Jan 4, 2020

Weekly preview

I was expecting wave iv and v of 5/c/B and it looks like this is playing out. Topping has begun - if the top is in we should see small waves iii-iv-v lower next week, but my feeling tells me another week before the pattern is finished.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - to confirm a top we need to see the decline continue next week breaking the trend line and support. The problem is we do not have a bearish candle on the daily chart and usually reversal does not start this way.... may be we are still in w4 or w5 is an ED, we will know next week.


Intermediate term - the indices are close at least to intermediate term high and if I am right we will see much deeper decline than most expect.


Long term - close to the top of wave B, after that expect sell off to begin and to continue into Q2.2020. It will complete the correction which begun in January 2018.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - Fear&Greed hit 97 on very weak market breadth on Thursday - a lot of complacency. Now starting to see the short term divergences, intermediate term high is around the corner.
McClellan Oscillator - lower highs, very weak on Thursday only 4 points higher.
SP500 McClellan Summation Index - buy signal with double divergences.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal, reached the overbought level.
Bullish Percentage - flat, still buy signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower despite the strength from Thursday.
Fear Indicator VIX - more higher lows, preparing to spike higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - pointing lower with multiple divergences.


HURST CYCLES
Daily(trading) cycle - the days of this cycle are numbered, RSI with a sell signal already, but price is still above MA10 so sell signal is not triggered. Next week we should see either a bounce from MA10 and completion of the pattern or break below MA10 and sell signal activated. For now is wait patiently.


Hurst cycles - I am still experimenting with cycles... cycles vary 20 week cycle could be 18w or 20w or 22w - my theory as the cycle develops you can see if the smaller cycles are shorter or longer then adjust them for the current 20 week cycle. This is sine wave 20day cycle highs(or 14 trading days). I think this 20w cycle, which begun in September, should be shorter and the 14d cycles are 12-13 days long. I want to see at least 7 such cycles finished(next week) before the 20 week cycle makes a high and turns lower.


Week 13 reached 2/3 of the cycle, we should see a turn lower soon. The coming high is minimum 40week cycle high and after that we will see a decline until we hit 40 week cycle low and this is 6 months later mid 2020.

79 comments:

  1. Thought it would break the low this morning but support held up!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Still no confirmation for reversal...

      Delete
    2. Yup, heading towards the highs again. Still think the top is in?

      Delete
    3. Above I wrote that I do NOT think the top is in....

      Delete
    4. Ah yes, so you did, was recalling a previous comment from last week of yours where you said you thought it was. Let's see how the week unfolds.

      Delete
  2. Hi Krasi, I've been looking to get back into Apple, but this chart looks ominous. What do you think of it? A move down in Apple like this would correspond to what you're expecting for the markets.

    https://worldcyclesinstitute.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/AAPLJan52020.png

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think Apple will fall hard like the indexes and this pattern is wrong. This ED is... just wrong, timing proportions etc.

      Delete
    2. It's a horrible count, wave 5 moves below wave 4

      Delete
    3. This 4 is lower degree wave(he uses different colors for different degrees of waves)... despite that it does not look right.
      I do not understand why w1 of ED is an impulse?!?!

      Delete
  3. Krasi there is a mistake in your long term count, a of b back off completely to A and that is not possible.
    a of B can never go back completely to A

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I have never heard of such rule.... and what is the count in this case?

      Delete
  4. Hi Krasi, what do you think of TSLA? I used to think only bitcoin could do crazy moves. But we have so many of the tech stocks showing parabolic moves with RSI hitting 85-90. Does this always not end well or they can keep going up especially due to buybacks?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This parabolic moves are terminal moves and they will end as always - retracing most of it.
      TSLA - best case this is w3(from Jun.2019) with 4 and 5 to follow or just a-b-c as the most shares and indices. to be 100& we have to wait to see the next decline.

      Delete
  5. https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/fed_funds_cot_leading_indication/

    Very interesting, 20w cycle this month?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The high-to-high count is this week at 36 for the 40 week cycle so yes this month is intermediate term high expected.
      The big boys are playing against statistical deviation which is not a surprise.

      Delete
  6. After all this warmongering the expected w4 looks like of higher degree.
    DJ futures - https://imgur.com/a/66e3e0K
    The Fibo measurements looks so perfect that it is unbelievable - Fibo targets from three different degree of waves point to the same target around 29050.
    I see ED with overlapping and 0,618 proportions and one final fifth wave will hit c=0,618xa and B=1,38xA


    P.S someone suggested a few times that we have a triangle... it looks more and more like we have a sideway move until early October and I was wrong. This will explain 40 week cycle low in October because the pattern was finished in October.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Never is ED

      Delete
    2. With or without ED two weeks nigher then the October low.

      Delete
  7. When do you expect the 20w cycle low?

    ReplyDelete
  8. No one can fight with the fed that print so much money

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Good luck with that.... pattern rules and the FED can not do anything about that.

      Delete
  9. So maybe about 3300 on SPY to start final topping?

    ReplyDelete
  10. Krasi, about the triangle that you say above, do you mean this link on this website that I uploaded a few weeks ago?
    I'm not the guy who writes on that website, I'm just a reader

    https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.labolsadepsico.com%2Fsp500-nuevos-maximos-historicos%2F

    ReplyDelete
  11. https://translate.google.es/translate?hl=es&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.labolsadepsico.com%2Fsp500-nuevos-maximos-historicos%2F


    it seems that the link does not work, you have to translate from Spanish to English

    https://www.labolsadepsico.com/sp500-nuevos-maximos-historicos/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, I mean the triangle on the chart, which I have posted.

      Delete
  12. And this is Europe - https://imgur.com/a/ubeh1JB
    For those counting third wave.... no comment:)

    ReplyDelete
  13. With the idea of ​​that website and what I told you yesterday that a de b cannot go back completely to A and that you told me what count could it be, I think this count, it is not perfect but it is one more possibility

    https://prnt.sc/qksu9e

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This count is very difficult to "swallow"... I have posted two charts today, do not you think they look much better more "natural" than this mutated triangle?

      Delete
    2. This count explains perfectly the move up since October, it is the escape from the neutral triangle, the projection was 3200-3300 and it has fulfilled.
      Even the possibility of going up to 3400 that would not be possible with B wave.
      It's just an alternative

      Delete
    3. We are not going to 2200 with this in 3. More like 3082. I wouldn't wanna be long after 3340. But, we are not in a 3 so none of this matters. ;) as you were.

      Delete
  14. Don't you think there is bull flag in the dayly chart?

    ReplyDelete
  15. Krasi, are you still short? I have my 1/3 still and waiting.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, I have decided to hold it.... not sure that timing the top will be possible too many wild swings.
      Crude oil is perfect example crazy moves overnight just added another 1/3 there after second gap and sell off and now waiting for impulse lower and corrective up for the last 1/3.

      Delete
  16. Doesn't seem like we will get an intermediate top any time soon so

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Exactly the opposite topping has begun as expected.

      Delete
    2. Kind of been the thinking for the past few months no and we keep being ATHs, that correct?

      Delete
    3. Than buy it, it is so strong and it is making ATHs.

      Delete
    4. Just wondering why it keeps making ATHs for the past 400 points if it is supposed to be topping, trying to learn!

      Delete
    5. 400 points below is the October low - there were many discussions at that time where the 40 week cycle low is and whether to expect c or y wave higher.
      Obviously you did not understand the discussions or this is typical trolling comment:)

      Delete
    6. As I said, just trying to learn, so yes, the former - I did not understand - thanks for explaining.

      Delete
    7. Don't worry, Krasi is just frustrated. Rather than spending the last 4 months saying we are in a topping process it would have been easier to follow the correct count which others have suggested numerous times.

      Delete
    8. Which is this right count? The third wave joke?
      Typical trolling with clear lies..... go back 4 months in October and check what was discussed.

      Delete
    9. Well we are 30 points away from 3300. How far away are you? 400 points while the whole time talking about 2200 is coming. You have changed your count so much over the last year it's crazy.

      So the reader can determine two things from this. Either EW doesn't work or you don't know what your doing. Because what you said probably will happen hasn't. It just keeps getting pushed back while the rules that allowed you to make that assumption keeps getting broken. If it was correct you wouldn't be able to keep changing it. So again, either EW doesn't work (because it's breaking it's own rules) or you have the wrong count. Simple to understand.

      Delete
    10. "JUL 13, 2019
      Weekly preview
      Small down and up moves as expected... time for topping and possible reversal next week. Overall the market is getting more dangerous every day - indicators with divergences on the daily and weekly chart, the daily cycle is nearing a high, market breadth with divergences and now working on short term divergences to signal a high, TomDemark finished countdown on the weekly chart, the pattern starts looking complete, DAX reversal bearish candle formation and divergences on the weekly chart... I do not know how to twist this as bullish."

      Your site is riddled with this for over a year.

      Delete
    11. So what? July was lower - where is the problem?

      Delete
    12. The count has not changed it was always a-b-c/B for the last two years.
      Of course I had problems with b/B, I should have forecast it better, but all this suggestions that I have should predicted it in advance are bullshit. It does not work this way.
      I can predict zig-zag is coming, I can not predict how exactly it will look like. This is not EW failure corrective waves can have many different shapes.

      Delete
  17. 3 december 10w cycle low and 7 january 5w?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, there is two 20day cycle between 3.Dec and 7.Jan

      Delete
    2. So the next 5w in first or second week of february and the 20w cycle low too, a little earlier than what you said above

      Delete
    3. It does not work like this, there is no such symmetry, cycles vary. The first 10 week cycle is only 8 weeks. Where is the problem to see 12 weeks for the second part?
      This week I will show two charts - from the October low 8x20 day cycles slightly shorter and 4x40 day cycles from the August low slightly longer and both point to the same time frame - the first week of March. This is the time frame for the 20 week cycle.

      Delete
    4. But the last 5w cycle will last 8 weeks, too much

      Delete
    5. The cycles vary and are not symmetrical.

      Delete
  18. Estas echo todo un gurú.

    Si viendo NQ sigues pensando que todo va a caer es que eres imbécil.

    Sigue insultando a quien te contradice... Eres incapaz de ver que te has equivocado del todo.

    Última vez que pasó por tu web de mierda... Payaso.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Do not forget to come back in 6 months again to see who is the clown:)

      Delete
  19. He is a guru and he is not an idiot krasi gives his info for free your the dummy

    ReplyDelete
  20. The power amazing, every day AH, with a lot of gaps, the liquidity is high by the fed with cheep money

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The FED can not change the pattern and they will be the reason in the first place for the big decline.

      Delete
  21. Krasi, considering all the shit you get I wonder why you still do this. People, this is a FREE resource and Krasi is free to say whatever he likes... even that the SP500 is headed to -10000.
    Do you feel better by telling him that he's wrong? Even if I don't agree with some of his views I certainly would never offend him on the comment section.
    People.. go get a life!! A girlfriend.. a hobby. Anything that will prevent the hatred on this site.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Agree. Live & learn, move on and take responsibility for your own actions. Understand that the S&P is the most liquid equity related security in the world, with billions of actors at play, and therefore the hardest to predict.

      Delete
    2. Krasi is talking about a huge crash lower, even more than last year's. And so think of the process as similat to how much mass this wave needed to suck in before it couldn't anymore,, reversed and crashed. The market is sucking people in as we speak, not sure how much higher but am convinced the next BIG reversal is the big Kahuna

      Delete
    3. https://youtu.be/jGxE1soC1hI

      Delete
    4. it is exactly the opposite, the more liquidity the better EW works

      Delete
    5. If you know any EW sites that predicted this move could you please share? Thanks

      Delete
    6. Yes, they feel better literally:) Easy money it works like drugs and I am spoiling the party so they need to offend me to feel better - normal human behavior.
      The problem is this will not help when the party is over.

      Delete
    7. Isn't that the point of the stock market? To make easy money???? Am I taking crazy pills? What party have you spoiled? We are at 3279 as I type. The only party spoiled is for the ones who have been short and didn't go long. Jesus. Who cares when the party is over. When the trend changes the party is over. You sell and go short. You leave the party dude. You never even went to the party. How hard is that to understand?

      Delete
    8. John, above you have a link to a website with a neutral triangle count that preceded these levels or more

      Delete
  22. I guess the problem people have with Krasi is that he very dismissive of other people's opinion, like those saying this will go above 3000, being told that they are crazy, idiots etc. Maybe Krasi communicating more empathetically for 2020 could bring less vitriol from those he puts down.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Exactly. One year ago the talk of 3300 mean't unicorns could fly, keep trolling, Iv'e heard this before, follow the herd, your don't know what your doing, blah blah blah. Any talk of other counts are considered bullshit. Numerous people have logically pointed out violations in his count or brought up good objections only to get dismissed. Now we are 25 points away from 3300 and somehow it was all in Krasi's probability???? GTFO. This is why people attack because they are treated like idiot trash. I feel sorry for anyone who has been trading this count. You missed out. Too bad open criticism is not welcomed. Good luck with 2200. It was last year, then Q1 of 2020, then Q2 of 2020, now the middle of 2020. Eventually the end of 2020. All the while analyst with honesty have already admitted their count was wrong and have started to accept Wave 3. Like Avi in his yellow count. But hey, they are just pulling in more people for the stock market crash. LOL. I have heard that nonsense for decades and look where we are today. Oh well. Good luck to those looking down. You've done it this long, no point in trying to change. BTW, I have no ill will to Krasi. He has conviction so that's nice I guess.

      Delete
    2. Avi will switch back to the other counts when the market drops.

      EWT analysts just keep adding extensions. And then change their count when the market changes directions.

      Delete
    3. So they are only right after the fact.

      Delete
  23. There is a very nice canal Frome 2009, the top is almost 4000
    All the times are positive,
    The fed print money, till march
    There is no reason for short
    I like krasi work but he is knew for me

    ReplyDelete
  24. Is sex dirty? Only when it’s being done right. Hey, i am looking for an online sexual partner ;) Click on my boobs if you are interested (. )( .)

    ReplyDelete