Weekly preview

Bearish weekly candle, decline into 10w cycle low is running. The RSI trend line was broken decisively so the leg from the March low is over or best case one more high with divergence.
From pattern perspective mid-June was the first time with possible completed pattern and a top, last week was the second time.
In June market breadth indicators were in buy mode now they turned into sell mode.
The big question mark are cycles - they are not very clear. Two approaches are shown below - stick to average length with dominant 18m cycle and no clear 40w low and second extended cycles with 20-25 weeks length. In the first case this is the top and the leg lower has another 2-3 months to go in the second scenario it should complete soon and make one more high with divergences.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips. Intermediate term - important high completed the correction from the October low.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - probably zig-zag lower, too early to forecast it... not a big believer in the impulse count.

Intermediate term - some kind of w-x-y/B or a-b-c/B - at the end only the labels are different.
The indicators are showing divergences, RSI broke the trend line so the leg from the March low is over.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - with sell signal.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower below 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower below 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - spike higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower in the middle of the range.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - should be close to 5w low.

Week 4 for the 20w cycle? We do not have clear cycles:
- if I stick to the average length we have 10w/20w cycles shown on the chart above. In this case the next 20w cycle is running, it is around the low of the first 5w cycle with three more to go. There is no clear 40w cycle low, it happens when the cycle of higher degree is dominant - the 18m cycle.
- counting important highs/lows - in this case we have very long 20w cycles and the next low should be in 1-2 weeks.