Weekly preview

Tricky price action... it looks slow but every pop is hammered... it broke important trend line but it is at support MA50... it could be an impulse lower but crappy one you can not be sure.

We have some change in price behavior not a big decline but long - we had only once so long decline this year in February. This should mean we have a decline of the same degree or 20w low and this is what should happen after 20w high - 4 month between the last two highs May-September.
Market breadth does not show signs for a pending low or reversal, it is taking a lot of time 10 days already so close to 20d high. My best guess is based on short term cycles - I think we had 20 low on Tuesday and now sideways pattern probably triangle is running for 20d high.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal. The price is below MA10 and hesitates to rally above it.
Analysis - sell the rips, long topping process.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - still not very clear... crappy impulse wave 1 or a-wave and now in 2/b sideways move completed around FOMC. Less likely continuation lower for c-wave.

Intermediate term - from the March low we have one big zig-zag consisting of two zig-zags, which itself consist of zig-zags. You can call it W-X-Y, but there is no impulses.
Waiting for more price action to confirm intermediate term top. This time the price is struggling at MA50. All the previous 7 occasions were clear - touch and strong up, now it takes days and nothing happens.

Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of b-wave and c-wave will follow.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - nothing new, I do not see a sign for a pending low and reversal.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - pointing lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - pointing lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - preparing for a spike higher?
Advance-Decline Issues - heading lower.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d/5w low was expected this week. I think it was on Tuesday alternate Friday or early next week. Now we are watching for 20d high already at day 10 so it should not last long probably mid next week FOMC.
In the bullish case wee should see 1,5-2 weeks higher(green). In the bearish case the price continues lower and we have consecutive lower highs for the 20d and the 5w highs(red).
It is spending a lot of time below MA10 so with every day the bearish scenarios is getting more likely.

Week 8 for the 20w cycle? You can see how every time we see decline into 20w low RSI crosses below the MA, three times in a row and this is the fourth time - this is a hint that a decline into 20w low is underway.
The long term count is not very clear, there is no visible significant low, the indices do not show consistent picture so we will be sure only in hindsight where the 18m low is. Two options:
- bullish 40w/18m cycle low in September/early October with one extra 10w cycle for the missing one from 2020.
- bearish the 18m low was in July which means to expect decline into 20w low until November. NDX,NYSE,DAX,RUT,DJT have lows in July so this is the low to pick for possible 18m low.... only DJ have the low in June.