Short term - SP500 stronger than DJ moved slightly above the channel, but no decisive break out. EW, Fibo measurements and RSI are saying one more high to finish the impulse will look perfect - the labels in brackets. Green labels for wave 3 the bullish case. Target for wave 4 is usually the low of the previous wave iv where we have support and the trend line.
Intermediate term - I think test of MA50 and the trend line is coming. If it is an impulse expect something more bearish and more to the downside - the analysis so far. If it is a corrective move it could be wave 4(green)
Long term - waiting to see what happens in the next few months.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same for months. I have the feeling market breadth does not react to rallies... I suppose only a few shares are pulling the market.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal with divergence so far.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - pointing up.
Bullish Percentage - another high and turned lower again.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - barely touched the overbought level and turned lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - divergences.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower, still with higher lows and holding the trend line.
HURST CYCLES
Day 12 for the current daily cycle.
Week 9 for the 20 week cycle.
This is the "bullish case" with shorter 20 week cycles.... it is bullish only for the short term.
No like me your impulsive recount of S&P.
ReplyDeleteMy recount is more long.
In this time the wave is sub3 of 3 of V.
In from Spain Mr. Sugar11... My idea is sugar in 7 zone.
I have already explained why this is a wrong count.
Deletel'onda è sub3 di 3 di V e' anche il conteggio di the ELLIOTT WAVE lives on "tony caldaro" https://caldaro.wordpress.com/
DeleteGood luck waiting for Caldaro to warn you about a correction.
DeleteHi Krasi, what’s your thought on Silver and PM stocks? Has it reach intermediate bottom or more downside is expected?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Neel
This low should last for a while a few weeks, but I have the feeling we will see one more lower low with divergences later this year.
DeleteHi Krasi.. any change to the above charts after today’s market action? Was last Friday an intermediate top? I am especially curious about IWM. Thank you
ReplyDeleteKris
IWM looks like reversal candle at the moment. It needs to close around the low for the day for confirmation.
DeleteSP500 just a-b-c so far, more to the downside needed.
Up... USA more more up.
ReplyDeleteYour emotions took control, this is very dangerous.
DeleteNo need to pay him any mind. Thank you for your analysis as always, you do a great job.
DeleteI find Sergio to be very annoying...
ReplyDeleteNormal human emotions everybody wants to be right and look smart. With trading you have to suppress emotions and the ego, which is not easy. I trust my tools and I am not afraid to be wrong.
DeleteThe bulls are emotional again, 3 of 3 of 3 no corrections again, forget analysis just buy the dip mentality again.... reminds me about another top not long ago:)
Back then was another guy DJ 30k without correction just buy the dip.
Hi Krasi.. I find the market movements quite confusing now: Nasdaq seems to have started the correction, Dow has started to rebound and spy and iwm barely budged.. could you help to make sense of it? There is clearly a disconnect there among the indices. Thanks
ReplyDeleteKris
Do not focus only on EW, look at some indicators like RSI or market breadth.
DeleteLooking at NDX/DAX, the indicators and market breadth I would say the correction is already running.
Interesting is we have only three waves higher, which is not a top and the move develops so far like indicators reset and not a reversal.
I will not be surprised if wave ii of ED is running....
Sorry for my ?inapropiate?comments... But i think my comments no are ofensives.
ReplyDeleteOther visión of markets.
S&p... More important no crash 2880.
Low of 2870 serious problems and posible C of Krasi to minimuns of febrary.
But i think no posible for estructure... I think go up.
Dax.
Important support in 11900... I think go up.
Eurusd.
Go first target 1,25 zone... And next, more up.
Thanks from Spain and good trading!!!
I do not have problems.... In a few months we will see who was right.
DeleteUps!!!
ReplyDeleteBrent.
In correctión to 74-75 zone in days... Target médium term 95+-.
Target to eurusd and brent for Christmas or finally of november.
Looks like 2916 was terminal ending triangle of some sort , which is presumably allowed to terminate after 3 waves up .
ReplyDeleteLook forward to the next update - thanks Krasi
It seems like the first leg of the expect 80-100 points correction.
DeleteYes, interesting is that the leg up is only three waves.... I would say w1 of ED and now w2.
Krasi, what do you think about HSI and SHCOMP? as always, appreciate your hard work.
ReplyDeleteBoth huge impulse lower wave 3 finished and wave 4 and 5 to follow in the next few months.
DeleteKrasi... S&p crash my supports (2880 and 2870) of the estructure may ago.
ReplyDeleteI havent more ideas.
See and wait... Danger.
C wave???... Other estructure???... No ideas.
Hi Krasi.. if I understand correctly wave 2 of ED in s&p should have 3 legs. So in this case we should have a small rebound today marking the second leg and then the resumption of the correction to complete the 3rd leg. Is this correct? Thanks
ReplyDeleteKris
Yes, something like this.
DeleteHi Krasi! Thanks for your hard work. Referring to FDAX, is it possible to have a flat corrective pattern with wave B as a triangle? Thanks!!
ReplyDeleteI think no. Flat is 3-3-5. Combination 3(W) plus triangle is complex correction with X as a triangle and another corrective structure should follow for Y.
DeleteThanks you very much!
Delete