Trading trigger - still sell signal, very weak cycle high 37 days lower so after the high we should see lower low.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - one option is continuation lower for double zigzag(green) or we have not seen the 10w high and more sideways price action will follow(yellow). Interesting if you measure the next extension levels 1.38 and 1.618 and both scenarios show the same targets.
Intermediate term - I see W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y=W. The trendline is broken now waiting for a low in the next few weeks and some kind of MA200/trend line test in summer. Maybe some kind of bottoming with divergence similar to the previous low taking one month which is 5w cycle.
Long term - We saw the high, if we are lucky this is b-wave, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years. The same with the indicators just pointing lower so some kind of bottoming for several weeks is expected.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - bearish no signs of a low.
McClellan Oscillator - oscillating around the zero line.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - staying in oversold territory.
Fear Indicator VIX - up and down.
Advance-Decline Issues - oscillating around the oversold level.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - we have 20d high as expected and we should see in the next days or saw 20d low. It is difficult to place the 5w/10w lows with high confidence. Example four 5w cycles from the February low.
Week 12 for the 20w cycle if we count from the previous lowest low.
Thaks Krasi.
ReplyDeleteHi Krasi, are you still thinking the final low of this leg being in late may or early June? The markets closed may 30th, but open Tuesday may 31. I'm wondering if first of the month inflows on Wednesday might be what stops the downtrend for a while.
ReplyDeleteEither we saw the low or around mid-June.
DeleteAny thoughts on Neely's (today) SPX conjecture that a NEW bull market began at Covid-19 crash low (March 2020), with Leg 1 of new impulse ending at January 2022 top depicted in your charts above? He posits this because "... market sentiment (on all timeframes) got so bearish, so quickly, that it is inconsistent with the start of a prolonged bear market." Thanks.
DeleteKrasi, in addition to the above, Neely doesn't expect 2020 low to be broken in the next 50 to 100 years!
DeleteCompletely out of touch with reality, another EW expert will fail miserably...
DeleteIn 2018 I wrote the world as we know it will fall apart - now it is happening, it is pretty obvious and it has just started.
Capitalism is bankrupt and dead the preparation for dismantling it are running.
Those who do not see it are either brain dead or in a state of cognitive dissonance.
Dreaming of milk and honey is complete nonsense.
Thank you much, Krasi, for your upfront thoughts/reply.
DeleteKrasi, dax, march wave A, april a of B, now b of B?
ReplyDeleteYes, it looks so
DeleteKrasi, you mention capitalism is dead and bankrupt. Is there any other solution at this point to the constant money printing / ballooning of the debt? :)
ReplyDeleteYes, let the market sort it out - those with malinvestments should go bust. It is so simple real capitalism not the fake version.
DeleteThe problem is this will wipe out the same people who pull the strings behind the scene so it will never happen. Instead we are seeing attempt for a controlled system reset.
The game is rigged for a very very long time - illusion of choice called democracy, manipulated markets etc.
We are living in a fake world..... long story.
What I find wierd is that these are not regular markets anymore. Everyone is just waiting for the printer to turn on again so stocks can start going up. It doesn't make any sense.
DeleteMarket breadth behaves like we have intermediate term low and heading now into a high. We know this from cycles and now the indicators are confirming it. The problem is the price is going nowhere some sideways corrective price action which means we should see one more leg down. In fact the final capitulation phase is missing for completed leg lower.
ReplyDeleteSo far we have three zigzags, a new moon the end of the month for a high so triangle b-wave is good looking option - https://invst.ly/y7n6b
A last low for futures expiration in June?
DeleteKrasi, would a penetration/close of SPX price above May 17, 2020 near-term high (of triangle) negate this current "read"/perspective? Thank you.
Delete"2020" above should have been 2022 instead.
Delete@Johnny Williamson yes, maybe flat or something else.
Delete@Anonymous yes FOMC options expiration and full moon for a low.
Thank Kasi, it's really looks like
ReplyDeleteKrasi, they go out of the canal so we see the bottom?
ReplyDelete