Trading trigger - no clear signal a lot of crossings typical for sideways pattern.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, I think we have major top which will be tested one more time. Intermediate term - should be more clear next week.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - possible double zig-zag from the November high(white) or diagonal from the late December high(yellow).
P.S. the other scenario triangle is shown on the daily and cycle chart... not to overload the hourly chart.
Intermediate term - I see W-x-Y(yellow) with complex double zig-zag for Y=W, alternate we have Z-wave(red).
Waiting to see which pattern will play out.
Long term - topping process running for months and maturing. Some kind of corrective wave b-wave and c-wave will follow.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned up and starting to show strength. Worst case should be one more low with divergence.
McClellan Oscillator - retracing higher.
McClellan Summation Index - turned up.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turned up.
Bullish Percentage - turned up.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - tested the 25 level again and turned up.
Fear Indicator VIX - looks like a wedge and time to retrace.
Advance-Decline Issues - retracing higher.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - this week should be 10w cycle high two months from the previous significant high. Next we should see decline into 10w cycle low.
Week 13 for the 20 week cycle(for the case with 18 low in July).
Long term the indices are at 4 year cycle high. The 18m low either late September with one extra 20w cycle or alternate on time in June/July... waiting to see how the pattern will play out to confirm one of the two options. In both cases I expect highs echo from 2018.
18m low in July
18m low in October
If we can expect down to 4k starting this week, should that take a few weeks? Late March to 4k? Then April B? Thank you
ReplyDelete.."waiting to see how the pattern will play out to confirm one of the two option"
ReplyDeleteHow does a future event determine past pattern?
Cycle lows of higher degree like 20w/40w lows occur when an EW pattern is completed and not randomly at some low. So if we see completed pattern with very high probability this is 20w/40w low then we can count backwards and confirm where the previous important cycle low was.
DeleteI'm looking for 4450 to 4500
ReplyDeleteThen down
One more low and then higher looks more likely
DeleteNq looks like 5 waves down and now it looks like we're starting the C retrace. With the daily bull divs and everyone itching to short every bounce, I think we're going higher than most assume.
ReplyDeleteHi Krasi, Any thoughts on KWEB here? Thank you!
ReplyDeleteIt looks like double zig-zag which should complete soon and retracement higher should follow.
DeleteThank you!
ReplyDeleteWhat is the time frame for the lower low that is coming up before reversing?
ReplyDeleteSomething like 1,5-2 weeks
DeleteThank you!
DeleteBtw looking at ARKK (or any growth stock), doesn't it feel like a low of a larger degree is approaching and not just 20w low? Of course the indices are not reflecting that behavior. May be the growth stocks are just getting deflated post QE. Trying to interpret the discrepancy between the indices and some of the other sectors that started correcting in early 2021. What is your opinion?
DeleteCompare arkk to the nasdaq in 2000, eerily similar so far and if it keeps going, arkk will lose 90 percent from it's highs.
DeleteIt should be 40w low like the indices if the 18m low early summer.
DeleteThanks.
Delete