Weekly preview

It took a few days, but we have turn lower. Based on pattern this looks like the top - we have the usual double zig-zag. Looking the cycles I would say one more 20d cycle - we have right translated 20d cycle which usualy means another higher high. So waiting to see what happens in the next 1-2 weeks.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - long term sell the rips. Intermediate term - topping, important high completing the correction from the October low.

P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - double zig-zag w, triangle x(completes in sync with NYSE when it makes its low), another double zig-zag y.
It can extend longer if b/y is triangle too and the index is in the middle of the c/y zig-zag. Right translated 20d cycle points to such outcome.

Intermediate term - some kind of w-x-y/B or a-b-c/B better visible on the NDX - at the end only the labels are different.

Long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - overbought, time for topping and reversal.
McClellan Oscillator - turned lower after short term divergence.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - overbought.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - overbought.
Fear Indicator VIX - turning higher after short term divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - touched overbought level, double divergence.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - extended 20d cycle high, next is 20d cycle low which is already 9 days long so right translated. Probably 20d low around FOMC. Right translated 20d cycle and trying to stick to the average cycle length points to one more 20d cycle high to complete 20w high.

The longer cycles especialy 40w cycle high/low are not clear. If I try to use the average length for the 10w/20w cycles the result is this shown on the chart. The question in this case is why there is no 40w/18m high around the end of March instead we have 3x20w cycles. The only answer I have - the same like 2019, 4y cycle consisting of two longer cycles instead of 3x18m cycles.

Week 2 for the 20w cycle? We do not have clear cycles - if I stick to the average length we have 10w/20w cycles shown above. In this case there is no clear 40w cycle low - it happens when the cycle of higher degree is dominant in this case the 18m cycle. For the highs most likely we have 4y cycle consisting of two longer cycles instead of 3x18m cycles.