go up.

    In dax, if dax crash up 12450 go to 13000 first target... And final target 14000-14500 in 5 wave.
    The correction is more complex in Europe.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, with the current pace the cycles does not look bearish and for now the next 18 month cycle should make higher high which pushes the top into next year.

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  7. Any thoughts on DOW THEORY non confirmation? Trannies new high , Industrials 800 points to go to confirm...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I do not know much about the theory just one index should confirm the other if not we have a big warning.
      Currently DJI can just follow and make a higher high too. We need move below the February low for non-confirmation between DJT and DJi.

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