Weekly preview

Decline into 10w low has begun, as I wrote do not expect crash. I suspect we have 18m cycle which will count better as three longer 20w cycles 5-5.5 months each. In this case the next low should be around mid-August... now waiting to see how the decline will develop.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal just triggered, the trend lines were broken most likely decline into the 10w low has begun.
Analysis - long term sell the rips. Intermediate term - decline into mid-August expected.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - the move up is over count, double zig-zag or impulse it does not matter. Something lower begun, it is too early to forecast pattern.

Intermediate term - double zig-zag w-x-y/B(white) from October completed. If you allign the pattern with important cycle lows/highs the more likely pattern is zig-zag w-x-y(yellow) with triangle X and inside triangle e-wave.
Waiting to see how the decline will develop.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned lower, but nothing dramatic so far.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower, in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - very high complacency.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower, in the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - close to 20d low and next week we should see 20d high. I bet on extended 5w cycle part of extended 10w/20w cycles.

Week 4 for the 20w cycle. We do not have clear 40w low... probably this three longer 10w cycles are part of something bigger. Maybe instead 2x40w cycles we will see 3x20w longer cycles 5-5.5 months each overall 15-16 months which is the average length for the 18m cycle. If we see well defined low around mid-August than we will have two of them and it will be a confirmation.