Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips. Intermediate term - topping, important high completing the correction from the October low.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - many combinations possible. Some see this as 5/c I do not think so - very long and shallow wave(April-May) not very likely for wave 2. Either we have double zig-zag as usual or the previous high was the top.
Intermediate term - some kind of w-x-y/B. Waiting to see the next 1-2 weeks where to pinpoint the top. I will not be surprised if it is behind us.
Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned higher, but not after reset to expect sustainable move - just topping and divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero, divergences so far.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, divergences.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned higher.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned higher.
Fear Indicator VIX - higher low, short term divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned higher, divergences.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - now at 20d high, next is decline into 20d low.
Week 5 for the 20w cycle. We do not have clear 40w low... probably this three longer 10w cycles are part of something bigger. Maybe instead 2x40w cycles we will see 3x20w longer cycles 5-5.5 months each overall 15-16 months which is the average length for the 18m cycle. By the way we have an important high every 5 months +-2 weeks too.
Thank you much for your efforts/thoughts on the blog, Krasi. And I admire your fortitude/patience through the "Anonymous" potshots. Sisu.
ReplyDeleteBTW, all four major U.S. equity indices are nicely set up for bearish divergence between higher price and lower parameter/indicator levels on the daily chart. So good potential for at least short-term downtrends across the board.
ReplyDeleteHello, thanks for writing post every week even in summer time. What are your thoughts about Dax? Are we going below late 2022 lows in that also?
ReplyDeleteIf you have noticed I do not give projections because the pattern is not clear, I rely more on time(cycles).
DeleteIn the case of DAX - if we have flat correction the target is the 2022 low, if it is not a correction probably this https://invst.ly/10jx0e with target MA/support.
I think the anonymous crowd get frustrated when Krasi says one week the move down has begun, and it goes higher and then the next week he leads with price went higher as expected.
ReplyDeleteI agree, to a degree. "Lady S" and the like expect Krasi to be both a "Magic 8 Ball" and an ATM, providing real-time, exact forecasts for the markets, while not doing "the work" themselves. Krasi, print money for me, now! Ergo my above comment about his fortitude and patience with such expectations and nonsense. Trading the markets is not an exact science - one's TA expectations must evolve as the markets do.
DeleteThe crowd does not bother to read at all, quote from last week - "next week we should see 20d high".
DeleteThe crowd is high again and I am telling again tomorrow follows detox and it will hurt.
The same in 2017,2019,2021,2023 guess the next year - 2025 the next 4y cycle high.
I am listening the same bullshit over and over every two years. I do not pay attention anymore.
LOL see u at new ATH
DeleteAmen, Krasi.
DeleteLOL I will not see you at the low... as usual.
DeleteApparently they are easily frustrated.
ReplyDeleteTensions are high and we have a nice strong daily rsi divergence on the spx. A little higher perhaps, but this would be a good time for a rug pull with the majority on holiday this week ☺️.
ReplyDeleteDon’t expect any fortune telling on markets…when it is going higher than expected say it
ReplyDeletekarsi. do you mean no more low now? and up all the way to 2025 ATH?
ReplyDeleteNo, first 4 year cycle low then the high in 2025.
Deleteok thanks. if that's the case, for rookies, it will seems ok to long bits along the way down now. since it will recover in 2025. correct?
DeleteThe time for long was in October at the important cycle low now it is time to take profits. The next time for long is at the next important low roughly in 6 months.
DeleteTo see market down the dollar have to go up
ReplyDeleteIn your Long term that what you said, so will see
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think about NDX?
ReplyDeletehttps://ibb.co/bzrHXZV
DeleteWhat is your view on China markets? HangSeng, CSI300 Thank you.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/10ktxs
DeleteSo ndx to lower then 10400?
ReplyDeleteA 31% drop from today's close is 10,400...
DeleteThe most obvious pattern is flat so in this case around the previous low.
DeleteHello Krasi what do you think about Natural Gas? Thanks for the answer
ReplyDeleteMove lower... two options - lower low with divergences to complete the decline from 2022 or from the March low is a diagonal so deep retracement to test the low.
DeleteIf everything else moves lower indices,commodities etc. the first case looks more likely.