Weekly preview

The week played out as expected - bounce from MA50 and 20d high then another lower low which should be 5w low. Next we should see bounce from MA100 and 5w high followed by lower low 40w cycle low.
The trend is changing and the retail "investors" aka sheeple still do not want to accept it buying the pullback while sharks like Buffett are selling.


TRADING
Trading trigger - sell signal.
Analysis - long term down into 18m low. Intermediate term lower into 40w low. Short term higher into 5w high.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.

TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - most likely zig-zag a-b-c, alternate double zig-zag w-x-y.

Intermediate term - bounce from MA50 and the trend line followed by break lower. The leg higher from October.2023 is over.

Long term - VIX the trend has reversed double zig-zag from 2020 completed with double zig-zag wave Y from October.2022 with double divergence and broken trend line.

MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turning lower and multiple divergencies.
McClellan Oscillator - below zero.
McClellan Summation Index - buy signal, multiple divergencies.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - buy signal.
Bullish Percentage - turned lower, multiple divergencies.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned lower, multiple divergencies.
Advance-Decline Issues - pointing lower.
Fear Indicator VIX - spike higher and very important tren line has been broken.


HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - we should see 5w low then 5w high.

The cycles 10w/20w/40w/18m deviate from the usual length... caused by the AI bubble. It is better to look at other indices - I think we have 18m high late March and we have topping process several months now heading lower into 40w low and later continuation into 18m low.