Trading trigger - sell signal, testing MA10.
Analysis - long term down into 18m low. Intermediate term lower into 40w low. Short term higher into 5w high.
P.S. - for a trade both analysis and trigger should point in the same direction.
TECHNICAL PICTURE and ELLIOTT WAVES
Short term - this could be wave 4 but it is getting too long so maybe X wave.
Intermediate term - test of MA50 and the trend line? Test now will mean X-wave(the chart above).
Long term - double zig-zag(from 2020) for y/B at 9y cycle high 2000-2007-2015-2024.
MARKET BREADTH INDICATORS
Market Breadth Indicators - pointing lower, no signs of oversold conditions.
McClellan Oscillator - slightly oversold and retraced to the zero line.
McClellan Summation Index - sell signal.
Weekly Stochastic of the Summation Index - sell signal.
Bullish Percentage - in the middle of the range.
Percent of Stocks above MA50 - in the middle of the range.
Advance-Decline Issues - in the middle of the range.
Fear Indicator VIX - back to normal values after the spike higher.
HURST CYCLES
Short term cycles - we should see 20d/5w high early next week, then lower into 5w/10w low.
The cycles 10w/20w/40w/18m deviate from the usual length... caused by the AI bubble. It is better to look at other indices - I think we have 18m high late March and we have topping process several months now heading lower into 40w low and later continuation into 18m low.
Maybe another 18m cycle which does not follow the rules.
thanks Krasi, if it's X instead of 4, We should expect another ABC? 4800 seems to be an obvious target, but the 200 ma is at 5k, so I suspect an A to 5k, B back up and then C to 4800. Does that make sense?
ReplyDeleteThis is Roberto, but I don't have the proper login on this computer - thank you
X-wave fits better with cycles
Deletewhat does x-wave this mean? SPX is continue going up again. can we see 5600 again?
DeleteX-wave is correction part of a bigger pattern. In this case correction higher then another decline. 5600 maybe next year for 4y cycle high but it is not a guarantee. .... First to see the decline.
DeleteKRASI
so its going down from 5400 now? 4800?
DeleteTwo legs with the same size is in the 4800-4900 area.
Deletethanks. but its not doing that now. going higher again once more. bloody hell.
DeleteHow we fit the 4y lows ?
ReplyDeleteFolowing Hurst cycles 9 year cycle with 4y cycle the coming low but visually dividing in three not two.
DeleteFollowing important lows we have 7 year cycle with 4y cycle low in 2022.
I had a post once about this with charts... look at the older posts if you want.
So is the correction over? Is it safe to go back to the market?
ReplyDeleteNo, the correction will be over when we see 18 month cycle low.
Deletelooks like bullish now. non stop going up so many days.. when will it turn? estimate level?
DeleteIs it possible last week was 40w low?, 41 weeks since October 2023
ReplyDeleteYes, this could be the expected 40w low
Delete5w or 40w?
DeleteCare to update your short and medium term chart with this idea in mind? Thx
DeleteI thought the market would be down this week looks like you were wrong once again
ReplyDeleteThis pullback totally evaporated
ReplyDeleteRetracing the whole drop
ReplyDeleteBig up.
DeleteAs usual smart and brave after the fact.... where were all of you at the bottom?
ReplyDeleteP.S. This is a rhetorical question the answer is shitting your pants and no clue what is going on.
without over complicating it - isn't this just a B wave up to the SPX gap? Then a C falling into September?
ReplyDelete