Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips, we have major top. Intermediate term - close to the next high.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the pattern looks like a-b-c which is almost completed at MA200.
Intermediate term - the pattern is not clear at the moment, I am watching this two options. If you step back and look at the big picture you will see move down for 5.5 months and sideways move for almost 5.5 months 1-2 weeks missing. That says it all down and a pause one more down is missing. This move up is weak and corrective - it will be nice to see b-c-waves up next year, but the other options B-wave top or e/B-wave are not so nice... careful with longs.
Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low B-wave was completed and multi year decline has started. If we are lucky it is lower degree b-wave with c-wave to follow.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - some small divergences, still strong levels.
McClellan Oscillator - double divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - at the 70 level short term divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - strong above 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - complacency is back, at the trend line connecting the previous 3 lows.
Advance-Decline Issues - weakness short term divergence.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d low and higher into 20d high. Counting the 20d cycles highs gives us 20w high next week.
The lows are not very clear. As I wrote do not expect to see clear 10w low the 20w cycle is dominant like the previous one. It is just a guess where it is... I am not sure where it starts September or October.
Week 15 for the 20w cycle high very close to the top of this move. Most obvious 18m low is in October... I have the suspicion it could have been in June - where the strong reaction started.
Thanks Krasi. Please can you elaborate on the logic behind long term view? Why do you think we are heading for multi year decline? Is that based on technical analysis or a more broad view?
ReplyDeleteIn the meantime, Krasi's last long-term update (June 5, 2022, found in the Archives section above), might be helpful to you. Cheers.
DeleteBoth... the current system is doomed just the end is postponed making it worse.
DeleteAnd pretty good technical explanation if you want one - http://blog.wavetrack.com/shock-pop-drop-inflation/
Thank you both. Very helpful!
DeleteAnother more general question.....have these technical analyses methods become less accurate as more and more trading is algorithm based? Or has it had no impact?
DeleteImpact only for intraday trading, for the longer time frames the tools like TA,EW,cycle work fine nothing changed.
DeleteHi Krasi, is your view now that we may have 3-5% max upside here if not already topped and then straight to 3000 and below in 2023 with minimum retrace along the way? Thanks
ReplyDeleteFor the top yes, to the downside is the favorite option, straight lower... it should take 9 months.
DeleteKrasi, are you heavily short at this point or waiting for a break lower?
ReplyDeleteNo, the minimum is possible completed pattern at the right time and this conditions are getting satisfied as we speak.
Delete