Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - intermediate term high and a few months lower will follow.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - a-b-c lower and now higher - in theory another leg lower should follow. Alternate the correction is more complex than simple a-b-c.
Intermediate term - intermediate term top and the first wave lower.... a few months lower should follow.
Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low. Alternate this is the top of wave-B from 2009.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - a pause on the way lower.
McClellan Oscillator - around zero.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - retracing lower.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - at 20d high next is lower into 20d low. This correction higher should be 5w high.
Week 26 for the 40w cycle. Probably 20w low at week 20 in March and expected 40w cycle low in June. Projection if the 10w cycle continue with the same length.
Gold long term - at 4y cycle high. First 16y high and major low should be completed before it goes balistic.
The gold "experts" are everywhere explaining you to buy..... at the top of course.
it looks like we may end up with an ED that should top end of this week or very early next week before wave C down begins.
ReplyDeleteJP
Good guess…other ones wrong might as well try this one
ReplyDeletetrading is about probabilities not certainties. if you are not flexible and ready to change your view based on market action you will never last in this business. that's what stops are for and flexibility is key. you probably never traded a day in your life with real money. enough said..
Deleteit still think we may be forming a rising ED into next week to complete wave B before the big C kicks in.
JP
today's (friday) nfp figure will be important. any break of spx 5020 based on a negative reaction to the figure most probably confirms wave B has completed in a form of a triangle and wave C has begun. Otherwise we should keep on rising into next week to complete wave B with an upside target of 5150-5200+ before we complete it.
DeleteJP
Krasi. based on today action on SPX, going up to 5100 and tank to open price below 5050 around 5040, it smell bearish. however, there are many who see the option pricing for the movement as very bullish for the rest of the year. do you see the same thing?
ReplyDeleteFirst predicting the year based on one day is nonsense.
DeleteSecond this move lower is correction of the previous one higher which lasted 18 months and it will take months - at least 0.382x18 or 7 months October/November. Cycles show the same lower at least until this period even early next year is possible.
the price oscillation is crazy, 1 day down and now up again. i am hoping in for a crash to 4600, when can it happen?
ReplyDeleteIt is normal with corrective patterns.
DeleteI do not see a crash, they occur usually at the end not at the beginning.
The next logical target is the support level between 4700-4800.
4700-4800 is good. shd i close all my shorts at that level, or still hold for lower targets for until sept tis yr.?
ReplyDeleteIt is better to close it, this will be 40w low and higher into October for 40w high should follow.
Delete