Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - the indices turned lower to complete the 4y cycle low. Intermediate term low and higher for a few weeks.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - no change, a completed and b running the question is how long it will take.
Intermediate term - no change, a low at the support area and b-wave running.
Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024. Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - moving higher.
McClellan Oscillator - declining after very overbought level.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - pointing higher.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - moving higher.
Fear Indicator VIX - declining.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - a few days higher as expected and this should be at least 5w cycle. In this case decline into 5w low should follow.
Less likely one more 20d cycle to complete three longer 5w cycles and 20w high(both scenarios shown on the chart).
Week 2 for the 20w cycle. Rising into 20w cycle high currently at week 15.
There is no 40w high between 40w low of October 2022 and June 2023
ReplyDeleteThis is not a typical 18m cycle it is much longer. There is three 40w cycles and the 4y cycle high will divide in two not three. I wrote about this, but your right it is not on the chart and after a low a high should follow.
DeleteThe correct chart 8+6+6 months for the 40w cycles - https://invst.ly/1280tj
i think we should turn down pretty soon from here, today or post cpi tomorrow. important top here i think. decline into early december could be very strong. we'll see.
ReplyDeleteJP
Cpi tomorrow
DeleteOnly corrective decline, market breadth should reset.
Deletethanks krasi. maybe forming an ED that can take another couple of days to complete but i don't think much longer. we'll see.
DeleteJP
i think this cpi explosive reaction gives a nice shorting opportunity. running on fumes here..
DeleteJP
About cycles: I think February 2020 was 4y high and November 2015 too.
ReplyDeleteSo we are in a similar situation to 2015, December or January will be 4y high.
If we see new ath it will be more likely.
February 2020 is not 4y cycle high it is just a b-wave the middle of a pattern well visible on other indices.
DeleteCPI, the inflation is cooling, Very nice movement, what do you think? Cup and handle is still funny?
ReplyDeleteI think you will never get rid of your herd mentality.
Deletein defense of lady S. she is the one making money and that is the only thing that matters
ReplyDeleteBuy the "handle" and we will see how much money you will make.
Deletekarsi, what is tha time line of this rally? 4500 now already, anymore upside? can show a probable path on chart of SPX?
ReplyDeletePath is shown above - see the second chart. Time is also discussed even before this move started and can be seen in the post - several weeks probably until the holidays.
DeleteShort term or intermediate term nothing to change. I would change the bigger context of this zig-zag not b/2 rather the final wave of B (daily chart labels). This will explain the explosive move - I was said this the first week it looks like final move not correction.
https://invst.ly/12941t
Seriously..... can you read?
ReplyDeletesecond to that....everyone makes fun, think they are so smart no chance 4500 and hits 4500
ReplyDeleteNot sure what you are talking about, who is making fun.... my charts above are pretty clear no surprises.
DeleteThat's the beauty of EW and cycles, you can be wrong and still be right. All the time!
ReplyDeleteThe beauty of cycles is after 4y high 4y low follows and the opposite, there is no bull/bear market before that.
DeleteThe beauty of EW is you can judge if a move is corrective or not and you know what follows despite that you can not predict how the correction will look like.
Perfect example is 2019 corrective wave in the middle of a decline into 4y low - despite all the strength fully retrace - EW and cycles predicted this perfectly despite all the "experts" and all the stupid comments like this. Four years later 2019 is repeating....
The sheeple will never listen it is easier to deny - you can not predict the future exactly so you can not predict anything..... eternal morons.
Krasi, from March 2020 to October 2023 3 years and 7 months, is it posible a surprise of 4y low ?.
ReplyDeleteIt is in the average duration
The low is an year ago, this is just some intermediate low...
DeleteWhat do you mean by a year ago? Which one are you referring to
DeleteOctober 2022
DeleteHi Krasi, I hope you are well. Wanted to ask about your opinion on GBPPLN...
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/12a4sa
DeleteBig Thanks
DeleteThanks Krasi. Appreciate your work. In the above summary, you state that "Analysis - the indices turned lower to complete the 4y cycle low". You also state that "4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024"
ReplyDeletePlease can you clarify.....are you saying that the 4 year cycle low was October 2022 (as you do in one of the above comments) or that the 4 year cycle low is likely to be in Q1 2024?
The low should be in 2024.
DeleteIn the comments I asked why should be counted completed 4y cycle now when there is much more important low in 2022.