Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term higher for a few weeks.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the same like last week - zig-zag higher part of a bigger double zig-zag.
Intermediate term - the pattern is not clear at the moment, I am watching this two options.
Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave with c-wave to follow.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - still positive, oscillators turned lower nothing bearish so far.
McClellan Oscillator - close to zero, reseting after overbought levels.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower, around 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - above 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - moving lower with small push higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - between zero and overbought nothing interesting.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - close to 20d low. Maybe one more 20d cycle for 10w low... it depends on which index you are watching - which low you start counting from.
Week 14 for the 20w cycle high. Most obvious 18m low is in October... I have the suspicion it could have been in June.
Thanks Krasi. For the intermediate, what do you predict in the upper, more optimistic, scenario after B? Do you expect it to follow the same trend as the lower B/b wave but with higher trend line?
ReplyDeleteAfter B-wave C-wave will follow C=A or C=1,6xA. The only difference is the starting point.
DeleteIf we are close to 20w high, is it not more logical to think that we will decline until February at 20w low?
ReplyDeletelike August to October
Yes, this will happen after the 20w high, but this should take a few weeks.
DeleteTomorrow 830 am economic numbers and 2pm FOMC minutes. Something is going to finally happen
ReplyDeleteNothing happened
DeletePre-holiday, "nothing burger."
DeleteI wanted a turkey burger
DeleteGDX well on its way to the H&S bottom minimum projection of ~31.00
ReplyDeleteIn theory this should be 20w high - https://invst.ly/znru2
ReplyDeleteThanks Krasi, maybe the China protests kick it off.
DeleteI think your 10w? is not right because in that case 15 November had to be 5w and 20w high.
DeleteThere is no 5w high between the two 5w low.
10w low in 2-3 weeks
Delete