Trading trigger - buy signal, day 47 at intermediate term high.
Analysis - long term sell the rips. Intermediate term - lower 4-5 weeks expected.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it looks like two impulses with long sideways move for b-wave in the middle. Look at RSI broken trend line and testing it with divergence.
Intermediate term - simple pattern w-x-y/B from October completed. Alternate something complex for the B-wave completing in September - example mega triangle from June.2022, or something else.
Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - extreme greed, a lot of complacency, indicators pointing higher but weak.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal with divergences.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - complacency higher than the ATH.
Advance-Decline Issues - heading to overbought level.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - at 20d high which will complete 20w high.
Week 13 for the 20w cycle low, week 18 for the 20w cycle high. The cycles of higher degree are not perfectly clear.
Yes yes
ReplyDeleteThanks Krasi
ReplyDeleteGreat…imminent move down coming…can’t wait
ReplyDeleteBear market, lol
ReplyDeleteCaptain "Canals" is back, LOL!
DeleteWhen we see the lower low do not forget to come back and admit how stupid you are.
DeleteBe the first one, all of this smart traders will suddenly disappear as always.
Karsi. May I have your opinion how long more before the reversal takes place. this crazy bull is really powerful/
ReplyDeleteIt is explained above, I can not nail the day.
Deletethank you krasi. maybe cpi quick selloff and recovery and one more pop into the genius retard fed chair speech on wednesday before we turn south. judging by all the nasty comments here the coming decline which should bottom before 4th of july holiday will be a la machete style. we'll see.
ReplyDeleteJP
A riojan aldean trader thinks SP 6000 because we have in the wave 3 of 3 of super cycle de elliot
ReplyDelete3 of 3 of super cycle what a joke - riojan aldean trader is another clueless wanna be EW expert....
ReplyDeletewho is silly know Lady S?…or you
ReplyDeleteOf course LadyS predicting bull market at the top not for the first time when this is just corrective move which will be fully retraced. Just wait and see.... this game repeats over and over
DeleteHonest question. Why did you guys ignore the obvious trend reversal last year? Was it bias from your analysis? Emotions? So many technical indicators showed a reversal and it's like people ignored it. Same of Twitter. Even worst than sitting out some actually shorted it. The reversal will come (probably soon). There will be plenty of time to short. Can anyone explain?
ReplyDeleteMy dear friend, if every trader could successfully predict and follow every trend, we would be all rich by now and not writing comments on this blog :-)
DeleteIt depends on your time frame. My time frame is the 4 year cycle so there is no reversal.
DeleteIf your time frame is a few months there is reversal last year.
Last year at the low I said this is important low 18m low and I had to explain several time why - there were no believers and it was very quite none of this "smart traders".
Now I am calling the end of this "reversal" of course there is no many believers and it is full of smart and brave guys... market gurus.
Nothing new under the sun this game repeats over and over... at every top fresh meat newborn "traders" ready to lose money without clue how the market works... getting tired of this bullshit year after year.
At the end the 4 year cycle will play out as always and the "reversal" will be fully retraced.
Today NDX touch the top canal
ReplyDeleteHi Krasi, is the high that you show in late summer the next 18m high?
ReplyDeleteOr are you saying the current high is 18m high?
As I am writing the last few weeks the highs are not very clear. I think we will se the same like the previous 4y cycle high 2018-2021 - it divides in two not three.
DeleteThe end of the current correction higher will be the middle of the 4y cycle high.
I would rather look for three 40w cycles and not 18m high.
Or you can stick to the theory and say 18 months from January 2022 so this is 18m high.
DeleteS&P 4380, NDX 15000
ReplyDeleteSo disappointed I came across this board 5 years back which fed into my bearish bias…so wrong every month, except when Covid came out….
ReplyDeletePatience. This market has major head winds.
ReplyDeletendx 20000 very soon
ReplyDeleteDo not forget SPX 6000
Deletetop today :)
ReplyDeleteYou have made it very clear that we would not hit a new ATH first. Zero probability I believe you said. Among calling people stupid this whole "bear market rally". I'm still trying to believe. So what happens if we hit a new ATH? Cycles don't work? Your analysis doesn't work? It's all rigged cause it didn't go our way?
ReplyDeleteAgreed, there is no trigger for this market to suddenly crash 500 points, sometimes you have to admit your wrong and move on.
ReplyDeleteHockey stick UP, hockey stick DOWN .... just a matter of time.
ReplyDeleteDon’t hold your breath
ReplyDeleteCan’t wait for Nice chart that shows 4400 then down this weekend
ReplyDeleteAs Krasi said it's very hard to predict what day/week/month/year this will top, but it is topping, that's a fact!
ReplyDeleteHope you are right
ReplyDeleteThis could go to 6000 and still be in a process of topping. That is the beauty of cycles/EW.
DeleteNice try to look smart, If it is corrective it will be fully retraced even if it is 6000 end of story - like it or not.
DeleteIn 2020 that is exactly how it worked. Smart guys like you did not look so smart after that - silence, all disappeared.
Guess what will happen again - the same, all this brave and smart guys will disappear including you and I will not hear a word.... until the next high in 2025 then all of you will be smart and brave.
The herd is so stupid it is unbelievable....
So basically your saying if we hit a new ATH before the lower low you are stupid? You did say zero probability. You also called people stupid for suggesting it.
DeleteI'm on your side, saying exactly what you just said!
ReplyDeleteThat's the beauty of EW/cycles, you win/lose either way!
ReplyDelete3700-3800 in July
ReplyDelete3200 in 2024
DeletePer Bloomberg this morning: "Retail traders become most bullish (%-wise) since November 2021." Therefore, huge bull market to come - no worries, mates/matettes!
ReplyDeleteI guess next week will start pullback….if not then maybe the following week…chart is going to be great move line up to 4450 then drop
ReplyDeleteAI is the new crypto, I'm looking forward to all that hot air to escape. Nvda at 200x earnings. Yeah ok guys👌
ReplyDeleteDear Krasi... I'm a long time reader (circa 10 years), just wanted to bing my support...it's all over the same thing again and again ... and it'll end a usual, hope you're made of steel and treat those comments as mere signals, useful in their own (one dimensional and short-termisty way) way! good luck!
ReplyDelete