Weekly preview

Very choppy price action this week so nothing really new - working on a bottom.
Because of tech stocks SPX looks weaker with possible impulse lower, but if you look at other indices the decline looks like corrective wave 4. Example with DJT it will make perfect wave iv/c/B for a huge flat from the top in late 2021, DJI the same story just not so well visible.
Looking at other assets like USD/BTC one more low/high will look great for completed pattern. The USD needs one more decline to complete a-b-c pattern and exactly the opposite for BTC one more high for v/c/B.

Short said the real decline should start after the next high, when all assets are aligned and ready for reversal. Even if we have SPX with impulse lower expect deep retracement and divergence between NDX/SPX and DJ.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips. Intermediate term - important high completed the correction from the October low.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - possible impulse 1/a lower or just another w-x-y we will know more next week.

Intermediate term - some kind of w-x-y/B or a-b-c/B - at the end only the labels are different.
Probably the price will find support around MA50.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - pointing lower with sell signals.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - pointing lower, below 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - pointing lower, below 75.
Fear Indicator VIX - correcting lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - pointing lower, in the middle of the range..


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - it looks like 5w low to me.

Week 5 for the 20w cycle? We do not have clear cycles:
- if I stick to the average length we have 10w/20w cycles shown on the chart above. In this case the next 20w cycle is running, it is around the low of the first 5w cycle with three more to go. There is no clear 40w cycle low, it happens when the cycle of higher degree is dominant - the 18m cycle.
- counting important highs/lows - in this case we have very long 20w cycles and the next low should be this or next week.
- the 4y cycle high consisting of 2 cycles instead of 3x18m cycles like the previous one.