Jan 25, 2020

Weekly preview

Instead of recovery in the afternoon session on Friday the price stayed at the lows. The week finished with bearish daily and weekly candles and sell signal was triggered. Confirmation is needed with one more lower low for impulse followed by corrective retracement.
Did you noticed how the market behavior has changed? While the trolls were cheering the new ATH every rip was sold the whole week - the smart money is exiting the market.


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - obviously the small down up shown last week played and the price broke two trend lines, the third one connects the October and December lows and should be first support. For a reversal to be confirmed we need one more lower low to complete impulse followed by corrective retracement. Short entry is when you see such confirmation with a stop above the last high.
Another option is to count truncated fifth wave and we have impulse lower... I am not a big fan of this truncation.
If there is no reversal the index should open higher next week and rally to new highs(green). Given how the charts look this scenario has lower probability... but with FOMC and the big tech companies reporting next week I am sure the big boys will organize one last rally to lure the sheeple, which are now well trained like Pavlov's dog.


Intermediate term - last week I have added w-x-y labels... it is not possible to say from the October low if we have a-b-c with c=a or impulse with extended fifth wave. The bulls are seeing impulse, the bears a-b-c. For me it does not matter - cycles are saying this is important high namely 4 year cycle high end of story.
Bearish daily and weekly candles and RSI below the trend line after divergence.... with this signals it is difficult to see another higher high. Single shares with reversal candles across the board too...


Long term - at the top of wave B, expect sell off to begin and to continue into Q2.2020. It will complete the correction which begun in January 2018. Alternate scenarios - three waves lower for C triangle or impulse C for running flat.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower with sell signals.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero after divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - just turned lower with sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - just turned lower with sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - just turned lower with sell signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - sell signal, it looks like double top.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher lows and divergences, the trend line connecting the highs was hit. Final pullback and a spike higher should follow.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower again after another lower high and divergences.


HURST CYCLES
Daily(trading) cycle - close below MA10 and the trend line, RSI broke below MA18 and the trend line. Sell signal has been triggered. Entry point is discussed on the first chart.

Hurst cycles - DJ 40 day cycle highs sine wave, 4x40d cycles make one 20w cycle.... it looks like the market is turning lower right on time.


Week 16 for the 20 week cycle, week 38 for the 40 week high-to-high cycle - 4 year cycle high is imminent.

49 comments:

  1. https://www.tradingview.com/i/LlNHyaZb/

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    1. https://s3.tradingview.com/y/yx9MvZvE_big.png

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    2. The highest point on your chart is 3254 yet the S&P went to 3337, which is 83 additional points beyond your peak. How are the charts you posted valid? In the interest of price discovery can you elaborate?

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    3. non ha importanza ,anche se dovrebbe andare piu' in alto e' sempre 3 di 3 , "tre estesa , molto probabile 4 di 3 irregolare oltre lo 0,38% di ritracciamento "sui 0,50" e onda 5 di 3 failure "

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    4. Tuttavia, se l’onda 3 si rivelasse veramente eccezionale nella sua estensione, è possibile che la successiva onda 4 si manifesti come correzione severa, veloce e violenta, creando delle condizioni per cui l’onda 5 potrà faticare a raggiungere nuovi massimi sopra l’onda 3.

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    5. https://www.tradingview.com/x/NWwtsJV0/

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    6. Here we go again... there is no third wave see my previous post.

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  2. Congrats Krasi,looks like your predictions are coming true, well done for staying the course!

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    1. It is too early, we have to see either overlapping or that this is just w1 of bigger impulse.

      But the price action shows why I use this partial early entry - I am seeing the same repeating over and over... the reversal starts like another corrective wave then accelerates and over night gaps or over the weekend and there you have it 90-100 points lower.

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    2. Thank you Krasi

      Great call

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  3. Avi says that it is iii of (iii) of 3 of (3) of III of (III) :)))

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    1. He was saying exactly the same in January 2018 too:)

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  4. Replies
    1. I think SC is right about the turn date 04.02, just it will be a lower high and this week will be a low around FOMC.
      This weekend when I looked the charts closer I saw that we have reversal... I wanted to go long volatility too:) Now we have to wait about a week.

      This are just preliminary measurements which must be adjusted as the move progress - TVIX higher to around 55 then lower to 47-48 and big up after that around 67-70

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  5. The 2,5w cycle low was not the other day, it is today, there are still 3-4 days to go down

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    1. I say this because the last 2.5 week high cycle was on 22 January and the next should last around 4-5 days.
      In addition, the last 5 week high cycle was 2 January so there are 3-4 days left

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    2. Yes, looking the pattern and my sine waves:) we should see a low before FOMC and a few days higher.

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    3. A few days higher to where? Are you saying the move since Friday is corrective?

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    4. No, the price follows so far the pattern from the first chart so I do not have a reason to think that something else is going on.
      And if we see higher high even better:)

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    5. It went below the red line in the first chart. So I am just wondering what level or when is a good entry point on the short side?

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    6. This 20 points lower do not change anything, the pattern seems to work.
      Yesterday was good entry point testing resistance and MA10 on the daily chart.
      My feeling tells me it is possible that we are in the middle of this zig-zag and there will be one more opportunity, but with corrective waves it is not a guarantee.

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  6. Krasi tvix I shorted 54 and 45 how low do you think still 47

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    1. I am not sure if the down move has begun... but yes the target should be 45.

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  7. I thought tvix will drop and fill 5 min gap at 45

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  8. Quick update DJ futures 4h chart - https://imgur.com/a/eXMAHdo
    The idea is that we should see a short term low.... watching the pattern and the RSI divergence at the moment I do not think that a big wave lower has begun.

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    1. Appreciate the timely update today, good call! What is your target for this up move for S&P and your view on a good entry pt on the short side?

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    2. Not sure about the pattern and it is not consistent across the indices so it is difficult to give a target.
      I think we will see higher prices into Tuesday/Wednesday next week and this should be a good entry point.

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  9. Hi Krasi, you were spot on with the short on oil! Good one..

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    Replies
    1. Yes, it is a nice move lower:) top at week 38 and impulse lower.

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  10. Will i have a chance to buy AMZN again?

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    1. I meant to say .. with AMZN smashing it, consumers looking strong, do you still see declines?

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    2. Of course AMZN just joined the others with w-x-y/B corrective move from Dec.2018

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  11. And if yesterday was 20w cycle low ?

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    1. Than we should see a higher high and the next 20w cycle failing and reversing quickly.... with M pattern aka double top.
      We are at 40w/18m top at least so it is a terminal pattern and not just starting from important low like 18m low to expect the next 20w to be strong too, running another 3-4 months higher.

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  12. You were right on the big tech moving markets up, but no new highs or near it despite their significance. Is this a good sign that a top is in?

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    1. Yes, it is a bearish sign obviously the participation in the move higher is narrow and a few names can not pull the indexes higher despite their weight.

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  13. what do you mean in crude with week 38?

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    1. High-to-high week 38 for the 40 week cycle. The previous one was in April 10 days before the indexes... they are following crude oil again with a high two weeks later at week 38 too.

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  14. and what would be the previous 4 years cycle high and low?

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  15. Replies
    1. I think SVXY higher to MA200 on hourly chart which means TVIX around 43.

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    2. You and sc have the same price

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  16. Wha do you think of the dax, 20w low in december?
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EPmifTlXsAAiXIV?format=png&name=small

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    1. If you count from August and double top - the next 20w already turned lower(discussed above).

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  17. It does not look neither like reversal higher nor like wave 3/c lower.
    I think we have corrective move which is not finished.... probably this - https://imgur.com/a/P5ctQbv
    a-b-c with complex b wave and 62% retracement - we will know in a few hours.

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  18. It is reversal, please, please, please :)

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  19. Been saying for a year 3330 to 3340 should end 3 while never changing the count. Possible to extend to 3500. 3337 may be the top???? Good luck to all.

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    1. Chart please... do not forget to come back to explain why you were wrong.

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