Short term - SP500 with impulse lower DJ with zig-zag.... is it wave 4 red or zig-zag b yellow? I can not give an answer with high probability. I can only say one more leg lower for the pullback will feel better.
Intermediate term - two zig-zags for wave B yellow from the weekend and wave B red with two impulses from the update.
Long term - this up leg should be nearing its end. After that we should see a sell off testing the trend line. There is a high probability that this will be the low for wave 4 from the Feb.2016 low and 18 month cycle low.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change bearish despite the 150 points rally double tops and divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - pointing lower with divergence.
SP500 Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - heading higher for another top.
Bullish Percentage - double top.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - two tops below 75, can not move in overbought territory - sign of weakness.
Fear Indicator VIX - complacency again I do not expect to see it at 10.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
HURST CYCLES
Day 24 of the 40 day cycle.
Week 5 of the 20 week cycle.
Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Count down running at 9.
I think in red B wave short term... This week coming C wave medium term, probability shoot moving average 100 weeks for finally september or october.
ReplyDeleteFor dax... Finally, no shoot to 13200-13600 in wave B or X of ABC or ABCXABC médium térm.
I have 3 recount médium term.
The first recount is crash.
Bit i think in ABCDE recount médium term... No triangle.
The actually wave iS C wave to 11500... But the E wave shoot to 11300, moving average of 200 weeks.
Thanks Krasi!!!
what do think about HSI?
ReplyDeleteThe same like EEM. At first glance wave 4 and 5 to follow with new high, but I am starting to think that we have a reversal and wave 3 is running not C/4. Especially if the US indexes correct lower 8%-10% I do not see a rally for the emerging markets.
DeleteKrasi, where do you see the top of the B wave before the 8% to 10% correction? Thank you for your work
ReplyDeleteAt the moment I do not see finished pattern. I would say a few more days... maybe Friday or Monday.
DeleteDo you mean an entry point at around 2780 after a pullback for a final run up or the actual intermediate top before the 8% to 10% decline? Thanks
DeleteNo more pullbacks this should be the final move higher.
DeleteHi Krasi..it looks like your red B version is playing out. The index took out the previous high.
ReplyDeleteKris
It does not really matter the intermediate term pattern is more interesting and to find nice entry.
DeleteHi Krasi... Thanks for update, on long term chart, When do you thing the Top of "V" could be?
ReplyDeleteWith my current guess wave B or alternate 1 of ED it could easily stretch to January/February 2019.
DeleteHi Krasi,
ReplyDeleteWhat about the banks? (XLF,KRE) my count is either: a of ABC up is running or 1 of 5 of V, also can you take a look at LODE & RMX? Thank you for your precious time
Regards,
Mily
Banks XLF - it is tricky you can count w-x-y finished wave 4 and this is i of 5(from the Feb.2016 low) or
Deletea-b-c/A (April low) and 3-3-5 expanded flat for wave B with C to follow like the other indexes if I am right.
LODE & RMX - small mining companies with very low volume. I think TA/EW is... just a guess in this case. You need a lot of trades to measure the collective emotions with EW.
Is the current impulsive finished? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteOne more high will look better, but there is no guarantee any more.
DeleteHi Krasi. For DXY, is it still a an ED? Thanks
ReplyDeleteIt looks like triangle and now the final move higher.
DeleteIn Indexes the moment has arrived.
ReplyDeleteGoing for red in C wave in USA and C wave in Dax logicaly.
But in Dax maybe D and E waves after.
My thinks are with Krasi minimuns con finally septembre or first days of october.
Krasi... You are a great analyst.
But in long terms my thinks are others.
More more more bull times.
Thanks from Spain.
I am bearish for 2019 to see 4 year cycle low. After that is the market bullish again for 2 years
Delete