Oct 6, 2018

Weekly preview

The price action this week is not surprising, say bye bye melt up and SPX at 3200. It was so obvious even for a newbie just looking at the RSI... of course most of the traders for in love and did not want to see it for what it is. Relentless melt up is the third wave this is in the past 2017 now it is 2018.

Apart from that nothing new to add the same analysis wave 3 or B. I can not say for sure which one until I see how the move lower develops. The odds are higher that we saw the top of wave 3 and 4 is running. Why? - because this "plunge" occurs above MA50 and because of market breadth and especially the McClellan indicators. They are in corrective mode since the beginning of September 5-6 weeks already and price is following at the late stages when we should start looking for a bottom. Such price action is typical for a correction. The 20 week cycle is already at week 14 and a low is expected in the next few weeks. The market is narrow only a few shares holding it up and this shares will look better with a correction and one more high example - BA , UNH , AAPL for DJ and AAPL,AMZN,MSFT for the tech stocks.
Reversal and wave B is of course possible, but it has lower probability and I need to see a confirmation first - the price moving fast lower with impulse below 2800 in the next 2-3 weeks when a low is expected.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - DJ hit its target the trend line, SP500 did not... I do not know do we have finished ED or some choppy corrective pattern... it is not important.
At the moment I think we will see a bounce higher above 2900 to test MA50 and another leg lower with the same size to hit the lower trend line. For something more bearish(wave B running) the price has to move decisively below the trend line and support.


Intermediate term - all indicators look bearish, so I do not think it will just reverse higher... we should see continuation next week to finish at least corrective zig-zag. RSI was signaling very clear what is happening, the trend lines working perfect as usual... if you do not want to listen or do not know how to listen... well it is your problem the market was sending clear message.


Long term - bearish indicators with divergences too, but one more high could not be excluded... just waiting to see what the market will do.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
The Market Breadth Indicators - price is following now.... usually when market breadth is in a sell mode for a while and price follows in later stages this is only a correction. More interesting is the big picture - AD cumulative is reacting very strong lower to a simple pullback. Only Brexit and the January sell off showed such weakness. I think we will see the missing AD divergence which usually signals an important top.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero since the beginning of September and mildly oversold, expect a move higher.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal nearing the zero line.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - sell signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range, move to the oversold level 25 would be nice for a finished correction.
Fear Indicator VIX - not a surprise divergences and higher. I expect to see one more higher low before important top.
Advance-Decline Issues - plunging lower heading for the oversold zone.


HURST CYCLES
Day 37, but as I wrote the last two weeks three shorter cycles and day 19(yellow) will look better. It does not matter, in both cases we should see at least one more week lower for a correction.

Week 14 for the 20 week cycle, it is not a surprise that price turned lower instead of "melting up". It is time for 20 week cycle high(check) and a few weeks lower.

69 comments:

  1. Hi Krasi.. thank you for sharing your ideas. It seems like the market has been holding up very strongly, even this overdue correction comes with a huge opposition from the bulls. I am wondering if your longer term view of the upcoming downturn is too pessimistic.. it seems to me that after this correction we may have a strong and long bullish stretch taking the index well over 3000 level. Possibly even somewhere around 3500-4000. Just wondering. Kris

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    Replies
    1. This will occur later after a 4 year cycle low in 2019 and at least 10% correction.

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  2. Hi Krasi.

    You win +-.

    My thinks are ago 3100-3300... But 3050-3100 so good.

    Ok for your 4 subwave.


    Brent.
    Go to 93-95 from 83-84 and next médium term corrección.

    Eurusd.
    Nothing.

    Gold.
    Down to 1130+-... And next go to 1400+- zone.

    Thanks for your great job.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Sorry.

    I say s&p go to 3050-3100... Not 3100-3300.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SP500 3050 is realistic.
      Interesting is oil is moving in sync with stocks and should make the same pattern pullback and intermediate term high then lower.

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  4. Yes Krasi.

    Brent go 93-95 i think and next go down.

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  5. Hi, Krasi, how about gold and gold miners? The corretive move up is finished and another leg impulsive down? Thanks

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    Replies
    1. Difficult to say this is wave 4, I think the correction is not over.

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  6. Still so weak... what's the expectation for rebound wave B or 2?

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  7. Krasi.

    I think usa indexes run towards ath... Whats your thinks.

    More lateral days In ath-sma50???



    To anónimo:
    I esperated gold go down to 1130+- and next go to 1400 zone to complete interanual lateral.

    Salutations.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Up an down to finish a-b-c will look better.

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  8. Ok krasi, thanks.

    Reality i esperated to short positions when indexes up in usa in few weeks or 2-3 months.

    In gold go long when down 1130+- with target 1400+-.

    And i have longs in brent with target 92-94... In 92-94 go short with first target 70-75 zone... And second target 60 zone.

    Thaks krasi... Great job my friend!!!




    I operate médium térm...

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Me too intermediate term there is less whipsaws and it is more profitable.
      I see it similar one more high for stocks/Oil and big drop, one more low for gold and strong rally.

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  9. chop chop.....hopefully we conclude this b wave later today or first thing tomorrow then have 5 down to set the low. Whilst 2840's might be ideal , is it correct to say that it could go as low as 2803 before changing the preferred count?

    Thanks
    .

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    Replies
    1. Yes, below 2800 but more important with impulse to signal trend reversal.

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  10. Thanks krasi... Twins ideas for gold and brent.

    In usa indexes your idea win... One more ath and go down.
    First target in my opinión mínimun of febrary... And see for more down targets next.
    25%+- correction.

    Im lost with eurusd... Surrended.
    Wait and see.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Something like that.
      EURUSD just watching too.... some correction, according to the cycles the next important high is Q1/Q2 2020 so two options going nowhere for a long time or quick correction now another plunge H1 2019 and reversal.

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  11. Hi Krasi, Any thoughts/targets on RUT here?

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    1. RUT with impulse lower now 4 and 5 later to finish it while the majors are busy with b and c wave.
      So basically the indexes are in sync. Target for 5 around 1580-1600.

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  12. Hi Krasi, your great work is always appreciated. What do you think about $natgas?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not sure about the pattern, but as I wrote in the last long term update it should move higher and this should continue in 2019 too.

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    2. Thank you very much.

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  13. It seems b completed at 2894 , so if C =A we have 2820 as one target.

    Having said that , Europe is at support and looking ready to bounce

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, indicators and market breadth pushed too fast into oversold territory and a-b-c is more likely than reversal. One more low waves 4 and 5 to finish c looks good.

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  14. We should be up into Friday here let's see where my 49.95 price goes

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  15. At the moment DJ shows text book a-b-c correction(see the link below). If this is wave 4 we should see a reversal. Too much oversold indicators it will be strange to see a move which just begins 1-2 i-ii.
    https://imgur.com/a/bbXHsTk

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    Replies
    1. Now I feel this should not be wave 4 or something deeper down? Thanks. It looks like a larger degree down wave.

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  16. On the other side RUT DJT and NDX all with impulses lower... SPX you can count an impulse because it made lower high when DJ made higher high and RSI at 26 is not really wave 4.
    Interesting will we see one more high for DJ and the other indexes with lower highs????

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  17. Howdy All

    Looks like game over, probably gap+limit down overnight, mid term maybe one more higher/lower high, seems like rotation from stocks to bonds has begun. I sold VIX calls too early due power of suggestion it is A-B-C (we will find out tomorrow) even my plan was C to finish IV or I down, luckily still got 10Y UST ZN calls and QQQ puts. I'm sure there will be time to go short when retest of key weekly MAs fails. Good luck 4 all

    Regards,

    Mily

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    Replies
    1. Bit Dramatic comment, I reviewed the charts once more and given everything is oversold, i would expect a bounce:
      a) this is wave C of IV / 1 down if top is in - wave iii is complete (1.618 at the mo) should see steep and fast bounce as ii was shallow
      b) this is C of ABC Krasi was talking about and we should see strong rally after a quick retest of low
      Had a quick look at October 2007 and this one might end up look similar (the top was in and 1 down started lasting few months. Anyway, great job Krasi, I appreciate your hard work,

      Regads,

      Mily

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    2. Too much fear too fast - Gread&Fear at 8 or the market in the same emotional state like February 2016 and 2018. This crashes are getting more and more often... algos/machines trading probably.
      It looks like 1-2-3 lower with missing 4 and 5. One more low to hit the trend line, support and MA200. Usually when we see fear there is a bounce and one more low to test the "fear low" after that weeks/months the traders to forget the pain. Cycles and market breadth pointing to intermediate term low.
      Taking into account everything above we should see a bounce higher and one more lower low in the next 1-2 weeks then most likely corrective move higher until Christmas(your a)). At the moment I do not see how to count another ATH... the options are very rare wave C instead of 1 for running flat or somehow this is corrective and we have expanding ED (your b)).

      Here is visual the standard pattern in this case expanded flat: https://imgur.com/a/8D4Fbat

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  18. Krasi.

    Buah!!!... We have C wave to 2550+-.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Most likely now.... but you did not believe me that market breadth is awful:)

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  19. Hi Krasi,
    Yep, something along these lines, but instead of C I would see it as I down and the top is in. Apparently crashes are mow attributed to CTAs trend followers and risk parity (long stocks, long bonds) and they use vol as input and sell on autopilot when vol rises, Charlie MCMaggot from RBA was talking about last week, listing all the levels when CTA selling will begin and it did:
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-10/equities-unglued-ctas-finally-join-selling-frenzy
    I also occasionally take a look at NorthmanTrader's market recap (all indexes reviewed from classic technical analysis), pretty good stuff if anyone is interested, (this is what Krasi usually just mentions i.e. Russel is doing this Nasdaq is confirming that but this guys lays it out in details):
    https://northmantrader.com/2018/10/07/weekly-market-update/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The problem is we have a zig-zag making higher high in EW terms no way this is a major top.
      I do not focus so much on theory lower expected I am short simple... much lower I am fine with that.
      If it is C or I at the end it is the same for trading.

      Delete
  20. Sorry Krasi.

    Various scenaries are ago possibles.

    But in this moment i think C wave... Logically.

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  21. Looks like a low this morning around the 200d , then a sharp bounce which could well be vertical and over in the blink of an eye , before your re-test .

    Gold trying to break-out - 1240 would be the obvious target if it manages to do so .

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    Replies
    1. Hi, Krasi, do you think gold would breakout to move up? I think it's only wave 4 bounce... Thanks.

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    2. So far it looks like wave 4.

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  22. If we get a little closer to 2780 heading into the close, it should make a good short term bounce on the long side. No?

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    Replies
    1. Bonce is already running, but it is weak... probably some wave 4.
      I would wait no need to hurry

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    2. No it looks like the big bounce has started.

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  23. It looks to me that wave 3 has finished with 4 and 5 to follow.
    With the deep plunge today to finish wave 3 it looks like this is the whole wave C not just wave1 and the pattern running flat...

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    Replies
    1. So just confirm, what your're saying this will be running flat as you drew few comments above
      flat: https://imgur.com/a/8D4Fbat

      Regards,

      Mily

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    2. No, that was normal expanded flat. Now this is the whole decline C for running flat or I am wrong and this is wave 1.
      Something like this https://imgur.com/a/4qCpTbz

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  24. Which would mean S&P has completed wave 4 of ABC lasting from February till now. If that’s the case we should be starting wave 5 of V. Is this correct? Thank you

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    Replies
    1. Hi Krasi.. my note above was a reply to yours from 9:15 pm above.

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    2. Yes, a-b-c flat should be wave 4 and one more high before important top... If I am right of course.

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  25. Hi Krasi,

    Can I ask for your opinion on GBPPLN?

    Thanks in advance

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    Replies
    1. Do the chart does not look positive... probably it will touch 5 or slightly above and lower again.

      Delete
  26. Krasi I’d like to clarify your assumption of running flat rather than expanded flat.. it could be either one in my view. Please explain. Also when you mentioned above that it might be wave 1 I don’t know what you mean.. wave 1 of what? Thanks. Kris

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    Replies
    1. If it is not just a correction we have a major top and reversal and this is wave 1. It is too long to be wave 1 of C for expanded flat. So either running flat will finish with this wave lower or we have reversal and this is the first wave lower.

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    2. Thanks. If it's running flat, do you think yesterday's bottom is the bottom? It looks like still not bullish enough? Thanks. In this sense, we have have one more lower low short term, i.e. next few days? Thanks.

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    3. No, this was the low of wave 3 now bounce higher is running and we should see one more sell off.

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    4. How big will the sell-off be in spx

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    5. Currently I see bounce to 2800 and final move lower to 2660.

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    6. If we see another close under the 200 day sma I think the bounce is over and I'm starting to believe we've seen the ATH for this cycle.

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    7. Also want to point out that this would under 2742 we are looking at a weekly close under the 50 week sma.

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    8. Looks like the bulls live to fight another day. On to 5 of V....

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  27. Thank you Krasi... I am under the assumption that wave 3 of C is finished and we have started with wave 4. Wave 5 that should complete the correction could be shorter for running flat or extended for expanded flat.. I don’t know how one can tell at this moment which one it will be. Kris

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    1. I think wave 5 will be 0,618 of the size from 1 to 3 or 140 points... we need something bigger.
      I will not be surprised to see w4 hitting 2800 38% retracement.

      Delete
  28. But it could also be 100% or 168.1% of wave 3 extension, couldn’t it? It would have a bigger fear effect.. just wondering why you feel it will be only .618 extension. I also have another question.. we are most likely running wave 4 of C now.. how is it subdivided? 3 minute waves or 5? Thank you Krasi, always appreciate. Kris

    ReplyDelete
  29. I think lateral is a abcxabc, abc in febrary, x in ath, actually abc.

    The recount 12345 of c is very long extensions down... No really.

    Actually, b of ultimate abc... Go next week to c to 2565+-.

    c 6-10 sessions down short terms.

    I see your analisys tomorrow, thanks krasi.

    Short terms actives.
    Eurusd go to 1,08.
    Gold go to 1130-1150.
    Brent go to 70-73.
    Dax go to 10400+-???... ???... ???...

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  30. i've been spending so much time trading and staring at my screen this week, this is the first time i've looked at krasi's blog in a while. i pulled up the blog and it says 68 comments....so guess what bitches??? i'm #69 !!!!! haha i couldnt resist. its my birthday today so i'm allowed. anyway, i hope u all survived the week and to krasi - good call on it being a top and thx the for all your hard work. have a great weekend !!

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