Trading trigger - buy signal, the price broke above MA10 at last, but it is time to look for a high already.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term a low in a few weeks or we saw it this week.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - a-b-c double zig-zag or the move is completed - difficult call.
Intermediate term - I see W-x-Y with complex double zig-zag for Y=W. The trendline is broken now waiting for a low and some kind of MA200/trend line test in summer.
Long term - We saw the high, if we are lucky this is b-wave, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - strong turn higher looks like a bottom or one more lower low with divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - hit very overbought level.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - turned up.
Bullish Percentage - turned up.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned up.
Fear Indicator VIX - still moving in a range.
Advance-Decline Issues - close to the overbought level, but lower high.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - we should see 20d high next week and it looks like this will be the fourth one or 10w high.
Week 13 for the 20w cycle, week 34 for the 40w cycle(average length 32-36 weeks). The indices are close to intermediate term low, but we have bearish 10w cycle high so probably one more lower low.
Good stuff Krasi, thank you.
ReplyDeleteWhat is the primary reason your forecast is so bearish about 2023 (other than technical reasons like 4year low)?
ReplyDeleteBecause the current system is dead. Reboot is needed... why do you think we see plandemia(to train the society for the new normal) war and sanction(to demolish the old order).
DeleteWhy all the talk about the great reset, build back better, green new deal.... fancy words for you will loose everything. They are saying it loud and clear and the majority still do not get it.
There will be more crisis this is for sure.... the party has just started.
Refined short term chart - https://ibb.co/mNcpHJN
ReplyDelete- if we see impulse completed it will be way too big for expanded flat it will mean more likely reversal.
- if the move lower is not completed we should see a top today and reversal. In this case the most likely pattern and target is shown on the chart above.
Looks correct as of this morning. Bull trap Friday is becoming the norm.
DeleteSo a close above 4200-4250 is most likely reversal?
ReplyDeleteReversal is if we see wave 4 and 5 and this will be something above 4300.
Deleteif 20 May was 10w low, how can fit a new low for June? it is about your refined short term chart
ReplyDeleteIs it possible 20w low in January and after we have 3 cycles of 10w shorts?, then 20w and 40w low in June?
ReplyDeletethe drop of March 2020 was -30%, this year the same -30%, 2 equal waves
ReplyDeletein nasdaq I mean
DeleteThe most likely cycle count at the moment is this - https://invst.ly/y8u--
ReplyDeleteAll cycles have good average length.
June is lower for 10w low(higher low), July higher for10w/20w/40w high.
Hi krasi, what is your opinion on US10Y?
ReplyDeleteIt looks like wave 3 of C - so in the next months down and up waves 4-5/C to complete A-B-C probably when the stock market makes a low in October/November then bigger correction lower.
DeleteIn nyse I see a neovawe symmetrical from October 2021
ReplyDeleteMaybe... it is so complex I can not say for sure, I am not expert anyway.
DeleteBut yes it looks like zig-zags from a to i and when i is completed we should see sharp decline into 18 month low.
may be wave i finished 5 May
Deleteis there any chance to see 40 week low in july?
ReplyDelete10 months looks way too long to me. We could see lower low as part of triangle or flat, but I doubt it will be 40w low.
Delete