Weekly preview

The expected wave up from last week played out... almost done. Now we have pretty obvius two impulses higher for a zig-zag a-b-c.
The question is - is that all or is it part of the usual double zig-zag. From pattern and cycle perspective there is enough for a high, but market breadth looks like in the middle of a move not a top. If this is the top this should be wave 2 of C impulse for a flat correction... not very likely. I would say the odds are higher for a double zig-zag into year end.

Another interesting point - this could be the final wave to complete wave-B as a triangle. Some hints - the pattern makes sense at last with double zig-zag wave-A and triangle, strong wave typical for final wave not 2/b explained this at the beginning of the move, most of the "magnificent 7" are completing the fifth final wave from their lows last year with weekly and monthly RSI divergence, the rule of alternation - it is not likely that both waves A and C of a correction look the same starting with weak wave lower, two years between the highs like 2018-2019 now 2022-2023 for half 4y cycle high.


It looks strange the triangle, but it is because of the tech stocks. Look at NYSE or RSP(equaly weighted SPX) one more zig-zag higher and we will have triangle retracing 68%, overall pattern and cycle will look very good... or keep dreaming about cup with handle.


TRADING
Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - final wave completing the correction and turn lower to complete the 4y cycle low. Intermediate term low and higher for a few weeks, probably into year end.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - completed the zig-zag, more likely part of a double zig-zag.

Intermediate term - there is two options w2 of C(very low odds) or e-wave completing the B-wave.

Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low in Q1 2024.
Very long term - most likely huge double zig-zag from the 2009 low. If we are lucky this is lower degree b-wave(green) and there is one more high. If not multi year decline has started.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - moving higher, in the middle of a move... not a top.
McClellan Oscillator - second lower high.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - moving higher.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - moving higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - moving higher.
Fear Indicator VIX - testing the low.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - third 20d cycle completing the third extended 5w cycle. Next should be decline into 5w low.
Either we have average 20w cycle high consisting of 3x5w extended cycles or we will see one more 5w cycle for extended 20w cycle.

Week 3 for the 20w cycle. Rising into 20w cycle high currently at week 16 discussed above.
Long term the previous 4y cycle high is repeating 3x40w cycles/two years for mid-cycle high(2018-2019 / 2022-2023) and down into 4y low.