Feb 1, 2020

Weekly preview

Second bearish weekly candle with market breadth in sell mode... now it is confirmed - the 20 week cycle turned lower and the indices will move lower for a few weeks.
What is much worse on the last day of the month big sell off and we have bearish monthly candle instead of nothingburger - indecision candle. I was watching and expecting such candle, but with only one day left I gave up and the market makes what you expect in the most unexpected way:)


TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Another short term pattern from Kris which looks better.

Short term - all possible patterns I see are - impulse with extended fifth wave 5=1to3, zig-zag with a=c for "a" of a bigger zig-zag or diagonal(yellow) if we see a bigger pop up next week. It sounds complicated, but it is not because all three have the same path - final up and down for the pattern to be completed then retracement higher.
Looking the MACD/RSI divergences it is hard to imagine that the move is just starting to accelerate.

Not so complicated AAPL it looks like impulse 1-2-3 and probably H&S top formation.


Intermediate term - TA looks interesting... the market does not start big sell off when it is above MA50 first you see a bounce with lower high or higher high with divergences then a bigger sell off follows and currently MA50 is being tested so we should see a retracement higher.
The indicators MACD/RSI breaking the trend lines from the October low. If we have just small a-b-c for iv/3 the next lower trend line will be tested and the price will turn higher again.
Look at RSI - often when you have fourth wave RSI breaks the trend line which is early warning and moves deeply lower, but stays above 50 - see the circles it happens all the time. If this is small degree wave iv/3 not even 4 why is RSI below 50? Why in the middle of the third wave we have bearish monthly candle? Just asking the bulls, I now the answer there is no third wave in the first place.
I expect bigger decline and it should test the area around support(the previous four peaks), MA200 and 38% retracement.


Long term - wave B should be finished, expect the sell off to continue into Q2.2020. It will complete the correction which begun in January 2018. Alternate scenarios - three waves lower for C triangle or impulse C for running flat.


MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower with sell signals.
McClellan Oscillator - second slightly oversold level with divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - sell signal.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - sell signal.
Fear Indicator VIX - it looks like we have an impulse higher and I think it should test the broken trend line connecting the highs, then we should see big spike higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - heading lower and broke below the trend line connecting all the lows from Dec.2018.


HURST CYCLES
Daily(trading) cycle - the signal is sell. I have paid too much attention to the divergence on the 1h/4h chart and ignored the entry point - the price was rejected four times at MA10.... my mistake. It is not fatal I think we will have another chance. RSI is moving too far too quickly from the trend line and MA18 so it should snap back and this will be another entry point.


Hurst cycles - SP500 20d sine wave. The question is when to expect 20w low? The Hurst guys are counting short half cycle(only 3x20d cycles) and from there another 10 weeks or 4x20d cycles with a low mid-February(red arrow). Full 20w cycle with 8x20d cycles is the first week of March(black arrow). We can only wait and watch how the pattern develops. If I am right that we have B wave the decline should be bigger and take longer or late February/first week of March.


Week 17 for the 20 week cycle, which with high probability turned lower. Based on the high-to-high count which is minimum 40w cycle high I expect to see a bigger decline than most expect.

174 comments:

  1. I appreciate your work. I don't think the market is going to have a major top anytime soon. In fact, I think we are still in a long-term uptrend. Think about it, we just broke out of a 2 year consolidation. I think we will keep going higher until 2021 and we will have a parabolic move up with a blow off top. These dips should be bought. We could still head lower right now, but the market imo, is going much higher.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I understand that you gave up:) I can say good luck and pray that we will see a shallow move lower in February.

      Delete
    2. actually I was looking at the chart one last time. We may make one more higher high around 3400, then go down in a C wave. I don't think this C wave will retest Dec lows, I think it will end around 2600-2700. Then we will finish with one last impulse up into 2021.

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    3. Vertical moves are not followed by orderly declines... healthy 10% corrections.

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  2. Hello Krasi, do you think it is time for bigger decline for the Palladium till 1600 and for Natural Gas till 1.50?

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    Replies
    1. Palladium the trend looks intact - RSI retraced a lot without big price movement and it is above the trend line and 50. I would say a correction before another high. If you see divergence than it is time for a bigger correction.

      NG I think it is time for a bounce higher a few weeks before continuation lower.

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    2. For Palladium 1800 or 2000 before another high?

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  3. It looks to me that yesterday’s sell off was 1of 3 down and Wednesday and Thursday rebound was wave 2 with 50% retracement. Also Vix has already tested the top the trend line connecting the highs and moved higher again yesterday. The small a-b-c off the 50MA should be only 2of 3 and Monday or Tuesday we should continue much lower into 3100 area. Wave 5 should complete the move as in the first chart but I think it will be fast, 5-8 days. Then a bigger rebound before a more dramatic sell off. What do you think Krasi?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If I understand right the idea is 1-2 i-ii count and we are in middle of the third wave, than it should be something like this - https://imgur.com/a/shKZZQ2

      To be honest this is much better than my short term options:)
      And if you project the bigger impulse in time and price it fits ok - it would be finished at 50% retracement at support the August/October lows and in the time frame which I expect.

      Now we watch what happens next week - if the indexes open lower and continue lower for the rest of the week.

      Delete
    2. Yes, i-ii is what I meant I think.. the chart you attached is my preference. Thanks Krasi

      Delete
  4. If this 40 week high cycle was not also 18 months and 4 years high, what would it be?
    What is the alternative for the 4 year cycle high?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The alternative is September 2018 for 4 year cycle high... too short for me less than 3,5 years.
      The last important high was September.2018 or 16 months... this is 18 month cycle high too, Ido not see alternative to this.

      Delete
  5. I had added to the 1/3 short on last bounce.
    Where is the person who had suggested max pain on shorts?
    Well done Krasi.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. congrats. looks like your losing even more money.

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  6. If september 2018 was 4 year high then december 2018 4 year low?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This is shorter than 3 years.... this is way too short, for me just 2x18 month cycles.

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  7. Markets holding up well despite China being down. More QE pumping through the system.

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  8. It looks like ABC again, then new ATH

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  9. Well, this move this morning seems to disprove your analysis which indicates shallower retracement. Don't think this will continue dropping. At least you were right about the first few days.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The herd well trained like Pavlov's dog blinded by their own stupidity and greed....
      Look at some chart before making conclusions.

      Delete
  10. NYSE interesting pattern - https://imgur.com/a/Egs7Tyo
    It works for SP500 and DJ, NDX the same zig-zags up could complete ED with slightly higher high for double top.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Just to be clear, you think we can make a slightly higher high than the ATH on SPX?

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    2. No, NDX if it is an ED.

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    3. So are we looking for an entry pt to add to on the short side or getting out of the way here? Just wondering your latest thinking here. Thx

      Delete
  11. Krasi you still expect 43 on tvix?

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  12. The strength of this bull run is evident in the way topping process is happening, confusing many to be a V recovery to new ATH... to me looks tail end of a long innings.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Topping is obvious, but most traders refuse to accept it.... cheering corrective price action with bearish candle yesterday.
      At least MA200 will be tested no matter if they like it or not.

      Delete
    2. What makes topping so obvious, I see such complicated charts, difficult to see where topping signal is? Any insight into topping based off strong move higher today?

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  13. When you say test ma200, at what timeframe do you refer to? Daily, hourly etc ?

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  14. New ATH, after ABC doun, printing, printing...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Great the sheeple drinking the kool aid again and will hold the bag at the top again:)

      Delete
    2. Tbh Krasi, I have followed and supported your views for a while now.
      However if after all this run-up the test is 200dma 3043, I think that is a drawdown bulls can accept.

      The 2200 scenario this year is perhaps the only redemption.

      You had nailed it in 2018, Hope it's similar now.

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    3. This will be just the beginning....

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  15. Looks like it wants to rest the ATH soon, regardless of topping. From learning At what point do you rule out it topping and concede that the uptrend is not complete?

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    Replies
    1. When I see an impulse and all we have is a-b-c higher with a=c
      Showed NYSE chart yesterday... I doubt someone take is serious....

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    2. has c not exceeded a now?

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  16. I have lost hope of going up

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  17. Up or down? Because it's currently going up !

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  18. down, I'm so tired that I don't know what I say anymore

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This is a patience games, there is no place for emotions just charts.

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    2. you are emotional krasi. Don't you see we are moving higher?

      Delete
  19. Krasi, maybe 31 january 2,5w low?

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  20. Hey Krasi,

    As I said earlier on the post, your chart for shallow retracement was clearly wrong. Yesterday showed strong move upward. Now today we are moving up even stronger. You can't say everyone is an idiot for making money. You lost money last two days giving back all of your recent gains from your short position. That is not intelligent. That is stubborn. I am currently holding my put position because I trade weekly moves. I see this blowing up to a daily moving average break upward and then weekly moving average upward. I do not see having a high conviction as a good trait for a trader. You have been wrong, so have I. But I am humble enough to admit wrong when I am losing money. Trading is about riding the market. It doesn't matter high high the market goes. The best traders ride it to the top and sacrifice some money during the turn and continue to ride it down.

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  21. Careful what you say. Krasi is now deleting post.

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  22. dec3rd and 4th gap will be filled 3080

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  23. This market reminds me of 1987...

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  24. https://www.tradingview.com/x/a3mvwT7s/

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    Replies
    1. https://www.tradingview.com/x/NBzh9N9O/

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    2. That is exactly what I see. Just bought puts this afternoon.

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    3. That chart, if it happens, takes you back only to 3200 ...
      This is exactly the kind of analysis which makes the trolls criticize Krasi. Too long a wait for too shallow a pullback.

      Delete
  25. sorry but this is just another example of how wrong Elliott wave is. sorry but I just have to say it...Krasi, pls forgive me, as you eventually might be right,(even if it really does not matter anymore since you have been so wrong for so long), but I would love for you to confess that you also have your doubts on EW...pls come clean!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Just another clueless expert....

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    2. Tell the troll to get his shine box and shine my shoes lol

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  26. Jijiiijjijii!!!

    Krasis greatests hits... Or greatests shits.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Just another lost guy.... like the rest of the sheeple... cheering the top:)

      Delete
    2. Krasi, 1millisecond glance to see if someone is fckng with you...stop reading that crap the moment you realize it. You have an audience, stop focusing on the trolls please. Let them write their bs, fuckem all, I just want ur updated thoughts from a clear head. Thank you for your views

      Delete
  27. The top that keeps on giving.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, gives you the chance to exit at better price not that you will use it... you will ride 10% lower.
      Nothing different than the analysis above bounce from MA50 and testing the broken trend line - https://invst.ly/pr2z9.

      Delete
  28. krasi you should be a lot more humble...instead of calling people "lost"...or "clueless"...I think you are the one that is clueless...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Have you read the comment? I have to be humble seriously?
      This are guys totally lost control blinded by greed showing all their stupidity.

      Delete
  29. https://www.tradingview.com/x/2MlG18BM/

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    Replies
    1. Here we go again!

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    2. Perfect example of the Krasi indicator at work

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    3. 17 points away from ATH, at its Wednesday. But if course NO new ATH, we are the stupid ones, clueless, idiots.

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    4. 8 points now

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  30. New ATH by end of week?

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  31. Similar to 2018, right now euphoria and momentum is ignoring all the risks or finding reasons to brush them aside.
    That's the only thing left to hang hat on for a steep correction.
    Last few sessions felt like HF piling in longs, FOMO syndrome at its best.

    ReplyDelete
  32. IL TEAM DI RICERCA DELL'UNIVERSITÀ ZHEJIANG HA TROVATO UNA DROGA EFFICACE PER TRATTARE LE PERSONE CON IL NUOVO CORONAVIRUS --- "I commercianti hanno ritenuto che la situazione sia ora più probabile che sia sotto controllo e si spera che la diffusione della crisi sanitaria sarà ostacolata e che si spera porti a un ritorno alla normalità in Cina e nel mondo",

    ReplyDelete
  33. Replies
    1. you have better insight than Krasi who is infallible.

      Delete
  34. i future sono aumentati ancora di più mercoledì grazie ai rapporti dei media statali cinesi secondo cui i ricercatori avevano trovato un vaccino.

    Ma solo pochi minuti fa, un titolo interessante ha colpito il nastro che ha versato un po 'd'acqua fredda sull'ottimismo illimitato del mercato. Un portavoce dell'OMS ha riferito che non ci sono "terapie efficaci conosciute" per il virus dopo che gli è stato chiesto di possibili cure.

    I ricercatori di tutto il mondo si stanno affrettando a sviluppare un vaccino, ma alcuni esperti e funzionari della sanità pubblica hanno avvertito che ciò potrebbe richiedere fino a un anno per essere sviluppato e testato con successo.

    Invece di cancellare i suoi guadagni, il mercato si è brevemente abbassato

    ReplyDelete
  35. Krasi now that we blasted through up trend line what would be a good target for tvix 38

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The target has not changed, watch SVXY not SP500. SVXY will test MA200 on the hourly chart, which was the target and for TVIX around 45. This is an entry point. The markets are making double top.

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  36. Krasi indicator strikes again.

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  37. Hey Krasi,

    Yesterday I simply pointed out the obvious for everyone on this site which was that we are headed higher. I have looked at your charts and fell into the trap of holding onto hope rather than profits. Now my profits are completely wiped out and looks like your trend line is broken. Hey, now you are saying double top? First it was shallow retracement then drop. Then it was deeper retracement then drop. Then it was move to the broken trend line then drop. Now its double top and drop???!!! Do you hear yourself?

    I don't blame you for my stupidity. But it was stupidity nevertheless. I say I was so stupid. But you still think you are some kind of a genius when all you do is keep moving the lines. You can't take yourself so seriously as to think you can't possibly be wrong???

    ReplyDelete
  38. Sad part is plenty of EW analyst have been calling this right. You just got caught up with a guy that has no idea what he is doing. Been like this for over a year. A good EW analyst would have adjusted a long time ago. The trend is up. Ride it until it changes. There is a reason this blog is free. Good luck.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Who has been calling this right?

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    2. Yeah I think they are all charlatans

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    3. Bro you need to shut the fuckup already and stop hiding behind a fake name You have a choice and The Choice is to get off this block

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    4. OK tough guy. LOL

      Delete
  39. Amazon has turned red on the day, erasing some of its massive post-earnings gains, following a report that CEO Jeff Bezos sold 0.2% of the company for $1.8 billion. However, before investors decide that the CEO is calling the top, note that Bezos sold 905,456 Amazon shares on Friday and Monday under a pre-arranged trading plan, the filings reveal.

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  40. I see why Louis is so pissed. I read previous post. He is bleeding out of his ass with Tvix. LOL. Good job taking advice from a stranger genius.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Listen you loser I shorted that piece of shit at 55 I dont hold it piker what you lose 4000 bucks hiding behind a fake name That's what a pussie does

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    2. What are you talking about? Why are you insulting people who are pointing out the obvious? He has been wrong over and over again. I lost money listening to this guy. I just wish he would actually admit that this conviction was unfounded and that he doensn't know what the heck is going on. How about some honesty instead of calling everyone a sheeple or greedy idiots. I just want to make some money trading.

      Delete
  41. Exhaustion gap
    It occurs at the end of a market movement. https://www.tradingview.com/x/YP78UKOW/

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  42. https://www.tradingview.com/x/UmNPi9f5/

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    Replies
    1. NASDAQ hourly - double maximum https://www.tradingview.com/x/YHguCNf8/

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  43. guess you got stopped out

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  44. Hit the ATH and plunged 4 points lower. Maybe now it will start going to 2200

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  45. Thought krasi said no ath this week. What goin on?

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  46. I lost my entire 2% of trading capital because of this stupid site. I kept reading these excuses and saw the chart and actually believed it. Sounded logical. But you know what? It turns out that I was the idiot for believing that some charts and information derived from charts can somehow predict the future. That doesn't happen folks. Haven't we all lost money on this?

    Now I expect krasi to say another higher high looks better. No shit! Then are we all going to start shorting again when we see a negative candle at the top to repeat this ridiculous experience?

    Please I still have my puts and would like to know if there is any logic to holding them. Because so far all I see is that I tried learning trading and have lost 2% of my hard earned money on a high conviction prediction.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Trading is an emotional business, but the best traders leave the emotions out of it.

      1. This is not an exact science, where technicals can tell you crystal ball exact date and time of reversal. It's about probabilities.
      2. This is a free site, if you don't like the work feel free to leave.
      3. I am sorry to hear that you lost 2% , but that is not Krasi's fault. I am sure if you had made money it would have been all down to your own brilliance. That's not how it works.
      4. Suggest you put this down to learning cost and find other strategies that better suit your risk appetite.

      Goodluck!

      p.s - I am also long puts, purchased Tuesday holding on till end of month expiry.

      Delete
    2. Read the disclaimer. I do not give advice to take positions. Take responsibility for your decision instead of blaming a free blog.
      Make a difference analysis or setup is not the same like trade.
      My advice is always wait for confirmation - there is no such. My advice for those which trade without confirmation is always to take small positions... small enough that several percent against you will not hurt.

      Personally I did not make a trade - you need confirmation impulse lower followed by corrective move there were no such.

      Delete
    3. You said you had an initial starter short on...did I miss the heads up when you covered it? You used some strong words this week defending a corrective up move for someone with no short on. That's not nice.

      Delete
    4. Btw, if you are saying you are an idiot for believing in charts to predict future, what were you doing in a technical analysis forum in the first place anyway?

      Analyse earnings, valuations or anything else that you believe in. Find the right tool for you rather than come to the wrong place and then blame everyone else on hindsight.

      There are no free lunches in the market, only conviction and sticking to it brings rewards.

      Delete
  47. 2%? That's it? Who cares about 2%? If 2% is a lot for you go buy a CD om Bankrate.com

    ReplyDelete
  48. Fuck me, a new ATH this week. I never in a million years thought it would happen. Oh wait Krasi said it wouldn't, so of course it wood. Krasi, give up mate, your brutal at this, and you've lost all credibility.

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  49. New ATH this morning, as I say, printing

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Why do not you look at the charts instead of repeating the same bullshit?

      Delete
  50. Right now while virus newsflow is still bad, the strength of US equities is causing other risk assets to bid up. Oil recovered even Hangseng is rebounding sharply.

    This euphoria feels exactly like Feb 2018, except far greater risks in system.

    How this translates to reversal based on technicals I am not sure. But it all looks good till it doesn't.

    So either trust the levels and play short. Or join the herd and chase. Either way best to spare the ATH daily update. Since market at ATH any daily move higher is a new ATH by definition anyway, no need for expert commentary to point that out ...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I left all this noise on purpose... for all this guys to look back and see what went wrong.
      Clearly a mistake.... the herd will never change otherwise TA and EW will not work.
      Starting from now comments which has nothing to do with analysis will be deleted.

      This blog is not a stage for emotionally immature wannabe traders.

      Delete
    2. That makes sense Krasi, keep the faith and keep up the good work!

      Delete
  51. For those who still want to look at the charts and figure out the pattern etc.


    Short term
    NDX - https://invst.ly/prrr9
    SPX - https://invst.ly/prrta
    DJI - https://invst.ly/prrud

    It looks like a mirror move of October last year - only for three days(the first three days of the month) reached the monthly ATR(3) hitting 40 week cycle low and reversal. Now for three days(the first three days of the month) reached monthly ATR(3) at week 40 for expected 40w cycle high.

    SPX daily chart https://invst.ly/prr-r Look at RSI nothing more than test of the broken trend line with divergence. Exactly the same on weekly chart. The short term charts above show almost complete move.

    Make your own conclusions. I have made mine - TA,cycles and market breadth are sending clear messages...

    ReplyDelete
  52. Is there any chance that last week was a 20-week cycle low?
     

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, this is more likely if this is the high. First new highs at week 18 is suspicious second with such right translated cycle the next one should make higher high. Probably a mirror image of the previous 40w cycle which was 23+18 and this one 17+21/22/23.

      The other option is this week is 40w cycle high, then 2-3 weeks lower for 20w low and one more higher high... too strong and right translated in this case to just move lower.

      I will watch the next move lower corrective zig-zag or impulse for reversal.

      Delete
    2. You mean corrective to 200dma ~ 3050, then higher high followed by a reversal to 40w low 2300/2400? Something like that ?

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    3. No, if it is corrective should be something quick and small 3200... if we see MA200 forget about higher highs.

      Delete
  53. Why the next one should make higher high ?

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    Replies
    1. When a cycle runs for example 18 weeks higher and 2 weeks lower it is obvious it is very strong and you should expect continuation.

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  54. You say "right translated in this case to just move lower", then the 4 year cycle low could not go down much, why not left translated?, 3-4 weeks up and 3 month down for the 4 year low

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I am not sure I understand the question.... probably a new 20w cycle has begun, judging by the market breadth and indicator divergences it should be left translated. How much 1-2-3-5 weeks - we have to wait and see.

      Delete
    2. But left translated not?

      Delete
    3. Yes, it should be left translated...

      Delete
  55. Have you seen the sharp divergence between January 17 and yesterday in the stocks above 200 day ma?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No... but most of the market breadth indicators are with divergences.

      Delete
  56. If last week was 20w low and this week is 20w and 40w high then there is a problem because there is no 20w high between October 20w low and January 20w low.
    And then there is 2 20w low between September 20w high and 20w high February.
    What do you think Krasi?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I know this:) the high has not changed it was 3 weeks ago. High does not mean higher high.

      Delete
  57. Contracts on all main US equity indexes pointed to record highs and a fourth day of gains after China said it will lower levies on $75 billion of U.S. goods next week, likely satisfying part of the interim trade deal.

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  58. bought vix, never broke it's support. This rally ends soon

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  59. the JPM analysts are turning bearish on stocks, and "tactically trim the risk of our portfolio further and recommend a more modest equity overweight of 5% vs. 7% previously."

    The reason: "the market has been too quick to price in a recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, any re-acceleration in coronavirus cases as a result of factory re-openings or any delay in re-openings beyond next week, would both be negative for markets." As a result, "despite this week’s equity market rebound we are reluctant to chase short-term momentum" JPM's strategist warn as they trim the risk of their portfolio further and recommend a more modest equity overweight of 5% vs. 7% previously.

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  60. Any Corona virus reports near the chinatown area of NYC will induce panic. Chinatown is less than a mile from Wall Street

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    Replies
    1. As a New Yorker and a human being, I find this last comment offensively stupid and racist and certainly nothing to do with TA...

      Delete
    2. That Don't sound racist to me I am from New York what's if you're crying racism you must be a Liberal

      Delete
    3. Fat fuckin' Louis who can't even speak English says he lives in nyc...sure. The idea that Chinatown is where Coronavirus will make it's first appearance makes you either racist or clueless...you think anyone who's been to Wuhan or been exposed to someone infected must naturally live in Chinatown?!? Douche comment and the idea that it's proximity to Wall Street is a risk to markets makes you an idiot or prehistoric.. no one even works near Wall Street anymore, we now have modern electronic exchanges.. and besides, what fuckin' difference would it make

      Delete
    4. Listen you fuckin loser my best friend is chinese you moron and my sisterinlaw is chinese learn how to trade you whack job.

      Delete
  61. I don't think volatility is a good trade right now

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  62. I rather short volatility one when itexplodes

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  63. Replies
    1. More likely it is preparing to jump higher.

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  64. https://www.tradingview.com/x/2rhl3zUj/

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    Replies
    1. I think more likely triangle or flat.

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    2. https://www.tradingview.com/x/e9ZK71uK/

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    3. i trfaded tvix 3 times today made 2.5 points

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  65. Apple Warns Coronavirus Could Jeopardize Orders For 45 Million Airpods

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  66. spx has to drop below 3332 to get 3290

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  67. https://www.tradingview.com/x/kO3cL1lZ/

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    Replies
    1. https://www.tradingview.com/x/rMqCDdxP/

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  68. looking good krasi!

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  69. https://www.tradingview.com/x/jB0fIkTO/

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  70. https://www.tradingview.com/x/CRJViqK9/

    ReplyDelete
  71. Refinitiv data shows S&P 500 firms derive 6.2% of revenue from China and Hong Kong.

    The semiconductors and semiconductor equipment industry group have about 30% of revenue exposure to China and Hong Kong, which is the most exposed industry. Evans-Pritchard also warned that the collapse in Chinese oil consumption is "the biggest shock to oil markets since the Lehman crisis."

    Two-thirds of China's economy was shut down overnight and has led to a collapse in energy demand, which now poses a significant threat to corporate bond markets across the world.

    Coronavirus isn't just infecting people and killing them, it's also creating havoc and disrupting complex supply chains that will lead many companies to revise their earnings down in 1H20.El-Erian said the economic shock to Wuhan and the surrounding manufacturing hubs is happening at a time when the global economy is slowing and interest rates among central banks are near zero.

    ReplyDelete
  72. With the ath of yesterday the high cycle of 20-40 weeks and 4 years was also yesterday so the low cycle of 20 weeks could not be the last week, it should be in 2-3 weeks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Why is the 40w low in October and not in August?
      With 18 weeks higher and 2 lower especially with this size of the move up another higher high is a guarantee.... what happens than with the 4 year cycle high?

      Delete
  73. Yesterday 4 year cycle high, today we should not see higher high, from today go down strong

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not even one more intraday high? Please we were waiting for so long for this high:) - https://imgur.com/a/mm9d7td

      Delete
  74. ok :) today 4 year cycle high, from the next week down to 3000

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The candle formation on the daily chart looks very bad... if the indexes do not recovery quickly it looks bad for higher high.

      Delete
  75. Replies
    1. At the moment is waiting to see if the indexes will recover for one more high or accelerate lower and signal that we have a high.

      Delete
  76. Guangzhou, the capital of China's southwestern Guangdong Province and the country's fifth largest city with nearly 15 million residents, has just joined the ranks of cities imposing a mandatory lockdown on all citizens, effectively trapping residents inside their homes, with only limited permission to venture into the outside world to buy essential supplies.

    The decision means 3 provinces, 60 cities and 400 million people are now facing China's most-strict level of lockdown as Beijing struggles to contain the coronavirus outbreak as the virus has already spread to more than 2 dozen countries.



    That's more than 400 million people forcibly locked inside their homes for 638 deaths? Just think about that: If there was ever a reason to believe that Beijing is lying about the numbers (and not just because Tencent accidentally leaked the real data), this is it.

    ReplyDelete
  77. Fed board warning that the coronavirus outbreak "presented a new risk" to the economic outlook for the U.S. and warned of disruptions in global markets.

    Specifically, with "fragilities in the corporate and financial sector" leaving China vulnerable to adverse developments, "because of the size of the Chinese economy, significant distress in China could spill over to U.S. and global markets through a retrenchment of risk appetite, U.S. dollar appreciation, and declines in trade and commodity prices" the Fed warned, adding that "the effects of the coronavirus in China have presented a new risk to the outlook."

    In short: if a global virus pandemic is about to halt global growth, the Fed is confident it can fix it by just making money even cheaper and/or printing it outright.

    ReplyDelete
  78. "The candle formation on the daily chart looks very bad.."
    What is unique about this candle? Yesterday's candle still makes a higher high, right?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It is bearish reversal pattern - evening doji star combination of three candles.
      Better visible on DJIA which shows the first cracks - https://imgur.com/a/17LdS0A

      Delete
  79. Thanks, the evening doji star pattern is clear on DJ chart.
    The RSI divergence is also building up so nicely on the VIX/UVXY etc on longer time frames indicating that volatility may shoot up.

    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete