Trading trigger - neutral signal, oscillating around the MA.
Analysis - intermediate term high and a few months lower will follow.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - possible corrective pattern a-b-c with b-wave triangle. Alternate w-wave zig-zag and now in x-wave.
Intermediate term - intermediate term top and the first wave lower.... a few months lower should follow.
Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low. Alternate this is the top of wave-B from 2009.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - in a sell mode, taking a breath at the moment.
McClellan Oscillator - oscillating around zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - moving higher, close to overbought.
Fear Indicator VIX - retracing lower.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - 20d low and now close to 20d high. Probably slightly extended 5w cycle high, alternate complex corrective pattern until the second half of May for 10w high.
Week 27 for the 40w cycle. Probably 20w low at week 20 in March and expected 40w cycle low in June.
Speculation if the current 18m cycle looks like the previous one with five cycles - at least the first two cycles seem to have the same length.
No comments here in a week's trading? Can't believe that's not a "tell" for something ...
ReplyDeletethis has only been posted a day
DeleteThanks. Late night, no glasses, yada, yada ...
DeleteI think he posted before Fridays pump so we should be close to target
DeleteKrasi could you please do an analysis for Bitcoin
ReplyDeleteBTC has high correlation with the indices so I expect the same - correction and higher but after the elections.
Deletekrasi, does it make sense to have the next 40 week low in june (as you show it) but the final 40w/80w/4.5yr low in late january or early february 2025 instead of october 2024? thank you for all your work.
ReplyDeleteJP
Yes, this is what makes sense. October/November should be 40w high.
Deletegreat thanks. i got confused with the chart labelling.. it looks like we are finishing wave c of B which could be terminal or part of the rising wedge with wave d and e to complete it. we'll see.
DeleteJP
Great call…market up again
ReplyDeletedont comment, go long with all you got and come back in 4 weeks and update us all just how it went for all, money where mouth is
Delete19 April was 20w low - 28 March only 10w high and early June will be 40w high
ReplyDeleteAnd where is the 40w low?
DeleteOctober 2023 was 40w low, August 2024 too and June 2024 40w high
DeleteUnrealistic, way too long cycles once ok several in a row is just wrong.
Delete11 months high 1 month - then what? another 10 months higher for the next 40w? - unrealistic.
Krasi predicted this move up past 5150 and these geniuses are saying the count is wrong. Give it a week.
ReplyDeleteYour dreaming…5150 from 5125 does not count
ReplyDeleteThe second chart is what is happening to a T, the only difference is it went higher which is totally normal in this market. What dreaming?
DeleteHi Krasi! Does the current move invalidate your short term analysis from Friday?
ReplyDelete5400-5500 for the top at 40w high
ReplyDeleteSure...
DeleteGreat no one is bearish anymore 😂
ReplyDeletemaybe one more pop into thursday above 5200+ to complete terminal wave c of B pattern and get the bulls a bit more excited.. we'll see
ReplyDeleteJP
looks like the pop started already. if confirmed target would be 5230-45 spx by tomorrow thursday
DeleteJP
Double top?
ReplyDeleteWhat do you say about stive, he thinks we see the low till the year end
ReplyDelete