Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - important top which could be the price high for the 4y cycle.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - 4 legs so far... waiting for more price action to confirm zig-zag or impulse.
Intermediate term - reached support the price and RSI trend line(weekly) - I expect brake lower after short living bounceTwo Fibo levels of different degrees reached - very high probability the double zig-zag from October.2022 is completed.
Long term - DAX/DJ/NYSE/SPXEW two zig-zags higher with tops at month 15/14 right on schedule for 18m high, next is decline into 18m low. DAX - two zig-zags with the same size and tops right on schedule for the 18m high.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - oscillators turned lower the trend following still pointing higher with divergences.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal with multiple divergences.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower below 70.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower below 75 .
Advance-Decline Issues - turned lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - spike higher.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - maybe some kind of bottoming - first 20d high followed by 5w low short after that....
The cycles 10w/20w/40w/18m deviate from the usual length... caused by the AI bubble. It is better to look at other indices - I think we have 18m high late March and we have topping process several months next is turn lower into 40w low and later continuation into 18m low.
P.S. synchronized view with the other indices.
Hi Krasi, thank you. If we are about to have the 5th wave down, would that imply that it will be extended? Wave 1 and 3 have been equal lengths.
ReplyDeleteI am seeing 40w low to 4800…then back up….highly doubtful on pull down - pull back is over
ReplyDeleteChart shows pullback on DJ to 36,000 before bounce - I hope this is right for once
ReplyDeleteDow is closing in on highs again….must be the sheep moving in it
ReplyDeleteStupid sheeple caught with the pants down... any "smart comments"?
DeleteWaiting for the more to “ downside in the short-term to play out”….but seems hopeless
ReplyDeleteC wave today. Krasi mentioned it could be 3 or 5 waves down. It was 3. This kickback is the correction and further down should be the next play. If so next week will start it.
ReplyDeletea-b-c lower(alternate 5) and now a-b-c higher - https://invst.ly/15ukad
ReplyDeleteis abc higher over? now just lower ahead until election?
ReplyDeleteNo, in the post above I am explaining that I expect a high around the elections.
DeleteIf A = C then the target is 5300 where the 100 ma is - correct?
ReplyDeleteEquality almost reached probably two impulses lower for a zig-zag - https://invst.ly/15vko3
DeleteYes we ended the day with bear flags everywhere, maybe by Monday it's over
DeleteHi Krasi, can you provide a short and medium term forecast for NDX? Do you expect 5w low soon?
ReplyDeleteCongrats Krasi, it's here
ReplyDelete