Weekly preview

It is taking longer to find a bottom - obviously the indices switched to bearish mode. Three weeks lower so it should not last long to see 5w high and another lower low... still not clear if this is a-b-c or 1-2-3, but if we see brief pop higher for 5w high and lower low the decline will look like impulse.
DJ and NDX almost flat for the year, 12 weeks retraced in 3 weeks and SPX holding the line +4%.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal, in the middle of the cycle.
Analysis - intermediate term high and a few months lower will follow.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - zig-zag or impulse... we have to wait.

Intermediate term - intermediate term top and the first wave lower.... a few months lower should follow.

Long term - 4y cycle high the end of 2021, now a-b-c lower into 4y cycle low. Alternate this is the top of wave-B from 2009.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - in a sell mode.
McClellan Oscillator - oversold level and turned higher.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - moving lower.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - moving lower.
Advance-Decline Issues - moving lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - moving higher.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - the indices should be at 5w low and I expect something higher next week.

Week 25 for the 40w cycle. Probably 20w low at week 20 in March and expected 40w cycle low in June.
Speculation if the current 18m cycle looks like the previous one with five cycles - at least the first two cycles seem to have the same length.

USD long term 8 year cycle highs and lows. Between the lows(red) and the highs(blue) there is powerful rally. Between the highs and the lows there is long sideways phase consisting of three legs. This should continiue until the next major high 4x8y cycles.
In the middle of the 8y cycle low there is 4y cycle low (the circles) and I think we saw such a low - just on time when the indices should decline and Gold is at 4y cycle high. I think the USD started the move up of the sideways corrective phase.