Short term - RSI shows series of zig-zag moves... I can not see the impulse. Probably the ED which I am showing for a while with shorter wave ii. If this is the pattern expect lower until FOMC next week and one more high. Alternate this is wave b and decline for wave c will follow.
Intermediate term - MACD,RSI,histogram are saying toping not the beginning of multi month rally. Topping should continue the last week of September and in October at least MA50 will be tested. This move lower should clarify the big picture which pattern is running - impulse with 4 and 5 to be finished or wave C lower for 6-9 months.
Long term - no change waiting to see how the big picture will look like... one more high or not before a bigger decline. Again looking at the RSI and the histogram multi month melt up is a fantasy.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same turned up, but no run higher or overbought levels etc. to show strength.
McClellan Oscillator - around the zero line, most likely one more high with divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned up, another high below overbought level.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned up, another high below overbought level.
Fear Indicator VIX - divergences, I hear again VIX 9 and staying there - clear fantasy. Expect multiple divergences when we hit the top.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned up, around the middle area.
HURST CYCLES
Day 27 of the 40 day cycle.... sometimes the 20 week cycle consists of three shorter daily cycles instead of two 40 day cycles. This one feels like we have three daily cycles - the yellow count.
Week 12 of the 20 week cycle. It is time for a pause not a rally.
Gurus and fantasíes... ?And LSD?.
ReplyDeleteWhen dow (and s&p) touch sma 50 diary if this iv wave of 5.. Actually 25700.
ReplyDeleteBut sma 50 go up day at day.
EW and more.
Sergio, you are wrong. DJ and SP are in a diametric wave. The f wave should start in two weeks at the most. it would be the red c wave of krasi but its final objective is 2600 for november.
ReplyDeleteThis will running flat instead of expanded and the previous cycle count with longer cycles.... rare but not impossible.
DeleteGot your pullback Krasi - Ndx now trying to lead us up .
ReplyDeleteI have a big CIT this Friday , so hopefully a new spx high by then would finish off this huge flat .
Thanks
It looks like SPX one more high in short term is reasonable? How about GOLD/miners?
ReplyDeleteGold miners should make a-b-c higher and this is the first leg up - a.
DeleteSPX I am not sure, we have to wait for FOMC. I have some doubts it will make another high.
Thank you. Do you mean the move up from Sept 11 to now is the first leg up a? And then leg b to test daily MA50 for example? I agree with you about SPX, it looks like not that bullish although no significant sign for bearish reversal...
DeleteYes, this is the first leg for the miners they are testing MA50 already. The low will be tested I think with higher low and then another leg higher.
DeleteExcellent, good sharing.
ReplyDeleteNow can we confirm? I feel still not ready for big down move...
ReplyDeleteWe still could see one more high - see the first chart.
DeleteFor confirmation is move below 2886 needed.
Ndx looks set for a new high by tomorrow , maybe not spx. Still thinking we may see a CIT in the first hr friday , but wait & see what set up we see , if any
ReplyDeleteAt the moment it looks like the ED is playing out.
DeleteMaybe a Friday turn after all - just without the higher opening I wanted .
ReplyDeleteWhat does CIT mean ?
ReplyDeleteI think change in trend....
DeleteNow can we confirm which pattern? Looks like the top has been there? or another high...
ReplyDeleteNothing happened the last two days so I can not say. So far corrective price action.
DeleteHow about Dxy and gold/ gold miners? I recall you mentioned another leg higher, is it finished? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteI think this is the correction before the second leg.
Delete