Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - sideways pattern for a while.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - waiting for the decline to complete to make some conclusions. I think when it is complete we should see c/B from the June low. The bearish option is we saw the important high and the decline is underway... so only B-waves(red) of lower degrees.
Intermediate term - the indices are in a sideways pattern, if I am wrong the decline will just continue.
Long term - if we are lucky this is b-wave, if not huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low was completed and it will get very ugly in the next years.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - pointing lower, but it does not feel like reversal.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - moving lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - moving lower.
Fears Indicator VIX - testing the last top.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - the indices should be at 20d low next is 20d high probably around FOMC then we should see 5w low. The surprise will be if this was 20w low only 3 months long instead of four it could happen in sideways patterns.
Week 13 for the 20w cycle. DAX if the B-wave is not complete this is perfect cycle+pattern count.
it might bring a crash in the october period
ReplyDeleteand it might be around 2200 SPX SO A 55% DRAWDOWN
ReplyDeleteCycles and indicators do not suggest potential crash. It should start next week if there will be a crash.
DeleteI am watching the speed of the moves - how long it takes compared to the previous one in the opposite direction (in the case of reversal it should be faster).
US 8 weeks up(Europe 6) up and 5 weeks down so far. So if we do not see sharp decline next week this down move has the same speed or wave degree as the previous up move - with other word sideways pattern.
Krasi can you comment on oil ..... thank you
ReplyDeleteThe direction for the energy sector looks down... oil I think we should see soon pop higher, but this should be only correction than strong decline should follow.
DeleteIf we rally a few days before FOMC, I would think the shorts would pile in. A surprise rally from here with push higher from FOMC would be unexpected, especially if we get up to 4200 again
ReplyDeletePlease advise on TLT long US treasury Bonds ……. Thanks
ReplyDeleteClose to 4 year cycle low ready for RSI divergence on the weekly chart... in the next 1-2 months we should see important low.
DeleteIf you had to pick 1-2 trades over the next 1-3 months, what would those be? :)
ReplyDeleteTrying to find out where you have highest conviction in the forecast based on your analysis.
I trade only indices SP500 and DAX. Learn 1-2 things very good and wait patiently for the next low risk trade instead of searching constantly for the next trade.
DeleteMy lowest time frame is the 10w cycle(the first chart). The next trade with good looking odds is if we don see lower low in the next 2 weeks.
Hi Krasi, lots of mid-term cycle pattern charts suggest that we could be setting up for an important low in September sometimes and rally rest of the year. So far this charts have followed almost perfectly this year. You think we could be setting up for a major rally in the last quarter of this year? of course the decline could resume early next year.
ReplyDeleteWhat you are describing is 20w low in a few weeks next is higher for 20w high. From the high mid-Agust 4 months is Christmas - this is my alternate scenario.
DeleteThan you look the pattern - there is no important low ,there is no completed pattern just two corrective legs with deep retracement which means sideways pattern. In the case of 20w cycles and so much time - triangle.
triangle idea could be great - many thinking fall crash (seasonality!!!) or rally (Santa!!!), market may give neither
DeleteHi Krasi, I have 2 questions..
ReplyDelete1) Until last month, your charts had a 40w high a few weeks ago and 40w low in January. What changed in the price that you now show 40w high in the future?
2) ARKK (representative of the growth sector) started correction much before the indices. It probably doesn't follow SP500 cycles but possibly follows US10Y cycles. Do you think that is true and if so, do you see a higher degree (4year low like TLT) coming up for ARKK?
Thank you for your time and the charts.
1) very high probability for a sideways pattern, but the 40w high still could be the top in August.
Delete2) ARKK has high correlation with the indices, I do not see anything to suggest important low.
Thank you. ARKK and many growth stocks peaked in Q1'21 so I assumed that was the start of the decline vs Q4'21 for SPX.
DeleteI think 10 August was 10w low, so next month 20w low and maybe 18 month low too
ReplyDeleteIt is moving too slow for that, it does not fit. Something dramatic should happen this week and the next one like 10% decline - there is no signs for that.
DeletePartial mobilization in Russia, Iran unstable, Germany on the brink of a complete disaster, federal reserve stubbornly idiotic in rising interest rates in spite of a recession now, US dollar climbing against all currencies and against gold, it is a recipe for A big surprise to the downside , for the stock market. Isn’t it? I bet for a big crash soon
ReplyDeleteI forgot England with no moral compass now that the Queen is dead, and France’s Macron completely dépassé, it all adds up to the pudding!
DeleteAnd what about Donald Trump who would like to be Adolf Hitler, going down in flames by the judge he has chosen that says you can’t have your cake and eat it too!!!! So long for delays in justice ad aeternam, he will be finally prosecuted for rebellion and sedition against the United States of America and if it was for Ulysse Grant , he would have been put rapidly out of service.
DeleteJRL - I will recommend this post to you... https://etrworld.substack.com/p/the-market-will-do-what-the-market-351
DeleteFor high treason
ReplyDeleteCrash would be a a buyable event and the bear would be quickly over. Slowly burning to the ground over years would be far more painful. Look at AAPL, still near it's highs.
ReplyDeleteJust watched the US Fed meeting announcement / Powell speech, presser. Powell performed beautiful Cirque de Soleil-worthy contortions around even SAYING the "R" word, versus even addressing the issue with any brevity. Not much different than forever classifying inflation in the US as "transitory. Clueless.
ReplyDeleteback to 3700 thanks to the big Powwow
ReplyDeleteSecond chart white scenario - https://invst.ly/z0da-
ReplyDeleteIt looks like 5/c/c running now - https://invst.ly/z0okw
DeleteSecond Fibo target pointing to the same level - the wave of lower degree
What do you think is the reason that VIX/UVXY has stopped shooting up even on days like these?
ReplyDeleteI am not expert on volatility... but this is another confirmation that we have corrective move
Deleteinteresting... so you see no crash tomorrow? more fed speak at 11amPST... sitting at 78.6 on many indices and a stones throw away from June lows
ReplyDeleteThe DAX showing the same https://invst.ly/z0t2m
ReplyDeleteKrassi, S&P 3700
ReplyDeletelooks like 20w low and perhaps something more
ReplyDeletetoday should be the day if they are gonna rug pull to the upside
ReplyDelete#stockmarketcrash trending on fintwit :)
ReplyDeleteI think on Monday or Tuesday
ReplyDeleteKrasi, what's next? :-) QQQ almost at 200WMA, SPX a bit more to go.. Can it hold? :) VIX has finally jumped but million dollar question is whether this is the start or the end.
ReplyDeletepowell at 2pm today, more dr doom or mr patient and flexible?
ReplyDelete