Weekly preview

I have added charts below - for those who think we have a major top, correction has just begun, it is very bad third wave etc. I have a news for you the correction is not running for a few weeks it is running for 10 months already. Look at the charts below and look at SP500 no difference a-b-c in a channel but masked with higher high. I do no know how many times I have to explain it.....


I thought this b wave will take a few more days... I was fooled by this candle with huge shadow on Tuesday. No wonder this week we saw really crazy things 5-6 reversal 60-80 points each. At the end the pattern is overlapping crap, diagonal comes to my mind - wave c which should be done and we saw a reversal on Friday.

This move lower has all attributes of important intermediate term low. Since 2009(see cycle chart) this is the 8th sell off 10% or more. They all look the same - 5-6 weeks lower and most of the selling is concentrated in two weeks, on four occasions the low was tested one more time (2011/2015/2016/2018). Currently we have week 5 with 2 weeks selling... we will see a bottom soon(probably already done) statistically there is 50/50 chance the bottom will be tested. Looking at the indicators and market breadth which all point lower the probability is higher that we will see a retest. They need time to flatten and reverse.
Market breadth confirms it - we are seeing levels which are common for important intermediate term lows with serious selling pressure. Cycles - 18 month cycle low is expected. The wave pattern starts looking complete on many indexes not only in the US.
For me the signs are that we are at an intermediate term bottom and multi month move higher. Most likely we will see bottoming process first taking a few weeks, V shape bottom is less likely.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - overlapping mess probably diagonal. The important message - it is not an impulse. You can count a-b-c or 1-2-3-4-5(diagonal) it does not matter it smells like intermediate term low.
There is a slight chance to see one more low if you count the high on Tuesday as wave 4 and than a diagonal which needs one final low. The problem with this count is at the same time you count strength fifth wave extension and in the same time weakness diagonal.

Intermediate term - the lower trend line was touched if you ignore the long shadows, this is ok with trend lines. What happens next? There is two options - one more ATH(green) or B(red) to the resistance zone. We will have enough time to decide which one it is... no need to choose now.

Long term - the same on the weekly chart - ATH(green) for the bullish scenario, H&S for the bearish(red).

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - extreme levels common for important corrections and divergences. Interesting is on Wednesday we saw huge sell off and A/D issues and the McClellan Oscillator barely moved lower.... most likely only a few big names moved the indexes lower.
McClellan Oscillator - after extreme we have triple divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal, very deep dive since 2009 only in 2016 at 4/8 year cycle low we saw such deep move lower.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal, at oversold level, waiting to turn up.
Bullish Percentage - sell signal, only in 2011 and 2015 we saw lower levels.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - another extreme with divergence.
Fear Indicator VIX - lower high and divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - did not move lower after such fear and sell off.... strange my only explanation is a few big names dragged the market lower.


HURST CYCLES
Day 35 for the 40 day cycle, the indexes are close to a bottom or it was hit already.

Week 17 for the 20 week cycle.... it looks like 18 month cycle low to me.

I showed NYSE chart and explained why we have big correction and it is wave B up. Below the updated chart - I am "shocked" what happened. The worst what we can see is the expected test of the low in November to be a lower low, after that it is multi month rally up.

DAX exactly the same the indexes are synchronized at important highs an lows and at the end the pattern is the same.

Market breadth percent of stocks above MA50 - in a bull market it moves in overbought territory stays there for months and correction pushes back briefly to oversold level followed by quick move to overbought, in a bear market it is the opposite. What we have in January - April oversold for a few months push to the upper boundary failed despite the "strong rally" and plunged to oversold again. Classical indicator behavior.
What we have? - a-b-c Do you get it why I was explaining correction no 3200? Do you think I was wrong? I will dear to say I was right, than will some one explain me why this is not just wave C and it is something else?