Weekly preview

Nothing new whole week doing nothing, I have the feeling the market is just waiting for something. Still waiting for the small c-wave from the last zig-zag to be completed. NYSE made higher high now only DJ is lagging... waiting for DJ if it will join with a higher high or not.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal. Too many RSI divergences, too late to buy.
Analysis - sell the rips, long topping process.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - we have another zig-zag a-b-c, waiting to be completed. The big picture - there is a lot of room for interpretation I think it is another double zig-zag for c/C/Y. Around 4565 the two zig-zags will have the same size.

Intermediate term - from the March low we have one big zig-zag consisting of two zig-zags, which itself consist of zig-zags. You can call it W-X-Y, but there is no impulses.
Some are watching different EDs I think it is another double zig-zag
RSI/MACD with multiple divergences, it looks like we have mature pattern what ever it is.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of b-wave and c-wave will follow.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - nothing new the McClellan indicators are trying to turn up, but all the other indicators are pointing to a high.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - double top below 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - double top below 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher lows.
Advance-Decline Issues - trying to reach overbought level.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - I think we saw 20d high on Monday and 20d low on Friday. Next is 20d high which will be 5w/20w high too.

The long term count is not very clear, there is no visible significant low, the indices do not show consistent picture so we will be sure only in hindsight where the 18m low is. Two options:
- bullish 40w/18m cycle low in September/early October with one extra 10w cycle for the missing one from 2020.
- bearish the 18m low was in July which means to expect decline into 20w low until November. NDX,NYSE,DAX,RUT,DJT have lows in July so this is the low to pick for possible 18m low.... only DJ have the low in June.