Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips. Intermediate term - topping, important high completing the correction from the October low.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - now we have two zig-zags with triangle in the middle. Some are trying to count impulse c from b(red) we saw iv/c flat and final wave v/c/y/B has started. I am not convinced.... have not seen impulse for a long time, but lets see what happens.
Intermediate term - some kind of w-x-y/B or a-b-c/B better visible on the NDX - at the end only the labels are different.The indicators are showing divergences
Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - oscillators turned lower, lets see continuation or divergence will follow.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal with divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal, reached overbought level.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - double bottom.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - not really clear maybe 20d low on Thursday and final 20d cycle high has started to complete the 20w high.
Week 3 for the 20w cycle? We do not have clear cycles - if I stick to the average length we have 10w/20w cycles shown above. In this case there is no clear 40w cycle low - it happens when the cycle of higher degree is dominant in this case the 18m cycle.
For the highs most likely we have 4y cycle consisting of two longer cycles instead of 3x18m cycles like the previous one 2018-2021 with high in the middle 2019.
Thank you Krasi
ReplyDeleteWere these the same cycles that told you to short in December?
ReplyDeleteNo, at least two degrees higher 20w vs. mid-4y high see the charts.
DeletePoor Krasi, like all the other analysts in every western country, each of them was thinking of a big short and like all analysts, they have long since failed.
DeletePoor sheeple dumb as a brick, but thinking they are the smart money as usual at the top and this repeats at every top.
DeleteNothing has failed, but you are too dumb to see it blinded by complacency greed and arrogance.
Another smart ass which will disappear at the bottom.
Tbf to Krasi, he did say this will be topping for a good 1-2 years.
DeleteThe next important top is now not in 1-2 years.
DeleteWith what is happening between Russia and Ukraine, the American neoconservatives of the Biden administration cannot allow the West to have financial or economic difficulties at the moment, it would be a setback, because Putin would have caused the difficulties, with the various embargoes . The FED has received orders from Yellen's Treasury to refinance the Western banking system with trillions of dollars which in turn finance all the countries representing these banks. Deutsche Bank? Paribas?Unicredit?
ReplyDeleteThe financial market of the rich is supported by an invisible hand after Covid. The Davos accords in my opinion foresaw both Covid and war between Russia and Ukraine. Expected and supported. From the laboratories in January 2020 this new flu came out that was curable with an anti-inflammatory Brufen 600 and which instead they treated by putting helmets on people's heads that were useless. We needed antibiotics and anti-inflammatories like all respiratory diseases, millions of people would have been saved, but there were other projects against us. WEF research the problems of the world there.
ReplyDeleteJesus Christ!
DeleteTrading in a financial market that has been rising for 3 years thanks to central banks and is likely to flash crash in 2 weeks, like in February
ReplyDeleteStill have no idea how this just suddenly crashes, lasting several months. There is no real trigger for it!
ReplyDeleteIt does need to be a crash.
DeleteNo more buyers is enough for reversal - there is no need for a trigger or event.
Plenty more buyers out there though
DeleteSome data or just perception?
DeleteI wokld say exactly the opposite
She drop. Iwm weekly bear pennant will show the way. 🐻
ReplyDeletePretty clear looking at different indices not only RUT, but it is easier to ignore it and say hey look how strong is NDX.
DeleteThere's that black swan I was looking for to come - Fitch downgrading. That ought to shake things up.
ReplyDeleteGo Fitch!
DeleteZero chance this fitch is black swan
ReplyDeleteThat aged well.
DeleteMarket will eventually price in the huge number of people who are disabled over the last 2 years. Check disability stats. 3.2 million added
ReplyDeleteKrasi, in your long-term updates, you normally show the plot of the junior miners via GDXJ. Does that mean that that is the vehicle you use to play the precious metals arena, and if so, can you give your reasoning for employing that etf versus the majors (GDX)? Thanks much.
ReplyDeleteNo particular reason probably more volatile and better visible pattern.
DeleteP.S. In the EU I can not trade US ETFs
I appreciate the detailed response, sir. Carpe diem.
Delete