Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - the indices turned lower to complete the 4y cycle. Intermediate term - close to a low or we saw it and the next high around the second half of September.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - probably a-b-c completed or w-x-y/ugly impulse... w4 retracing 62% is very unusual.
Intermediate term - Intermediate term - some kind of w-x-y/B or a-b-c/B - at the end only the labels are different. Now turned lower and most likely the C-wave is running.
Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - the same like last week just pointing lower with no signs of a low or oversold levels.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - moving lower, in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - pointing lower, close to oversold level.
Advance-Decline Issues - around oversold level.
Fear Indicator VIX - up and down, no fear not to mention capitulation.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - we saw 5w high this week. Expect 10w low in the next 1-2 weeks or we saw it already.
Week 7/23 for the 20w cycle. Visually I expect 18m cycle consisting of three longer 20w cycles(week 23). On the chart above I will stick to the theory and count four 20w cycles(week 7).
The highs do not have average length too. I think we have 4y cycle high consisting of 2 cycles instead of 3x18m cycles like the previous one 2018-2022 with a high in the middle.
Thanks Krasi
ReplyDeleteKarsi. looks like market is turning up again. does your count indicate a max high this round?
ReplyDeleteI do not give price targets because I do not see clear pattern.
DeleteThis move up is so far corrective zig-zag making 5w high so it is not so bullish.
When do you expect 5w high? Thx
DeleteMost likely today the 20d cycle is already long enough - https://invst.ly/1182ar
DeleteKasi, do you think we are going to see one more high, because of the weaker dollar?
ReplyDeleteYes, first 10w high then lower.
DeleteKrasi and Lady S agreeing on the trend...no good......no bueno..... :-))
DeleteDo you think we are going to see higher then 4607 from 27.7.23?
ReplyDeleteMaybe test of the high... slightly higher high if the impulse below plays out
DeleteIt looks like a-b-c higher.... the alternative impulse - https://invst.ly/1188rt
ReplyDelete