Aug 4, 2018

Weekly preview

We have a pullback as expected.... there is a lot of discussions if it is finished or not. I am showing two variations of the B wave and now we are watching closely which one plays out.
Focus on the big picture - no matter which one plays out the next big move is lower namely 8%-10%.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - SP500 with impulse lower DJ with zig-zag.... is it wave 4 red or zig-zag b yellow? I can not give an answer with high probability. I can only say one more leg lower for the pullback will feel better.


Intermediate term - two zig-zags for wave B yellow from the weekend and wave B red with two impulses from the update.


Long term - this up leg should be nearing its end. After that we should see a sell off testing the trend line. There is a high probability that this will be the low for wave 4 from the Feb.2016 low and 18 month cycle low.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - no change bearish despite the 150 points rally double tops and divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - pointing lower with divergence.
SP500 Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - heading higher for another top.
Bullish Percentage - double top.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - two tops below 75, can not move in overbought territory - sign of weakness.
Fear Indicator VIX - complacency again I do not expect to see it at 10.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Day 24 of the 40 day cycle.


Week 5 of the 20 week cycle.


Tom Demark SEQUENTIAL AND COUNTDOWN - this technique spots areas of exhaustion.
Count down running at 9.

19 comments:

  1. I think in red B wave short term... This week coming C wave medium term, probability shoot moving average 100 weeks for finally september or october.

    For dax... Finally, no shoot to 13200-13600 in wave B or X of ABC or ABCXABC médium térm.

    I have 3 recount médium term.

    The first recount is crash.
    Bit i think in ABCDE recount médium term... No triangle.

    The actually wave iS C wave to 11500... But the E wave shoot to 11300, moving average of 200 weeks.

    Thanks Krasi!!!

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  2. what do think about HSI?

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    1. The same like EEM. At first glance wave 4 and 5 to follow with new high, but I am starting to think that we have a reversal and wave 3 is running not C/4. Especially if the US indexes correct lower 8%-10% I do not see a rally for the emerging markets.

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  3. Krasi, where do you see the top of the B wave before the 8% to 10% correction? Thank you for your work

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    1. At the moment I do not see finished pattern. I would say a few more days... maybe Friday or Monday.

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    2. Do you mean an entry point at around 2780 after a pullback for a final run up or the actual intermediate top before the 8% to 10% decline? Thanks

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    3. No more pullbacks this should be the final move higher.

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  4. Hi Krasi..it looks like your red B version is playing out. The index took out the previous high.
    Kris

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    1. It does not really matter the intermediate term pattern is more interesting and to find nice entry.

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  5. Hi Krasi... Thanks for update, on long term chart, When do you thing the Top of "V" could be?

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    1. With my current guess wave B or alternate 1 of ED it could easily stretch to January/February 2019.

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  6. Hi Krasi,

    What about the banks? (XLF,KRE) my count is either: a of ABC up is running or 1 of 5 of V, also can you take a look at LODE & RMX? Thank you for your precious time

    Regards,

    Mily

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    1. Banks XLF - it is tricky you can count w-x-y finished wave 4 and this is i of 5(from the Feb.2016 low) or
      a-b-c/A (April low) and 3-3-5 expanded flat for wave B with C to follow like the other indexes if I am right.
      LODE & RMX - small mining companies with very low volume. I think TA/EW is... just a guess in this case. You need a lot of trades to measure the collective emotions with EW.

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  7. Is the current impulsive finished? Thanks.

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    Replies
    1. One more high will look better, but there is no guarantee any more.

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  8. Hi Krasi. For DXY, is it still a an ED? Thanks

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    1. It looks like triangle and now the final move higher.

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  9. In Indexes the moment has arrived.

    Going for red in C wave in USA and C wave in Dax logicaly.

    But in Dax maybe D and E waves after.

    My thinks are with Krasi minimuns con finally septembre or first days of october.

    Krasi... You are a great analyst.
    But in long terms my thinks are others.

    More more more bull times.

    Thanks from Spain.

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    Replies
    1. I am bearish for 2019 to see 4 year cycle low. After that is the market bullish again for 2 years

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