Trading trigger - buy signal.
Analysis - long term down into 18m low. Intermediate term possible 40w low.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - zig-zag lower now another a-b-c zig-zag higher... they are part of a bigger pattern not clear at the moment.
Intermediate term - the broken trend line is being tested as expected. Interesting is both legs are 0.786 of the previous one. If this is not b/x wave than we have complex pattern for y/Y.
Long term - double zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - turned higher, there is no oversold levels so this is not sustainable low and new bull run.
McClellan Oscillator - above zero.
McClellan Summation Index - turned higher.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - in turned higher.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - turned higher.
Advance-Decline Issues - turned higher.
Fear Indicator VIX - retracing lower after the spike higher.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - it seems we have the 10w low and now higher into 10w high.
The cycles 10w/20w/40w/18m deviate from the usual length... if you stick to the theory the 18m high should be in March, visualy it should be in the next 2-3 months.
Probably we have the expected 40w low and next is the 40w high.
Your charts switched from expecting 18m low to 18m high. What caused this sudden change in the pattern?
ReplyDeleteShould be an interesting explanation 😃
ReplyDeleteObviously no one bothers reading... it is explained sticking to the theory it should be 40w high it is the fifth one, visually there is two highs where you can put the 18m highs.
ReplyDeletePick what you want, the cycle deviate from the theory... explaining at least for a year.
It will be important high at least 40w high..... it could be easily 4y cycle high I will not be surprised.
Hi Krasi, thanks for the explanation. Btw, here you are referring to the upcoming 40w high in 2-3 months, right?
ReplyDeleteYes
DeleteI am more worry about whether it will drop another next week. is it new ATH in 2-3months?
DeleteNew ATH by tomorrow I reckon
ReplyDeleteGreat call after the fact... where were you at bottom? clown
DeleteThis drop was a 3 week non event. That's nothing to someone who got in at 3600 based on Neely's work. Clown
DeleteSo what at 3600 I said we will see at least 6 months higher.
DeleteAgain talking about the past.... clown.
Tell me what will happen in the future after the non event? so I can laugh at "genius" like you who do not see the topping.
How do you define topping? This has been a strong uptrend since oct'22. It may be the top but it has been mostly in the up direction. There is bearish divergence on weekly chart and it will matter someday but other than that, where do you see topping, especially if we just had 40w low.
DeleteThe SPX was 4300 6 months after the Oct 22 bottom. Krasi defines topping as a 1300 point move higher over the course of a further 12 months. But if course this is just all one big correction off the 2008 low. Not an impulse in sight over a 15 year period despite the index going up 350% in that time.
DeleteB wave, C next
ReplyDeleteMore likely this is part of some wedge/diagonal to complete the y wave.
Deletewhat y wave? down? its rate cut rally now! help help!!!!
DeleteThe indices turn lower when the FED starts cutting the rates... but the stupid sheeple are just stupid why should they learn from history.
Deletethen down?
ReplyDeleteSo are we in the final stages of Y? Today looks like another abc up
ReplyDeleteDown and up to complete zig-zag
DeleteNo update this week Krasi?
DeleteHe said lower and then higher. My feeling is this could be the low and next week it's the high.
ReplyDeleteNo changes since the last update - https://invst.ly/169o8e
ReplyDeletegoing to 5700 again???
DeleteKrasi, so basically this is some kind of abc? We are finishing b today?
ReplyDelete