Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips. Intermediate term - topping, important high completing the correction from the October low.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - it is a double zig-zag after all shown two weeks ago... the other option is questionable impulse.
Intermediate term - some kind of w-x-y/B. The other option is a-b-c/B better visible on the NDX
Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - hit overbought level at last.
McClellan Oscillator - touched overbought level and reversed, divergences.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, divergence with the previous high.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - reached overbought level.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - reached overbought level.
Fear Indicator VIX - declining, short term divergences.
Advance-Decline Issues - almost reached overbought level and turned lower, divergences.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d/5w high next is decine into 20d/5w low.
Week 7 from the last 10w cycle low. We do not have clear 20w/40w cycles - since the August high/October low we have cycles longer than 20 weeks too long for 20w cycle too short for 40w cycle something in the middle. Maybe instead 2x40w cycles we will see 3x20w longer cycles 5-5.5 months each overall 15-16 months which is the average length for the 18m cycle.
It is the same with the highs - at the moment the indices are at such high again, from the August high we have cycle lasting 25 weeks and now second extended cycle at week 23.
Thanks as usual for your important work.
ReplyDeleteThanks very much Krasi
ReplyDeleteIf the trading signal is a buy, why are all your charts showing it going down?
ReplyDeleteAs I said, NDX ATH
ReplyDeleteNo you said this is bull market - it is not you will be wrong like 2019. This is B-wave like 2019.
DeleteNDX, top of the channel, let see if it's the top, almost ATH with divergence
ReplyDeleteYou were right this analysis here was wrong …all the way up
ReplyDeleteWhat is wrong that this is B-wave - no, it is not its perfectly fine.
DeleteThe statement from LadyS NDX so strong bull market, my "wrong" analysis no this is B-wave and new highs will not change anything.
Not for the first time the same in 2019 and she learned nothing.
Of course she and you will disappear at the low and we will not hear anything about the "right analysis".
Where is the Cliff?
ReplyDeletecheer up krasi, they will fall
ReplyDeleteI do not have any doubts, it is pretty obvious. As usual the sheeple aka retail traders chose the fantasy pouring record amount of money in stock at the top.... and as usual they will be separated from their money.
Delete