Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - intermediate term high and a few months lower.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - 2,62 extension, I have not seen such clean impulse for years... who knows maybe this time it will play out.
Intermediate term - zig-zag testing the top.
Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low. Alternate this is the top of wave-B from 2009.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - double divergences...
McClellan Oscillator - divergence and turned lower.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal with double divergence.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - touching overbought level 70 with double divergence.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - very weak with double divergence.
Advance-Decline Issues - touched overbought level and turned lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - testing the lows with divergence.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - the 20d cycles are not very clear, we should see 5w cycle low and a few days later 10w high.... or this is the high.
Week 29 for the 40w cycle. Probably 20w low at week 20 in March and expected 40w cycle low in June/July. As I wrote many times visualy it will look like three extended 10w cycles. This is 18 month high with divergences.... just saying for those with the ullusions that all is great.
DXY will be up while SPX down?
ReplyDeleteYes, usually they move in the opposite directions, but for important moves not day to day bases.
DeleteBoth of them down
ReplyDeleteSo now we are going to 5360?….before the big crash?!
ReplyDeleteI can not give such targets, the big crash will occur after 2025 not now... and for this decline the final wave should be the biggest the second half of the year.
DeleteSPY to 533, that will be the top
ReplyDeleteNow it is clear top this week…right and then down
ReplyDeleteRight Krasi?
ReplyDeleteWeek 8 is the usual time for 10w high in this case... I do not believe we will see impulse
ReplyDeleteWhat about NDX?
ReplyDeleteTriangle it looks like. Push up tomorrow
ReplyDeleteso we hit 5328 or something like that? are we expecting pull back over the next week or two before next move up....
ReplyDeleteNo, this is the top what ever we see in the next 1-2-3 days when the 20d/5w/10w cycle high is completed - https://invst.ly/14yxts
Deletebloodbath has begun, see you mid june
ReplyDeleteJP
stop is clear at today's high. 1% stop loss against 10-15% potential profit.
DeleteJP
bounce is too strong. may have one more high to go. covered.
DeleteJP
Weekly divergences for Nasdaq, Dow, and S&P (with R2K, swing failure) .... check. Now just need the same indices divergences to transpire on the daily charts, in a week or two. Bingo.
Delete